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Break The Slate: NFL DFS DraftKings Lineup Picks - Week 11


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Hey guys and gals! Welcome back to Break The Slate, the article where we try to pinpoint DraftKings plays that have a chance to post huge numbers for us. I'm sure I don't have to tell you guys that this isn't an exact science, but if we stick to a strong process, great results will follow! Thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller, let's dig in and find some huge scores this week!

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 11.

Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 11 Picks

Drew Brees - NO @ TB ($6,900)

It's been a weird year for Drew Brees. He's only played in three full games this season and is coming off his worst performance in recent memory, after a real stinker at home against the Falcons last week. Brees gets a prime bounce-back spot this week against the Tampa Bay Bucs. The Bucs have perhaps most extreme funnel defense we've seen in years, as they rank FIRST in the NFL in yards allowed per rush and DEAD LAST in the NFL in yards allowed per pass. It's truly unreal and I expect Brees to rebound in a big way this week against a defensive unit that has been torched by Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray in consecutive weeks, and enters Week 11 ranked 31st in the NFL in DK points allowed to opposing QBs.

Tom Brady - NE @ PHI ($6,400)

I honestly don't know that I've rostered Tom Brady a single time this year on a main DraftKings lineup build. We know that Brady is capable of monster games, but he hasn't really been called upon to carry the Patriots this season because they've been so dominant in every facet of the game. However, I expect New England to turn to Brady this week in a matchup against a pass-funnel Philadelphia Eagles defense. Philly was a pass defense that we targeted heavily earlier in the season, but they have shored up things up a bit in the secondary as of late. Despite that improvement, this is still a unit that we want to target through the air due to their dominant run-stopping ability. The Eagles rank fourth in the NFL in yards allowed per carry and we can count on Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels - who are, obviously, two of the sharpest and most adaptable coaches in football - to turn Brady loose in order to attack this defense where it is most vulnerable.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: Obviously, Lamar Jackson is in play and a strong option, but I highlighted him in this article last week and wanted to mix things up a bit. On the other side of that matchup, Deshaun Watson and his massive upside always deserve GPP consideration. I would have more interest in Dak Prescott if Matt Stafford was in line to play. If you're looking to save money at the QB position, my favorite salary saver is Kyle Allen at $5.3k in a sweet matchup against the Falcons.

 

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 11 Picks

Josh Jacobs - CIN @ OAK ($6,900)

Oakland's Josh Jacobs is my favorite running back play this week by a fairly wide margin. The rookie out of Alabama has shown flashes of being a truly special player at the professional level. Jacobs is aided by the Raiders run-heavy offensive mindset and he's racked up 168 carries in just nine games this season, which he's converted into 811 yards and seven rushing TDs. His pass game role is a bit more limited than we normally want, but his floor is helped by all the Red Zone work that he gets...Jacobs has 33 carries inside the 20-yard line, which ties him for the fourth-most RZ carries in the NFL. The matchup and projected game environment is about as good as it gets, with the Raiders coming into this one as double-digit home favorites against a winless Bengals team that is DEAD LAST in the NFL in yards allowed per carry. Jacobs comes in at a season-high $6.9k on DraftKings, but I'm willing to pay a premium for him in this blowup spot.

Brian Hill - ATL @ CAR ($4,800)

We are obviously looking for slate-breaking plays in this article, but I don't think that label strictly applies only to players that can score 40 DK points. A great case in point is Atlanta's Brian Hill this week. Hill is primed to suddenly jump into a huge role for an Atlanta offense that will be without Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith. We can't project Hill for 40 points (except in a very extreme outlier performance), but that doesn't mean he can't crush salary-based expectations. At $4.8k, Hill will step into a role on a good offense in which he will almost exclusively handle all of Atlanta's backfield touches (Kenjon Barner will most likely mix in for some of the pass game work). In addition to that volume, he gets to square off against a Carolina defense that is ranked DEAD LAST in the NFL in run defense DVOA. So, while it's not likely that Hill "breaks the slate", he is still a very strong play this week.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: Christian McCaffrey could be in this article every week and the only reason he's not a 'set it and forget it' play is his massive price tag. It looks like a great spot for Ezekiel Elliott this week, he's got a great matchup against a struggling Lions run D and Matt Stafford's absence should only help him. Dalvin Cook's matchup isn't as good, but he always deserves tournament consideration. Outside of these high-end guys and the players highlighted in this week's article, there's just not a lot to love at the RB position.

 

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 11 Picks

Courtland Sutton - DEN @ MIN ($6,000)

This one is not without some risk, as I'm honestly more concerned with Brandon Allen's passing ability than I am with Courtland Sutton's matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, but Sutton snagged five of eight targets for 56 yards and a TD with Allen at the helm in Week 9 - and let's be honest - it's not as if Sutton was playing with a great QB when Joe Flacco was the Broncos' starter. Despite that shaky quarterback play, Sutton has been remarkably consistent this year and has went over 50 yards receiving in eight of nine games. With Emmanuel Sanders now out of town, Sutton should draw the coverage of Minnesota's Xavier Rhodes - which really isn't a bad thing anymore - and this is really a low-key great matchup for him. The Vikings feel like a tough defense (and they are solid against the run), but in reality they stand 30th in the league in DK points allowed to WRs and tied for last in the NFL in TDs allowed to the position. Sutton is surprisingly priced at a season-high $6k, but he's an intriguing GPP option this week.

