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Eli analyzes players who overperformed and underperformed from last week to find potential Week 6 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data for the 2022 NFL season.
This is the sixth week of this series where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on past coaching trends in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.
In Week 6, we saw stat lines such as the San Francisco 49ers running back room combining for 11 carries, the Indianapolis Colts' wide receiver room seeing 35 targets, and the Carolina Panthers' wide receiver room combining for seven receiving yards.
After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their playcalling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
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Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
San Francisco 49ers Running Backs
Kyle Shanahan
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 49ers | 20.47 | 89.59 | 0.53 | 3.06 | 3.59 | 20.65 | 0.06 |
| Kyle Shanahan Prior (225 games) | 22.93 | 99.63 | 0.76 | 3.98 | 5.36 | 31.88 | 0.16 |
| 49ers RBs vs. Atlanta Falcons | 11 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
In the Week 5 edition of this series, the San Francisco 49ers running back room landed on the opposite side of this list as they combined for 25 carries, 143 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, four receptions, five targets, 56 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown against the Carolina Panthers. This week, however, is a different story. In Week 6 against the Atlanta Falcons, the San Francisco 49ers tailbacks combined for 11 carries, 28 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, zero receptions, one target, zero receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns.
After this game, this group has totaled 114 carries (19 per game), 507 rushing yards (84.5 per game), three rushing touchdowns (0.5 per game), 11 receptions (1.83 per game), 13 targets (2.17 per game), 114 receiving yards (19 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.17 per game) on the season. Even if you decide to include fullback Kyle Juszczyk's production (four receptions on four targets for 33 receiving yards) this past Sunday was clearly a disappointing performance for the San Francisco 49ers' backfield. Having said that, the good news is that this group should bounce back and there may even be a buy-low opportunity on Jeff Wilson and Elijah Mitchell in your fantasy league(s).
Fantasy players this impacts: Elijah Mitchell, Jeff Wilson, Jordan Mason, Tevin Coleman, Tyrion Davis-Price
Carolina Panthers Wide Receivers
Ben McAdoo
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Panthers | 11.53 | 20.88 | 132.76 | 0.59 |
| Ben McAdoo Prior (60 games) | 13.18 | 22.12 | 171.42 | 1.23 |
| Panthers WRs vs. Los Angeles Rams | 3 | 10 | 7 | 0 |
The Carolina Panthers wide receiver room struggled against the Los Angeles Rams this past Sunday, combining for three receptions on 10 targets for seven receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 47 receptions (7.83 per game) on 98 targets (16.33 per game) for 635 receiving yards (105.83 per game) and three receiving touchdowns (0.5 per game) on the season.
These numbers are well below the 2021 Panthers numbers as well as offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo's career averages. D.J. Moore doesn't look like he's going to live up to the fantasy expectations set for him this year, but at the same time, there should be a bounce-back performance or two coming in the near future. If you can buy low on him, now would be a good time to do so.
Fantasy players this impacts: D.J. Moore, Laviska Shenault, Shi Smith, Terrace Marshall Jr.
Washington Commanders Wide Receivers
Scott Turner
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Football Team | 10.82 | 18.06 | 130.47 | 0.59 |
| Scott Turner Prior (37 games) | 11.51 | 18.65 | 135.65 | 0.51 |
| Commanders WRs vs. Chicago Bears | 7 | 13 | 58 | 0 |
The Washington Commanders wide receiver room had a subpar game against the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football as they combined for seven receptions on 13 targets for 58 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has now totaled 76 receptions (12.67 per game) on 129 targets (21.5 per game) for 953 receiving yards (158.83 per game) and nine receiving touchdowns (1.5 per game).
This was a subpar game for this group, but in all honesty, they were due for a game like this based on the usage and production of Scott Turner's previous wide receiver rooms. There's not really a buy-low opportunity here, and if you have any of the Commanders' wide receivers you should even be open to selling because the season averages are still on the higher side of what we should expect from this group.
Fantasy players this impacts: Jahan Dotson, Terry McLaurin, Cam Sims, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and Dax Mline
Baltimore Ravens Wide Receivers
Greg Roman
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Ravens | 12.71 | 19.82 | 142.35 | 0.59 |
| Greg Roman Prior (131 games) | 9.99 | 16.15 | 126.30 | 0.82 |
| Ravens WRs vs. New York Giants | 5 | 11 | 45 | 0 |
The Baltimore Ravens wide receiver room was non-existent in the loss to the New York Giants this past Sunday, as they combined for five receptions on 11 targets for 45 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season, this group has now totaled 42 receptions (seven per game) on 72 targets (12 per game) for 587 receiving yards (97.83 per game) and six receiving touchdowns (one per game). While Greg Roman's wide receiver rooms generally tend to be among the worst in the league, Sunday's performance was low even for him. Expect this group to bounce back this week against the Cleveland Browns.
Fantasy players this impacts: Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay, Demarcus Robinson, Tylan Wallace, and James Proche
Decline Ahead?
As mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Indianapolis Colts Wide Receivers
Frank Reich & Marcus Brady
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Colts | 10.41 | 16.76 | 128.47 | 0.94 |
| Frank Reich Prior | 11.51 | 18.86 | 143.16 | 0.90 |
| Colts WRs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | 23 | 35 | 240 | 2 |
The Indianapolis Colts wide receiver room went off in the victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars this past week, combining for 23 receptions on 35 targets for 240 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 91 receptions (15.17 per game) on 139 targets (23.16 per game) for 1108 receiving yards (184.67 per game) and three receiving touchdowns (0.5 per game). This group is currently on pace to be the most utilized wide receiver room of Frank Reich's nine-season career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Based on that, there may be some regression to the mean coming in the next few weeks.
Fantasy players this impacts: Alec Pierce, Parris Campbell, Ashton Dulin, Mike Strachan, Dezmon Patmon, and Michael Pittman Jr.
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