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Best Ball Avoids for Fantasy Baseball Drafts

Bryce Harper - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Kev discusses fantasy baseball best ball avoids and potential busts for 2023 drafts. Don't pick these MLB hitters and pitchers in best ball leagues.

Welcome to our fantasy baseball best ball draft avoids for the 2023 season. The fantasy baseball season is right around the corner. For those fantasy managers looking to get an edge on their 2023 leagues, best ball formats are an awesome way to get an early look at where players are being drafted in terms of ADP and evaluate which players have a stock price that is likely not to return full value for their price tag.

One key piece to drafting in set-it-and-forget-it leagues is the ability to take a completely different approach compared to your normal redraft and dynasty baseball leagues. While best ball formats can present the ultimate in risk-reward options in drafts, we often advocate for the opportunity to let your other league members make the mistake of drafting volatile assets.

Here’s a list of five land mines that you can avoid in best ball this season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Fantasy Baseball Best Ball Avoids

Ozzie Albies - 2B, Atlanta Braves

ADP 65.1

Not only did Ozzie Albies deal with a myriad of health issues last season but according to recent reports, he underwent offseason shoulder surgery and is not yet 100%. Luckily, the surgery was a clean-up and not anything extreme but we should take not regardless.

Albies is a talented player who is as good in fantasy as he is in real life at full strength. However, if he is not 100% to start the season, he could not only underperform but fall out of favor in the lineup order. The Braves' lineup is arguably baseball's best and if Albies is hitting in the lower third to start the season, that is bad news for his fantasy value and not worth his top-100 cost.

 

Bryce Harper - OF, Philadelphia Phillies

ADP - 67.5

Bryce Harper underwent Tommy John Surgery shortly after the Phillies' postseason run and his timetable for return is just before the All-Star Break in July according to most recent reports. While this may be true, the likelier scenario is Philadelphia brass holding him out until after the Break if not later, especially in the case that they are safely within the playoff race. The Phillies added star Trea Turner over the offseason and have plenty of young, emerging talent that complements their all-star core. They are likely in no rush to bring back their superstar asset after significant surgery no matter what reports say.

Not only that but there is also the consideration of the performance impact elbow surgery will have on Harper in his first season back. We've seen talented hitters like Corey Seager and Rhys Hoskins undergo TJS in the past and both witnessed serious output dips. Luckily, both hitters regained form once two seasons removed and did not deal with any lasting effects. Harper is a greatly talented hitter but even at a discount, he is unappealing.

 

Dansby Swanson - SS, Chicago Cubs

ADP - 77

Dansby Swanson is definitely closer to the hitter he was between 2020 and 2022 rather than at the start of his career but swapping his place at the top of the Braves offense for the top of the Cubs' offense is quite the dip for an above-average hitter. Swanson's appeal comes in his steady approach and in typical fantasy formats, his ability to contribute across all five categories. Unfortunately, Swanson is now surrounded by an offense that should significantly impact his run and RBI numbers. The Braves ranked 7th in total offense by wRC+ in 2022 while the Cubs ranked 20th--quite the gap.

Swanson could make up part of the difference by stealing more but even so, expected stats suggest he overperformed his average a decent bit (actual .277 vs expected .257). If his average were to dip that much he would completely sink in value and it is feasible given that teams may pitch to him differently with a weaker offense surrounding him.

 

Kyle Wright - SP, Atlanta Braves

ADP - 103.1

Kyle Wright broke out in 2022 after carrying half a decade of prospect hype. Wright was a former first-overall pick who dominated every level of the minors but could not crack the major league rotation due to his lack of command and general inconsistency. After his fourth failed year in the majors, he broke out and performed as a very good SP2. Now, he is priced alongside pitchers who have more than one year worth of fantasy value on their resume.

Not only is Wright's price gaudy, but he also received a cortisone shot in his shoulder and is still ramping up for spring training. There is no news of significant injury, however, he did just pitch a career-high number of innings (180 1/3rd) along with a playoff appearance. Wright is extremely talented and could build on his 2022 breakout but at cost, he is better off avoided.

 

Chris Bassitt - SP, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP - 110.1

Chris Bassitt is another notable mover this offseason. His season in New York was fantastic as he pitched a career-high 181.2IP and produced a stellar 3.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Bassitt is now coming off of his 3rd stellar fantasy season in a row but now, his move to Toronto may reveal the cracks in his armor. Bassitt is not a great pitcher based on underlying metrics such as xFIP and SIERA.

Throughout his career, he has typically overperformed them on the surface which is would be quite notable if not for the fact that his home parks throughout his career (Oakland Coliseum and Citi Field) were the two friendliest pitcher parks in all of baseball.

Chris Bassitt Career Stats Home/Away:

  • Home: 376.1 IP, 2.68 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 16.7% K-BB, 3.87 xFIP
  • Away: 36 1IP, 4.26 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 12% K-BB, 4.61 xFIP

Moving to Rogers Centre would not be as much of an issue if not for the fact that the outfield walls are moving in and creating an even more hitter-friendly environment. Over the past five years, the field has ranked about average for hitters and pitchers (already a downgrade for Bassitt). Now, there is no telling how well bats may play, especially lefties given that right and center field are moving in. Bassitt is not worth drafting at his cost given that he may be closer to a JAG than a top-25 SP.

