RADIO
Mike's Week 3 college football betting picks against the spread for Saturday, September 13, 2025. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis & ATS picks from RotoBaller.
I'm off to a pretty good start so far, going 51-42 in the first two weeks of the season. I've also amassed 28 betting points. Let's try to build on that in Week 3! We've got some good matchups once again.
We have 64 total games today, which is a little lighter of a Saturday than the first two weeks. Some of that is due to fewer FBS teams playing FCS teams. You know I won't pick those. I hate huge lines anyway.
If you want me to advise on one of those FBS vs. FCS tilts, you can reach out on X or in the RotoBaller Discord, and I will answer. Let's get to the picks we really care about. There are 43 FBS vs. FBS tilts today!
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 3 (9/13/25)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly, as the case may be.
(4) Oregon (-27.5) at Northwestern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Northwestern's lakeside stadium feels like the perfect location for Oregon to break out the giant inflatable duck again. pic.twitter.com/4kkRbeZOic
— Eric Hovland (@EricJHovland) September 10, 2025
Big Noon Kickoff is going to be at Northwestern's beautiful little lakefront stadium. It only makes sense to bring the duck! That will be more exciting than the game itself.
Pick: Oregon -27.5
(12) Clemson (-2.5) at Georgia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line plummeted after Clemson struggled with Troy. I thought it would rise again since Haynes King is expected to play. Georgia Tech hasn't said anything, but it's all gamesmanship. The Wreck had no reason to risk King last week. They wanted him for this one.
ESPN's FPI gives Tech a better than 50/50 chance to win this outright. I was hoping the line would stay up around a touchdown. I still like the Wreck, but I'm not going to risk as much on it.
Pick: Georgia Tech +2.5
(13) Oklahoma (-22.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels low. The Oklahoma offense looked good against a strong Michigan defense. I would like a little more from the run game, but I'm not going to complain. I feel like Oklahoma blows past this.
Pick: Oklahoma -22.5
Wisconsin at (19) Alabama (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Badgers are going to get wrecked. I'm not sure they're much better than the Monroe team that the Tide just throttled.
Pick: Alabama -20.5
Central Michigan at (23) Michigan (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Justice Haynes will run for 300 yards if the Michigan coaches let him. Bryce Underwood will throw for 400 if the coaches let him. The Wolverines get back on track here.
Pick: Michigan -27.5
Memphis (-3.5) at Troy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
How every conversation starts when Goose Crowder gets to the sideline ... https://t.co/RDCtISBTQT pic.twitter.com/gU3wAkVuOF
— Adam Shinder (@Adam_Shinder) September 6, 2025
Talk to me, Goose! Can you beat Memphis or not? Troy is much better than I thought they would be at the start of the season.
Clemson couldn't get much traction on the ground against Troy. Was that the Troy defense, or Clemson's backs? If it wasn't the Troy defense, Memphis is going to trample them.
Pick: Memphis -3.5
Buffalo (-21.5) at Kent State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Our first taste of MACtion in 2025 is a tough one. I hate that half, but Buffalo is one of the top three or four teams in the conference. I have to believe the Bulls cover this.
Pick: Buffalo -21.5
South Alabama at (24) Auburn (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I know it's cool and trendy to slobber over the Auburn offense, but this feels high.
Pick: South Alabama +24.5
Connecticut (-9.5) at Delaware
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The showing against Colorado in Boulder really impressed people, huh? Not me. Delaware isn't there yet.
Pick: Connecticut -9.5
(6) Georgia (-4.5) at (15) Tennessee
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line opened at -6.5. I liked it better there. The sharps dropped copious amounts of money on the Vols, so it's moving again. I still liked the couple extra points to play with, but I'm not all that confident about it anyway. I'm impressed enough with the Tennessee offense to stay on it.
Pick: Tennessee +4.5
Oregon State at (21) Texas Tech (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Oregon State's defense hasn't been all that bad, but the offense is such a disaster that they keep putting them in horrible spots. Nothing says that will change.
Pick: Texas Tech -23.5
USC (-20.5) at Purdue
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
USC has the most 20+, 30+, 40+, 50+, 60+, 70+, and 80+ yard plays so far this season. This offense has been EXPLOSIVE 👀✌🏻#FightOn✌🏻 pic.twitter.com/Y7pMvz8KSY
— Arrogant Nation✌🏻 (@FightOnRusty) September 7, 2025
I know that Ross-Ade can be tough, but it's not winter, and the Purdue offense still isn't great outside of Devin Mockobee. USC looks legit.
Pick: USC -20.5
Washington State at North Texas (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I had hoped that people would shy away from North Texas, but the line has actually jumped two points instead. You can get nearly even odds on this number. I don't trust this. I feel like North Texas probably wins, but I can't trust that defense.
