ADP Fallers at Running Back

August 12, 2021

Antonio Losada takes a look at the ADP variation of three running backs from mid-July to mid-August and assesses their fantasy football value at RB in 2021.

We continue looking at ADP risers and fallers through the offseason as we already completed our first run back in June.

Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team.

ADPs are helpful to gauge the average value of players on draft day as viewed by the competition. Now, it's time to examine some running backs who have seen their draft stock plummet during the preseason thus far.

Running Backs - ADP Fallers

Gus Edwards - Baltimore Ravens

Gus the Bus tested positive for COVID in July, and he was forced out of camp due to health and safety measures. Edwards is not really trying to prove a thing, as he's more than tested already and everybody knows what he's capable of--yes, I'm one of those crazy folks banking on him above J.K. Dobbins, even more considering the ridiculous ADP of the latter these days compared to Gus'.

As recently as Aug. 6, Edwards welcomed the news of being back from the COVID-19 list and able to train in camp. Now, are we sure drafting Edwards is any sort of safe gamble? I mean, this guy is most probably going to enter the 2021 season without a vaccine inside of his body. That means he can always catch the virus for a (second?) time and miss playing time. What Edwards might win thanks to Mark Ingram II's vacated touches, he might lose thanks to another bout with COVID.

Neither of Dobbins nor Edwards looks draftable to me. Dobbins' ADP is bonkers nearing the second-round of 12-team leagues' drafts. The ROI is ground-level, virtually non-existent at all. Edwards has limited upside and might even lose time here and there through the season. Follow the trend and lower your expectations--and even fade Gus entirely.

Phillip Lindsay - Houston Texans

Lindsay's drop in ADP, while slightly, has been a natural one in that there has been no news of late to report regarding the Texans' backfield. Fantasy GMs are just realizing that 1) QB Deshaun Watson is probably cooked for the year even though Houston keeps fighting to field its quarterback and 2) that should make defenses key on a molly-clogged backfield and lower its upside.

If you've been living under a rock for the past few months, the Texans are deploying a three-headed backfield in 2021. To already-in-town David Johnson, they're adding both Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram. That should be the pecking order, but who the hell knows how this team will truly operate--remember, we're talking Houston here...

Even though all of Johnson/Lindsay/Ingram have ADPs below 114 and going all the way down to 306th overall, they still have negative ROI projections. That's insane for such lowly-priced assets. Oh, and Lindsay has the worst projected ROI of them all with an ADP of 156 and a projection to finish RB60 and overall 240th-best fantasy player overall. Trust the crowd and fade the former Bronco without much hesitation.

Leonard Fournette - Tampa Bay Buccanneers

Even though he got to appear in 13 contests last season on his way to the chip, Fournette could only rack up 132 PPR points which happened to be his second-lowest tally career-wise after he only reached 120 FP back in a banged-up 2018 season (just eight GP). The Bucs, in case you don't know, have Tom Brady playing quarterback for them these days and a freakish receiving corps, so it's not that they need to rush the rock that much...

In a similar development to what is going on with Lindsay's ADP, Fournette's has gone down just a draft-round in the past four weeks due to no particular reason/injury/etc. If everything stays the same in 2021, Fournette will have a rather small upside next season after posting a truly horrid 10.2 PPR points per game last year. Fantasy GMs realized that and are scared off drafting this guy high, that's the story.

That being said, Fournette is seen by PFF as a borderline RB2 on the year. That means that if his ADP keeps dropping, even if it's only some 10-to-15 spots down into the 110th realm, he could turn into one of the most valuable rushers come draft day in your league. Fournette's projection of 155+ PPR points shouldn't be seen as anything crazy. He already reached 130 last season missing three weeks, so even that putrid 10-FP-average over a full 17-game campaign would see him break that projection. Good value to target late with potential to become even more valuable if fantasy GMs keep sleeping on his upside.

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