RADIO
We had a very interesting Week 1 capped off by what many are saying is the end of an era. I won't go that far, but I also was not surprised. There were some things that surprised me, including Coach Prime's Ralphies having their way with the Toadies in Fort Worth. It's time to recap the week that was and get to the one game on Friday that needs to be picked.
We only have three games before the weekend thanks to the NFL dominating their minor leagues on their opening weekend this week. Only one of those features FBS vs. FBS teams. Hey, at least they are both Power 5 schools.
I won't pick FBS vs. FCS schools. Those lines usually aren't offered up until Friday at the earliest. Judging by what most FBS teams did to their inferior foes in Week 1, they won't be very lucrative for you either. Besides, I don't want to pick more 40+ point spreads than I have to.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 2 (9/7/23)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Illinois at Kansas(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Our only FBS vs. FBS contest takes us to Lawrence, Kansas. You know...that place where they announced Jalon Daniels as the starter on Thursday over the stadium speakers, then proceeded not to play him? That Lawrence, Kansas. Daniels is likely to play in this one. Vegas believes it too, which is why the line is here.
Illinois had serious issues with Toledo's Dequan Finn, who is very similar to Daniels in skill set. Daniels has a little better top-end speed, but my point is that Illinois is going to have serious issues with Daniels and this backfield. I'll take Kansas.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from this season so far. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Kent State at Central Florida(-36.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This UCF offense looks even more potent than it was last year, I realize this is an inferior opponent, but this offense translates well to the Big 12(14).
North Carolina State(-14.5) at Connecticut: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know most view this as a disappointment for the Pack, but I'm not sure it was. UConn is better than we think. However, N.C. State not recording a passing touchdown is a problem. Brennan Armstrong avoided mistakes, but I have serious questions about their receivers.
Nebraska at Minnesota(-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was an impressive showing by the Nebraska defense, but Minnesota's offense lacked any kind of explosiveness. Was Nebraska's coverage really that good, or was Athan Kaliakmanis just missing everything? I tend to think it's a little of both.
Single digit possession games record at Nebraska
Bo Pelini 20-11
Bill Callahan 10-7
Mike Riley 7-10
Scott Frost 5-22
Matt Rhule 0-1 pic.twitter.com/7YONSngRsO— CFB Home (@CFBHome) September 1, 2023
It was the same old, same old for Nebraska. They lose another one-score game after being ahead for most of the second half.
Florida at (14)Utah(-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I have watched enough of Utah to know that even though Cameron Rising is important to this team, the defense is far more important. Florida is probably a six-win team at best this year, but a dominant Utah front made them look worse than they really are.
Central Michigan at Michigan State(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a strong debut for Noah Kim and Connecticut transfer Nathan Carter seems to have taken over the backfield. This was a nice, methodical win for Michigan State, and exactly what they needed to open this season.
Miami(OH) at Miami(FL)(-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Redhawks are not a bad team, but the Hurricanes made them look that way. Miami is not "back" just yet, but they played more as a team than they have in years. Things are heading in the right direction.
Louisville(-7.5) at Georgia Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Oh man...that Louisville defense...this says it all.
Louisville Defense pic.twitter.com/2CKEErtL6b
— no context college football (@nocontextcfb) September 2, 2023
It's a shame because the offense looked good. This was still a win for the Cardinals, and honestly, they only really let things get out of hand in the second quarter. The Cardinals D came out strong after the half and only allowed six points the rest of the game. James Thrash is a freaking beast. I'm glad he's going to get more national coverage this year.
Stanford(-3.5) at Hawaii: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Stanford has their quarterback in Ashton Daniels. On a weekend where a lot of new quarterbacks struggled, Daniels had a strong game. The Stanford run defense was impressive, but Brayden Schager still threw for 355 yards and three touchdowns without an interception.
East Carolina at (2) Michigan(-36.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Michigan didn't do anything wrong. It was just a methodical beating, spread be damned.
Virginia vs. (12) Tennessee(-27.5) at Nashville: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This wasn't really about the game for Virginia. Just getting back on the field was a victory for them. It should get easier for the Hoos, but taking a beating physically as well as being emotionally spent never feels good.
Colorado at (17) TCU (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I didn't expect an outright win, but at this point, I wouldn't be shocked if Colorado wins 10 games. A bowl is suddenly the floor in Boulder. Who would have thought that for a team that won one game last season? That's the Deion effect.
You could have attended every Colorado home game last year for $222.
But the get-in price for this Saturday's game against Nebraska is $476.
Colorado also gained 147,000 new social media followers this weekend.
Deion Sanders is worth every penny.
(Ticket data via @TickPick) pic.twitter.com/ciag7gNPHz
— Joe Pompliano (@JoePompliano) September 5, 2023
I’ve got neighbors flying the CU flag now…in North Carolina #Deioneffect
— Scott.ETH (@Sjr05d) September 5, 2023
It's still strange that people are talking more about the effect of Deion than his son Shedeur Sanders. The younger Sanders set a Colorado record with 510 passing yards against the 17th ranked team in the country. We should celebrate that more. Dad had his days in the sun. Now it's time for the son.
