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Eli analyzes players who overperformed and underperformed from last week to find potential Week 14 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data for the 2022 NFL season.
This is the fourteenth week of this series where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on past coaching trends in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.
In Week 14, we saw stat lines such as the Minnesota Vikings' running back room totaling 22 rushing yards, the Jacksonville Jaguars' tight end room seeing 19 targets, and the Philadelphia Eagles running back room combining to score three rushing touchdowns.
After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their playcalling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
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Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Minnesota Vikings Running Backs
Kevin O'Connell & Wes Phillips
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Vikings | 23.71 | 102.41 | 0.53 | 4.29 | 5.71 | 28.12 | 0.06 |
| Kevin O'Connell Prior (49 games) | 21.84 | 93.80 | 0.57 | 3.63 | 5.10 | 29 | 0.14 |
| Vikings RBs vs. Detroit Lions | 17 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
The Minnesota Vikings lost to the Detroit Lions this past week 34-23. In this game, the Minnesota Vikings running back room struggled as they combined for 17 carries, 22 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, one reception, two targets, 13 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. This group has now totaled 267 carries (20.54 per game), 1,124 rushing yards (86.46 per game), 11 rushing touchdowns (0.85 per game), 43 receptions (3.31 per game), 61 targets (4.69 per game), 253 receiving yards (19.46 per game), and two receiving touchdowns (0.15 per game) on the season.
Going into the season, we expected the running back room production to drop with Kevin O'Connell calling the plays from previous years when the Vikings had running back-friendly play-callers like Gary Kubiak, Kevin Stefanski, and Klint Kubiak. And that prediction looks accurate 13 games into the season with the Vikings' season averages being in line with head coach Kevin O'Connell's career running back averages. Looking ahead, Dalvin Cook should be valued as more of a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 than the high-end RB1 he's been in the past.
Fantasy players this impacts: Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, and Kene Nwangwu
Decline Ahead?
As mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Philadelphia Eagles Running Backs
Nick Sirianni & Shane Steichen
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Eagles | 23 | 110.29 | 0.88 | 4.35 | 6.24 | 30.18 | 0.06 |
| Nick Sirianni Prior (65 games) | 23.8 | 110.32 | 0.85 | 5.46 | 7.03 | 39.22 | 0.14 |
| Shane Steichen Prior (41 games) | 23.63 | 103.88 | 0.68 | 6.66 | 8.54 | 52.00 | 0.15 |
| Eagles RBs vs. New York Giants | 23 | 177 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
The Philadelphia Eagles were dominant against the New York Giants this past week, winning the game 48-22. In this game, the team's running back room was particularly dominant as they combined for 23 carries, 177 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, three receptions, five targets, 15 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season they've totaled 290 carries (22.31 per game), 1,427 rushing yards (109.77 per game), 17 rushing touchdowns (1.31 per game), 37 receptions (2.85 per game), 48 targets (3.69 per game), 195 receiving yards (15 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns (zero per game).
The rushing touchdown totals are a little higher than what we'd expect from a Nick Sirianni & Shane Steichen running back room, but other than that these season averages are right in line with what we'd expect for the Eagles backfield. Continue to value Miles Sanders as a solid RB2.
Fantasy players this impacts: Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, Kenneth Gainwell
Jacksonville Jaguars Tight Ends
Doug Pederson & Press Taylor
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts | TE Rec. Yds | TE Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Jaguars | 4.35 | 6.41 | 44.12 | 0.12 |
| Doug Pederson Prior (128 games) | 6.96 | 10.16 | 74.86 | 0.55 |
| Jaguars TEs vs. Tennessee Titans | 13 | 19 | 188 | 2 |
The Jacksonville Jaguars' tight end room went off against the Tennessee Titans as they combined for 13 receptions on 19 targets for 188 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 70 receptions (5.38 per game) on 96 targets (7.38 per game) for 737 receiving yards (56.69 per game) and four receiving touchdowns (0.31 per game).
On one hand, it's hard to expect any tight end room to consistently put up performances like the Jaguars' tight end room did this past Sunday. On the other hand, the group's season averages are still quite a bit lower than Doug Pederson's career tight end room averages. While he likely won't have a 30+ fantasy point performance again anytime soon, Evan Engram looks to be a strong tight end play for the rest of the season.
Fantasy players this impacts: Evan Engram, Dan Arnold, Chris Manhertz, and Luke Farrell
Baltimore Ravens Running Backs
Greg Roman
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Ravens | 18.88 | 79.35 | 0.81 | 3.18 | 4.12 | 20.47 | 0.06 |
| Greg Roman Prior (131 games) | 23.16 | 104.51 | 0.82 | 2.48 | 3.45 | 19.76 | 0.10 |
| Ravens RBs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers | 29 | 187 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
The shorthanded Baltimore Ravens squeaked out a win against the Pittsburgh Steelers this past week, winning the game 16-14. In this game, the Baltimore Ravens running back room combined for 29 carries, 187 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, two receptions, two targets, one receiving yard, and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 254 carries (19.54 per game), 1,169 rushing yards (89.92 per game), eight rushing touchdowns (0.62 per game), 33 receptions (2.54 per game), 41 targets (3.15 per game), 152 receiving yards (11.69 per game), and two receiving touchdowns (0.15 per game).
Sunday's performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers was clearly on the upper end of outcomes for the Baltimore Ravens' running back room, but the season averages in general have actually been on the lower end of what we've come to expect from a Greg Roman running back room. If you play in a standard league where the trade deadline still hasn't passed, now is a good time to acquire J.K. Dobbins.
Fantasy players this impacts: J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Kenyan Drake, Justice Hill, and Mike Davis
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