Coaching Matters: Offensive Outliers From Week 7

October 27, 2022

Eli analyzes players who overperformed and underperformed from last week to find potential Week 7 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data for the 2022 NFL season.

This is the seventh week of this series where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on past coaching trends in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 7, we saw stat lines such as the Baltimore Ravens tight end room combining for four targets, the Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver room combining for 378 receiving yards, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back room combining for 14 carries.

After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their playcalling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Running Backs

Byron Leftwich

In one of the most shocking games of the season thus far, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers got pummeled by a Carolina Panthers team that just traded away one of their best players in Christian McCaffrey, losing 21-3. In this game, the Buccaneers running back room struggled as they combined for 14 carries, 43 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, three receptions, five targets, 15 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 129 carries (18.43 per game), 433 rushing yards (61.86 per game), two rushing touchdowns (0.29 per game), 48 receptions (6.86 per game), 58 targets (8.29 per game), 343 receiving yards (49 per game), and three receiving touchdowns (0.43 per game) on the season.

In terms of efficiency, the Buccaneers running back room is well below the pace that we saw from them a year ago as well as Byron Leftwich's career averages. In terms of overall opportunities, they are seeing roughly the number of touches we'd expect from a Byron Leftwich running back room. There's a slight buy-low opportunity here just because the efficiency from this group can't possibly be this bad for a full season, but it's also unlikely that we see much of a workload increase for Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White in the future.

Fantasy players this impacts: Leonard Fournette, Rachaad White, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Giovani Bernard

Indianapolis Colts Tight Ends

Frank Reich & Marcus Brady

The Indianapolis Colts tight end room didn't see a lot of work against the Tennessee Titans as they combined for two receptions on three targets for 10 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season, this group has now totaled 34 receptions (4.86 per game) on 48 targets (6.86 per game) for 378 receiving yards (54 per game) and five receiving touchdowns (0.71 per game). Sunday's performance was disappointing, but the season totals look like they are in the right ballpark of a Frank Reich tight end room. With the team taking more of a committee approach at the position between Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, and Mo Alie-Cox, it doesn't look like any of them are going to be rosterable in the immediate future.

Fantasy players this impacts: Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, Mo Alie-Cox

Baltimore Ravens Tight Ends

Greg Roman

The Baltimore Ravens tight end room wasn't utilized much in the win over the Cleveland Browns as they combined for one reception on four targets for 16 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has now totaled 53 receptions (7.57 per game) on 84 targets (12 per game) for 588 receiving yards (84 per game) and six receiving touchdowns (0.86 per game) on the season. The Ravens' tight end room will undoubtedly have better performances than this past Sunday in the future, but the season numbers are still on the upper end of the spectrum of what we've seen from Greg Roman's tight end rooms in the past. Overall, there's not really a good buy-low opportunity here and if you have Mark Andrews on your fantasy team you should continue to hold and enjoy having a top-tier fantasy tight end.

Fantasy players this impacts: Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Josh Oliver

Decline Ahead?

As mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Cincinnati Bengals Wide Receivers

Zac Taylor & Brian Callahan

The Cincinnati Bengals offense was rolling (doing great) against the Atlanta Falcons this past week as they won the game 35-17. In this game, the Bengals wide receiver room dominated, putting up an impressive stat line of 21 receptions on 27 targets for 378 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 109 receptions (15.57 per game) on 165 targets (23.57 per game) for 1553 receiving yards (221.86 per game) and 11 receiving touchdowns (1.57 per game) on the season.

Obviously, the Bengals' wide receiver room isn't going to put up 378 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns every game. As for the current season averages, they are currently on the higher side of what we'd expect from a Zac Taylor and Brian Callahan wide receiver room. Having said that, this is an incredibly talented group and both coaches are among the best in terms of providing opportunities to wide receivers. Overall, unless you get a crystal clear overpay you should continue to hold the Bengals wide receivers in your fantasy league(s) in this offense – even if they won't be putting up 378 yards every game.

Fantasy players this impacts: Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, Mike Thomas, and Stanley Morgan

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