Shedeur Sanders officially broke NINE school records in his Colorado debut.
Sanders said that after the game, he received a text saying “don’t be satisfied” from Tom Brady (HOF QB).
Many NFL scouts reportedly believe if Sanders continues to play the way he did last week,… pic.twitter.com/U76Gju2XsJ
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) September 6, 2023
Arkansas State at (20) Oklahoma (-35.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Where in the world did that come from? Oklahoma scored on nine of 11 offensive possessions and scored more than 70 points for the first time since September 11, 2021, against Western Carolina. What impressed me most was the shutout, also the first since that Western Carolina game.
Utah State at (25) Iowa (-24.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Iowa fans got to see the offense score on the first two drives, only to stall out and score 10 points for the rest of the game. Hey, at least the defense is still elite. Something can also be said for Cade McNamara not turning the ball over. Iowa's quarterbacks were turnover machines last year...all three of them.
Ball State at Kentucky (-26.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kentucky scored a touchdown with six seconds left to get the cover. I thank them for that!
Bowling Green at Liberty (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Honestly, the game shouldn't have been this close. Bowling Green's quarterbacks threw five interceptions, and the Connor Bazelak era is likely over before it started. Camden Orth completed half of his 10 passes (Bazelak was 6-for-21) and the threw a touchdown with his two interceptions. Don't be shocked if Orth starts this week for the Falcons. He should.
Fresno State at Purdue (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Smell that? That's Purdue's defense. It's still on fire from Fresno's path of destruction through them.
Louisiana Tech at SMU (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The offense didn't look much different for SMU. Preston Stone led the team to 24 first downs and 457 total yards.
Northern Illinois at Boston College (-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Emmett Morehead likely lost his job this week as well. The Boston College offense took off when Thomas Castellanos took over under center. The Eagles were blanked in the first half before coming back under Castellanos to force overtime.
Akron at Temple (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I knew better. Temple's defense shut out the Zips in the second half to come back and steal a victory. The Zips held E.J. Warner to only 292 passing yards. That's low for him!
(3) Ohio State (-30.5) at Indiana: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This game was never in question, but Kyle McCord didn't have the debut Buckeyes fans were hoping for. Devin Brown didn't look any better, but Ryan Day didn't give him many chances either. The three-headed running back attack is going to be a nightmare for opposing defenses and DFS players alike.
Boise State at (10) Washington (-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If it weren't for Shedeur Sanders, Michael Penix would have the way-too-early Heisman hype all to himself.
Wanted to check out Rome Odunze from a dynasty perspective, and Michael Penix Jr.. Just look at this missle Penix delivers… geeeeez pic.twitter.com/K1LWYzbb73
— Eric (@ekwellsjr) September 6, 2023
When the dust settles on this elite QB class, it wouldn't surprise me if Penix has a better NFL career than anyone in it. Of course, he also has more of an injury history than anyone else in this class. We can't ignore that. NFL defensive guys spend 349 days chiseling their bodies into wrecking balls for QBs and the other 16 days executing.
Rice at (11) Texas (-35.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Okay...I was hoping that Texas would at least try to cover. They were as vanilla as I have ever seen a Texas team look and I don't blame them one bit. Why give Alabama anything to go on?
Buffalo at (19) Wisconsin (-27.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Buffalo's offense might be better than advertised. I also think this might be Chez Mellusi's backfield under Luke Fickell instead of Braelon Allen's. They will both get carries, but Mellusi looked like the better fit.
Massachusetts at Auburn (-35.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Taisun Phommachanh was an absolute disaster against this Auburn defense. Carlos Davis looked much better, but the game was well out of hand by the time he got in there. UMass only converted one third down in the entire game. Auburn's defense wasn't really the problem last year either, but they looked a notch better in this one.
South Florida at Western Kentucky (-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Hilltoppers still covered, but South Florida only allowing 41 points to a high-profile offense like this is a victory. The USF offense also looked good for much of this game. They ran out of gas towards the end, but Byrum Brown looks like he could be a special player.
Forgot to post this Byrum Brown to Khafre Brown 84 yard TD earlier! #USF pic.twitter.com/ccPhRyRr8Z
— FOLLOW: @TSV__1 (@TSV__1) September 2, 2023
California (-6.5) at North Texas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The injury to Sam Jackson V might have been a blessing in disguise for Cal. Ben Finley looked good and Jaydn Ott looked great. J. Michael who?
Nevada at (6) USC (-38.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The USC offense looks better than anyone right now. If the defense catches up, look out!
New Mexico at (23) Texas A&M (-38.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is what one-point bets are for. The Aggies looked better on offense than they have in quite some time. Can they take that to Miami with them this week?
Army (-9.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I never thought I would see Army squander a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. This is just not something that they do. In other news from bizarro world, Army quarterback Bryson Daily led the game in passing yards and Monroe running back Hunter Smith led the game in rushing...