Pick: Washington State +5.5
SMU (-27.5) at Missouri State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Springfield is going to be rocking with its first FBS game in the city. Missouri State got obliterated by USC. I'm not going to say that the SMU offense is quite that good, but they aren't that far off.
Pick: SMU -27.5
Pittsburgh (-7.5) at West Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
IT'S BRAWL WEEK 🥊
The 108th Backyard Brawl 🆚 West Virginia
Notes & Storylines: https://t.co/1i43dXXFVQ pic.twitter.com/mONGRuzWME— Pitt Football (@Pitt_FB) September 8, 2025
It feels dirty having the Backyard Brawl in September. It feels even worse not having it as a night game. This is further proof that college football doesn't care about us at all. It's such a toxic, one-sided relationship, isn't it? But we can't help ourselves...
Pitt hasn't won in Morgantown since that fateful 2007 game that cost West Virginia a shot at the National Championship. The teams feel almost that far apart now, don't they?
This game doesn't have nearly as much riding on it, but I just can't with West Virginia. I'll lower the bet.
Pick: Pittsburgh -7.5
(14) Iowa State (-21.5) at Arkansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There are a lot of Power 4 teams playing on the road against Group of 5 teams. Almost every spread is like this. I still think Iowa State is good enough to cover, but sometimes things get crazy when big teams head to small campuses.
Pick: Iowa State -21.5
Louisiana at (25) Missouri (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't like this line at all. I know the Cajuns lost to Rice, but this still feels high. I'm not touching this.
Pick: Missouri -27.5
UTEP at (7) Texas (-40.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Good grief. I could see this as 45-0 or 45-7. One covers, the other does not. I hate lines like this...
Pick: Texas -40.5
(18) South Florida at (5) Miami (FL) (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
South Florida has beaten No. 25 Boise State in Week 1 AND No. 13 Florida in Week 2 👀
Since the preseason AP poll debuted in 1950, only 4 schools have started 3-0 with all 3 wins against ranked opponents.
Can they secure the win against No. 5 Miami in Week 3 🤔 pic.twitter.com/08EZRXqIVz
— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) September 10, 2025
This is too many. Just ask Florida.
Pick: South Florida +17.5
Liberty (-5.5) at Bowling Green
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Falcons have been awful this year, but Liberty hasn't been much better. I don't feel good about this, but I can't trust the BGSU offense.
Pick: Liberty -5.5
Middle Tennessee State at Nevada (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Blue Raiders lost to Austin Peay by 20. Nevada narrowly escaped Sacramento State. Are those things really that different? Maybe not, considering the Governors only lost to Georgia by 22.
The Nevada offense actually moved the ball with Chubba Purdy under center last week. That has to count for something.
Pick: Nevada -9.5
Florida Atlantic at Florida International (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The rivalry between Florida Atlantic and Florida International is nicknamed the ‘Shula Bowl’ after Dolphins coach Don Shula who had ties to both programs.
FAU has won the past seven matchups. pic.twitter.com/A9e5reL7GK
— Winsipedia (@Winsipedia) September 10, 2025
Who am I to ignore that trend?
Pick: Florida Atlantic +2.5
Ohio at (1) Ohio State (-28.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Too funny to not post 🤣 pic.twitter.com/NcVcMm8m7f
— THE Bunch of Nuts Podcast (@bunch_nuts) September 12, 2025
These teams haven't played each other since 2010 and have only met three times since 1902. Ohio keeps wanting a shot at the big, bad Buckeyes. Why? The Bobcats have scored a combined 37 points in seven games against Ohio State. They were shut out in each of the first four meetings.
This is Ohio's best shot at a victory, and it's still not a good one. However, that defense has been impressive in the first two games. I'm not going heavy on this, but I have a feeling that Ohio might hang around for a while.
Pick: Ohio +28.5
Western Michigan at (9) Illinois (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Illini are playing like they have something to prove. That makes them a really dangerous team.
Pick: Illinois -27.5
Arkansas at (17) Mississippi (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line has plummeted. It opened at -12.5. This almost feels like an Illinois-Duke situation. The upset pick became so trendy that Illinois went in and made a statement. Arkansas is much improved this year, but they aren't there yet.
I love that the bottom fell out of this line. When the line was over a touchdown, I had a lot less confidence in this. Now I'm going to hammer the other side.
Pick: Mississippi -6.5
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
OLD DOMINION STORMS THE FIELD AFTER UPSETTING VIRGINIA TECH 🚨 pic.twitter.com/UuhMzK5VfG
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 3, 2022
This has become a nice little rivalry in Virginia. Tech has wrecked the Monarchs in each of the last two years, but this line is sinking after Vanderbilt stomped Tech in Blacksburg last weekend.