D.J. Moore - ATL @ CAR ($5,900)

It was fair to assume that D.J. Moore would suffer this season after Cam Newton went down with an injury, but Kyle Allen is showing himself to be a more-than-capable NFL starter. Allen's favorite target has been the explosive Moore. The second-year wideout has been targeted a massive 20 times over Carolina's last three games and has went over 100-yards receiving in their last two. If you're a believer in positive TD regression, Moore should have some coming his way, as he's only reached paydirt one time this season! His chances are buoyed by this matchup against a Falcons unit that has allowed 12 receiving TDs this season and ranks 31st in the league in yards allowed per target to opposing WRs.

Deebo Samuel - ARI @ SF ($4,000)

We'll want to keep an eye on Emmanuel Sanders' availability this week, as rookie Deebo Samuel would become one of the top value plays on this slate if Sanders can't go for the Niners. Samuel had something of a breakout game against Seattle on Monday Night Football last week, with both Sanders and George Kittle ailing. He notched eight catches for 112 yards on 11 targets against the Seahawks and was on the field for 70 of a possible 83 snaps. If one or both of Sanders/Kittle aren't available for the Niners this week, Samuel should once again see very heavy volume against a Cardinals defense that has allowed the fifth most DK points to the WR position this season.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: I don't think I made it clear in the write-up above, but Deebo Samuel is a viable play even if Emmanuel Sanders suits up...he just obviously goes from a 'good' to a 'great' option with Sanders out of the lineup. I've been on a Bucs-receivers kick, so I didn't want to spend more time talking about Mike Evans & Chris Godwin in this week's article, but with Saints DB Marshon Lattimore looking very doubtful, both Evans & Godwin are firmly in play. Like Christian McCaffrey at the RB position, Michael Thomas is without a doubt a superstar play, with his price tag being the only reason for pause. Julian Edelman is in a nice spot, but his season-high $7.6k price tag feels too high relative to his upside in New England's spread-the-wealth offense. Washington's Terry McLaurin is an explosive player in a juicy matchup against the Jets and is only limited by QB Dwayne Haskins ability. Curtis Samuel and Mo Sanu are both rock-solid options in the low-$5k price range. Atlanta's Russell Gage is dirt cheap in a decent matchup and should see increased usage with Mo Sanu and Devonta Freeman out of the lineup.

 

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 11 Picks

Jared Cook - NO @ TB ($4,400)

It is tough to spend all the way up for Michael Thomas this week, but Jared Cook is a great alternative way to grab some exposure to the Saints passing attack. The well-traveled Cook returned from a prolonged ankle injury to post one of his best games of the season against Atlanta last week, reeling in six of his 10 targets for 74 yards. We've already touched on the Bucs funnel defense earlier in this article and this sets up as a terrific spot for Cook. If it weren't for the Arizona Cardinals, Tampa Bay would be last in basically every metric when it comes to defending the tight end position. They rank 31st in the league in DK points and receiving yards allowed to opposing TEs.

Ross Dwelley - ARI @ SF ($3,400)

As we touched on when discussing Brian Hill at the RB position, price definitely matters in DFS, which puts San Fran's Ross Dwelley on my radar this week. With Niners superstar TE George Kittle all but certain to miss Week 11, Dwelley is set to inherit a prime role in a juicy matchup. If you follow fantasy football at all, then you know that the Arizona Cardinals have been an absolute turnstile against tight ends this season. The Cards defense ranks DEAD LAST in the NFL in - get this - DK points, yards, catches, and TDs allowed to the tight end position. Dwelley is a bit raw, but he's a true pass-catching tight end. He played 76 snaps last week with Kittle out of the lineup and was targeted a fairly impressive seven times. In this offense with this matchup, Dwelley has a great chance to outperform his dirt-cheap salary.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: Baltimore's Mark Andrews will probably get some love this week after posting a big game against the Bengals, but he's in a tough matchup against the Texans and is inconsistent due to his limited snaps. Darren Waller has been quiet for several weeks, but I love his chances of breaking out against Cincy. Indy's Eric Ebron is an interesting salary saver after garnering a massive 12 targets with T.Y. Hilton out of the lineup last week.

 

DraftKings DFS Defenses - Week 11 Picks

Oakland Raiders Defense - CIN @ OAK ($3,300)

During the first portion of the season the most obvious team to pick on was the Miami Dolphins, but as the year progresses that honor has shifted to the hapless Cincinnati Bengals, who are the lone remaining winless team in the NFL. The Bengals benched longtime starter Andy Dalton last week in favor of rookie QB Ryan Finley. Finley wasn't horrible, but he did make some understandable rookie mistakes against Baltimore, throwing one pick and losing a fumble. The Bengals spotty offensive line has allowed the seventh-most sacks in the NFL this season and square off against a Raiders pass rush that is fresh off a five-sack performance against the Chargers.

Miami Dolphins Defense - BUF @ MIA ($2,500)

Did somebody mention the Miami Dolphins? I can't believe I'm saying this, but the Dolphins are actually starting to resemble a real NFL team. They don't necessarily have many legitimate, high-caliber players, but this squad is playing hard and with a chip on its shoulder. Over the last two weeks, this Miami defensive unit has recorded four picks, four sacks, and a safety, while only allowing 28 combined points. This week they're at home against a Bills team that has lost two of three, and while Josh Allen has cut back on the bonehead plays this season, we know that the second-year QB is capable of making head-scratching mistakes.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: Defense is ugly this week and there isn't a whole lot that I'm crazy about. My favorite play that falls in between the two highlighted option price-wise, is the Carolina Panthers D/ST at $3k. Atlanta has a better offense than we normally like to target, but the Panthers have racked up 34 sacks this season and the Falcons line has been horrible.

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