Washington State (-11.5) at Colorado State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Cameron Ward likes his new receivers, but it was holdover (and former Hawaii receiver) Lincoln Victor that led the way for the Cougars in this one. He caught 26 passes all of last year. He already has 11 this year.
Texas State at Baylor (-27.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
You can't blame this all on the Blake Shapen injury. Baylor was down two touchdowns when he got hurt. This was the first win for the Bobcats over a Power Five team. LSU/Auburn transfer TJ Finley carved up the Baylor defense.
BEAT. THE. BEARS.???@TXSTATEFOOTBALL takes down Baylor with a score of 42-31.#TakeBackTexas pic.twitter.com/MJvHjSdaIf
— Texas State Bobcats (@TxStateBobcats) September 3, 2023
UTSA (-1.5) at Houston: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Yes, I think UTSA got screwed on the last play. That was not a first down. That said, the game should have never been that close. The Houston defense did a great job frustrating Frank Harris. UTSA had plenty of chances in this one and kept making mistakes.
Middle Tennessee State at (4) Alabama (-39.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Quarterback controversy? What quarterback controversy? Jalen Milroe proved the job is his.
West Virginia at (7) Penn State (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
It took a while for Penn State to pull away, but Drew Allar looked like Penn State's best quarterback since Kerry Collins. I'm not kidding.
(21) North Carolina (-2.5) vs. South Carolina at Charlotte: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
North Carolina has a defense? Who knew? Obviously not me... The yardage was there for Spencer Rattler, but South Carolina's inability to run the ball and terrible third (4-14) and fourth (0-4) down efficiency ruined the Gamecocks.
Gamecock and cLemson fans taking their smoke breaks together at work today pic.twitter.com/YbrcxqR8Vz
— Brent (@HJhughes79) September 5, 2023
Toledo at Illinois (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This should have surprised no one. Toledo won the MAC last year with basically the same team. I don't think Illinois is any less effective than they were last year. They just got caught in a dogfight with a good team.
Texas Tech (-14.5) at Wyoming: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Everything was going along as planned with Tech up 17-0, then they didn't score again until late in the game. Two overtimes later, they're slinking back to Lubbock in the middle of the night 0-1. Fun stuff happens in Week 1.
WHAT A STRIKE BY #WYOMING
2 POINT CONVERSION FTW NOW pic.twitter.com/SvZlKjYWqL
— ✨College Football ✨ (@CFBspace) September 3, 2023
South Alabama at (24) Tulane (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Carter Bradley got the Jags to hang around for a while, but Tulane's defense took over in the second half. Michael Pratt is fun to watch if you get a chance. Tulane is ranked, so there's no excuse anymore.
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech (-15.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Monarchs hung around for a while, but Grant Wells' methodical picking wore them down enough for the Hokies to pull away.
Sam Houston at BYU (-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This stayed at two touchdowns. The BYU defense dominated the Bearkats in their FBS debut. The SHSU defense wasn't so bad itself. A defensive struggle in this one was not on my bingo card.
Coastal Carolina at UCLA (-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Coastal's defense showed up big after having troubles against the run last season (and early in this game). Sam Pinckney was the best receiver in this game. We have to wonder what this game would have looked like if Dante Moore started this thing.
UCLA true freshman QB Dante Moore (Detroit King)
Helluva debut. pic.twitter.com/btjyNGoMzD
— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) September 3, 2023
Northwestern at Rutgers (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ben Bryant did okay, but the rest of the Northwestern offense was MIA. Gavin Wimsatt may not be the answer for Rutgers, but he is fun to watch.
(18) Oregon State (-16.5) at San Jose State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have changed my pick when Kairee Robinson and Justin Lockhart were confirmed out, but I thought the Spartans would still keep it close. DJ Uiagalelei looked really good in a different shade of orange...
(5) LSU (-2.5) vs. (8) Florida State at Orlando: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have went higher on this one. Playoff Game 1 goes to Florida State. They looked like by far the best team in the ACC in Week 1.
(9) Clemson (-12.5) at Duke: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm not surprised that Duke won, but I am surprised that they won by three touchdowns. Cade Klubnik and the offense didn't look great at times in this one. Would Uiagalelei have made a difference? Judging by the way he played in San Jose the day before, probably. Be careful what you wish for...
My goodness @rileyleonard13_ ? pic.twitter.com/el82imUoga
— Duke Football (@DukeFOOTBALL) September 6, 2023
It's not a stretch to say that Riley Leonard was the best QB on the field in this one.
College Football Betting Season Results
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. I had a solid Week 1 at 23-22 to put me at 27-25 in the early going. After last season, I feel that I need to set an achievable goal. 55% proved to be out of reach last season, so this year I'm aiming for 52.5%.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 3-4 (3-4) = -1
2. 8-8 (11-9) = 4
3. 8-6 (9-7) = 6
4. 2-3 (2-4) = -8
5. 2-1 (2-1) = 5
I gained my first six points of the season and am chipping away at the deficit from a terrible 2022 season. I am down 105 points after six-plus years of adding the confidence points. I intend to get that out of the red this year. Stay tuned!
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