Both times that ODU has pulled the upset, it has happened in Norfolk. I like the Hokies for anything under a touchdown.
Pick: Virginia Tech -5.5
Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Cam showdown (Cook vs. Brown) is going to be a treat. The Gamecocks winning on the road is the trick.
Pick: Jacksonville State +3.5
Appalachian State (-3.5) at Southern Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels like a trap for App State. Southern Miss still has most of the Sun Belt-winning Marshall defense from 2024. The Mountaineers only scored 20 points on Lindenwood last week.
Pick: Southern Mississippi +3.5
Florida at (3) LSU (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
For all of the success that DJ Lagway had down the stretch for the Gators last year, this is still his first career SEC road start. Crazy, huh? I don't see this ending well in Death Valley at night.
Pick: LSU -7.5
(16) Texas A&M at (6) Notre Dame (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I have been very impressed with Marcel Reed so far. I still think the Aggies win this.
Pick: Texas A&M +6.5
Eastern Michigan at Kentucky (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Kentucky offense has been a total disaster with Zach Calzada under center, and it doesn't appear that they have a better option. Then again, EMU may be the worst FBS team. I hate this line so much. There's no way I'm touching this.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +24.5
Massachusetts at Iowa (-35.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm not tweeting this to be a hater, I'm tweeting it because it's unbelievable. Since 2023, Iowa has played 29 football games. Number of times an Iowa quarterback has thrown for...
200+ yards: 2 games
150+ yards: 9 games
Less than 100 yards: 11 games
Less than 50 yards: 2 games— Alex Gookin (@_AlexGookin) September 8, 2025
The Big Ten Network has made this available to the masses, but I would strongly suggest skipping this one if you love anything about football. You won't see anything good here. That goes for betting on it as well.
Pick: Massachusetts +35.5
New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is rising, so hurry if you want it below 10 (and avoid paying a lot of juice).
Pick: Louisiana Tech -9.5
East Carolina (-7.5) at Coastal Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Coastal has not looked very good this year, but I don't like that half. Then again, Coastal got creamed by Virginia, who lost to NC State, who were in a dogfight with ECU for the entire game. It's weird to have four degrees of separation in Week 3 already.
Pick: East Carolina -7.5
Vanderbilt at (11) South Carolina (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line speaks volumes. It says that Vandy dominating the second half in Blacksburg resonated more than Carolina beating the birds in Atlanta. We know that Diego Pavia has that killer instinct, but he hasn't come up with that big road win that everyone thought was coming after the takedown of Alabama.
This is becoming another trendy upset pick. The line has plummeted five points already, and it wouldn't shock me if it gets under 3. That's too much movement for me. This usually doesn't end well, but I'm going to wait until it gets under 3 to submit my bet. It's heading that way.
Pick: South Carolina -3.5
(20) Utah (-23.5) at Wyoming
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I like Utah a lot right now. I think they are good enough to win the Big 12 (16), and might do so easily. That said, this Wyoming defense is tough, and this is a very tough place to play. This is way too high.
Pick: Wyoming +23.5
Duke at Tulane (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I don't buy this. I know that Tulane struggled with South Alabama in Mobile, but they want to show Darian Mensah what he's missing by chasing money.
Pick: Tulane -1.5
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Tulsa lost to New Mexico State last week. This is probably too low.
Pick: Navy -14.5
Akron at UAB (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Akron hasn't scored a single point in two games. I don't care how bad UAB has looked. They are nowhere near Akron bad.
Pick: UAB -11.5
Air Force (-4.5) at Utah State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Utah State beat UTEP and hung around with Texas A&M. I don't know that they lose to Air Force at home.
Pick: Utah State +4.5
Minnesota (-2.5) at California
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has been really good for Cal, but he still hasn't been all that sharp. Minnesota's defense is going to get after him, probably with good levels of success. Oh...and Cal isn't stopping Darius Taylor.
Pick: Minnesota -2.5
Boston College (-13.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Stanford offense is in reverse. Dylan Lonergan might be the Best BC quarterback in 40 years. BC rolls here.
Pick: Boston College -13.5
Texas State at Arizona State (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. Texas State beat one of my Group of 5 favorites (UTSA) on the road last week. The Fun Devils got cowbelled in StarkVegas. This is too high. I don't think the Bobcats win outright, but this is going to be uncomfortable for Sparky.
Pick: Texas State +17.5
I only maxed out two bets this week, but I put a season-high 10 bets in on four points. I had 16 three-point bets, 13 two-pointers, and went for the minimum six times. I'm kind of a chicken this week. There are a lot of spots I like, but not enough to max it out.