 

Other Notable Players to Avoid



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POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

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Compare Any Players
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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Mike Trout

Plans to Return on Thursday
Will Smith

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Jauan Jennings

Gets Incentives Added to Contract
Jakobi Meyers

Unsure About Potential Extension
Matthew Stafford

Off Injury Report Ahead of Week 1
Will Smith

Exits With Hand Contusion
Jackson Chourio

in Lineup Wednesday Despite Hamstring Cramps
Sepp Straka

Gets Captain's Pick to Join Team Europe
Christian Yelich

Dealing With Soreness in Lower Back
PGA

Victor Hovland to Make Third Ryder Cup Appearance for Team Europe
J.J. Spaun

Set to Represent Team USA for First Time at Bethpage
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Named to Ryder Cup Team for Second Time
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Dealing With Groin Issue
Shohei Ohtani

Will Pitch "Sometime This Weekend"
Jackson Chourio

Absent on Wednesday With Hamstring Cramp
Roman Anthony

Officially Goes on Injured List
Jauan Jennings

Limited on Wednesday, Expected to Play in Week 1
Malik Nabers

Not on Initial Injury Report
Roman Anthony

"High Probability" Roman Anthony Lands on Injured List
Justin Thomas

Making Fourth Ryder Cup Team Appearance at Bethpage
Ben Griffin

Making First Career Ryder Cup Appearance at Bethpage
Bryson DeChambeau

Set to be Part of Team USA at Bethpage
Jason Adam

to Undergo Season-Ending Surgery
Roman Anthony

Will Undergo MRI on Wednesday
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Bags Double-Double in Losing Effort
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Erupts for 36 Points Against Poland
Luka Dončić

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Stanley Umude Signs Training Camp Deal With Spurs
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Joins Magic for Training Camp
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Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Magic
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Jaguars List Travis Hunter as Starting Wide Receiver, Backup Cornerback
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Leaves With Calf Tightness on Tuesday
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Blue Jays Confident Max Scherzer Will Make Saturday Start Despite Back Tightness
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Leaves Early With Back Injury
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Done for the Year With Torn ACL
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Devils Optimistic About Signing Luke Hughes
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Dylan Holloway

Good to Go for Start of Season
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Fully Healthy for Start of Season
Dennis Hildeby

Signs Three-Year Extension With Maple Leafs
Nick Lodolo

Scratched With Illness
Dalton Kincaid

Role Not Expected to Grow?
Quinshon Judkins

Zero Chance Quinshon Judkins Plays Against Bengals?
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Adolis Garcia Departs Monday with Quad Injury
Franz Wagner

Collects Double-Double in Blowout Win
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Achieves Rare Numbers at EuroBasket
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Dominates Against Sweden
Stefon Diggs

Expected to Suit Up in Week 1
Kristaps Porzingis

Finding Form at EuroBasket
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Suffers Minor Injury at EuroBasket
DJ Moore

Bears Experimenting with DJ Moore in Backfield
Rome Odunze

Could Move All Around the Offense
Carolina Panthers

Dave Canales Comfortable With Panthers' Young Receivers
Quinshon Judkins

Not Considering NCAA Return
Dallas Goedert

Healthy for Week 1
Marvin Mims Jr.

Returns to Practice Monday
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Carted Off Monday With Knee Injury
Jason Adam

Diagnosed With Ruptured Left Quadriceps Tendon
Victor Wembanyama

Looking "Quite Stellar"
Matthew Stafford

Expected to Start in Week 1
Najee Harris

Cleared for Contact, Could Play in Week 1
Denny Hamlin

Ends Eventful Day at Darlington in Seventh Place
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Almost Earns a Top-Five Finish at Darlington
John Hunter Nemechek

has His Best 2025 Performance at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

Has An Underwhelming Performance At Darlington
Josh Berry

Crashes Early and Suffers A Playoff Setback at Darlington
Giannis Antetokounmpo

"Staying in Milwaukee"
Thanasis Antetokounmpo

Agrees to a One-Year Contract with Milwaukee
Kyrie Irving

"Healing Up Great"
Dante Exum

Mavs Agree on a One-Year Deal
Jaylen Warren

Agrees to Two-Year Extension With Steelers
De'Von Achane

Practicing Monday, on Track to Play in Week 1
Quinshon Judkins

Could Report to Browns This Week
Chase Elliott

Under Playoff Pressure After 17th-Place Darlington Finish
Kyle Larson

Despite Hendrick Mediocrity, Kyle Larson Remains Pretty Safe in Playoffs
Alex Bowman

Opening-Lap Crash and Botched Pit Stop May Have Sunk Alex Bowman's Playoff Hopes
Erik Jones

Darlington Master Erik Jones Comes Up Short but Still Finishes Third
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Impresses at Southern 500
Daniel Suarez

is A DFS Risk for Darlington Lineups?
Noah Gragson

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Noah Gragson for Darlington?
Ty Dillon

is an Excellent Punt Option for Darlington DFS Lineups
Bogdan Bogdanović

Bogdan Bogdanovic to Miss the Rest of EuroBasket
Denny Hamlin

Picking Up Where He Left Off At Darlington
Kyle Larson

The Sky Is The Limit for Kyle Larson at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

a Strong DFS Play at Darlington This Weekend
Tyler Reddick

Shouldn't Be Overlooked at Darlington This Weekend
Alex Bowman

An Easy Place-Differential Play in DFS This Weekend
Ty Gibbs

Could Be Strong at Darlington This Weekend
Erik Jones

Has Best Darlington Qualifying Effort Since Last Win
Zane Smith

Hopeful For Another Solid Run At Darlington
Dallas Mavericks

Olivier-Maxence Prosper Waived by the Mavs
Lauri Markkanen

Dominant in Win Over Great Britain

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