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Buy or Sell: Undervalued and Overvalued Players for Week 13


Today's piece covers a set of players who either should not be available on waivers or will return back there soon. Most of the earlier editions of this recurring buy or sell article have included several universally owned players whose values have been manipulated enough by early season performances. Unfortunately, as we get deeper into the year, the regression fairies come to ruin every savvy owner's fun.

Nevertheless, there is nothing worse than seeing one of your guys continually underperform. However, if that is the case, eight times out-of-ten it is most prudent to hold on until they at least get hot to then sell. Contrarily, do not buy high, unless it is in your best interest to win now and that player fills a particular need.

Anyway, these buys and sells are where your focus should be for this upcoming week. Best of luck dealing.

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Undervalued Players - Week 13

These players could be worth trying to add or acquire as long as you're not paying for preseason value. Ideally, they are just lying around on your wire and you can add them straight up or for a few extra FAAB dollars.

 

Brendan Rodgers - SS, COL

16% owned

Rodgers has been unspectacular at best since his initial call-up, but now, with consistent playing time in the foreseeable future, he has an opportunity to get things going. He is a high pedigree bat who gets to play half his games in Coors, you always take a chance on that. The unfortunate underperformance thus far since his most recent call is mostly due to bad timing. He has started against the elite Dodgers' pitching staff in Los Angeles, which most hitters in the league would struggle against.

I plead you all to hold on with some patience. After the Giants' series in San Francisco, Rodgers will have his first opportunity to start almost every day in Coors next weekend. With Trevor Story's thumb injury sidelining him indefinitely, it would be wise to take advantage of the potential boom that could come over the next few weeks. If Rodgers performs above expectations, there is a chance that he will remain with the team and take over at second base for the rest of the year. This is all worth the speculative add in deeper (12+) team leagues where every single roster spot is not as valuable.

Ramon Laureano - OF, OAK

40% owned

Laureano is absolutely killing it for owners in roto and standard leagues. He has recouped his value throughout the month of June with six home runs, five steals, 13 runs, and 19 RBI. His average is around .270 since June 1 and he has even moved up to fifth in the A's batting order.

Laureano is not a pretty guy to own in OBP leagues, but could still provide value with his counting stats for anyone needy of help in the outfield. The expected numbers are not far off from his current performance and suggest that this is relatively sustainable. Add him if he's still on the wire but feel free to drop if he goes cold for another extended period of time.

 

Jose Martinez - 1B/OF, STL

24% owned

This is a speculative add for deeper leagues that are hitter-needy. Thus far, outside of his slash line, Jose Martinez has been mediocre. There is a good chance that Jose Martinez gets dealt at the deadline to an AL team needy for a DH upgrade. If that were to happen, Martinez would become a near-everyday player and his value would boom. Busch Stadium is mighty kind to Martinez's average but limits his home run ability. Martinez has been a Statcast darling since last season, and could really benefit from a change of scenery along with everyday at-bats.

Rumors may heat up in the coming weeks with the deadline approaching next month, and someone else might jump on Martinez for this potential outcome. Although nothing may come of all of this, with the Cardinals opting to hold on to their best pinch-hitter/bench bat until next season, there is a decent chance that they move him. Add him in all deeper formats if you need the upside.

 

Overvalued Players - Week 13

Overvalued does not always mean SELL. Players here are just showing enough red flags that warrant the overvalued tag and could even be dropped if they have not produced enough.

 

Fernando Tatis Jr. - SS, SD

81% owned

Tatis Jr. is a wunderkind. This guy will be an absolute star for years to come, but the fact of the matter is that he is playing way over his head. You do not even have to look at his expected stats (.230 xBA and .434 xSLG) to realize that thee will be some regression to come. His BABIP is over .400 and he is striking out nearly 30 percent of the time. He should still hit his fair share of dongs and steal bags when he gets on base, but that average will plummet over the next month or so and hurt his runs and RBI as well.

Owners in redraft OBP and points leagues should be more aggressive in trying to trade him than those in roto or standard 5x5 leagues given his low walk rate and high K rate. None of what I am saying here should matter to keeper and dynasty owners, just ignore this as a whole.

 

Eric Hosmer - 1B, SD

72% owned

Nothing against the Padres, but the top-two hitters in their order are definitely overperforming. After the past two weeks, it is prime selling time. Hosmer's been racking up counting stats, but that is only as sustainable as the performance of the players around you. If Tatis regresses as he should, so should Hosmer (value wise). He still struggles to hit enough home runs and does not really run at all. Both his expected batting average and slugging percentage are below his current marks. Not saying that he won't be ownable, but the performances should be much more uninspiring.

First base is a lot weaker than it has been in recent years. Hosmer is a known commodity that could be sold at a decent price. Send out some offers for mid-level starting pitching or maybe some speedy outfielders. He could also be used as a solid sweetener in a deal for a more high-end player.

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