This Unpopular Tactic in FFPC Best Ball Drafts Can Spike Win Rates

March 27, 2021

Zachary Krueger takes aim at FFPC best ball draft strategy with a seldom-deployed tactic that can boost your win rates by exploiting tight end premium scoring.

One of the best things about drafting in FFPC leagues is the tight end premium. For those unfamiliar, TE-premium scoring gives 1.5 PPR to TEs compared to the 1.0 PPR every other player on the roster receives per reception. While it may seem like a subtle edge, it's one that can work wonders when exploited properly.

If we take a quick look back at the 2020 season, we can see that in PPR scoring, only two TEs place in the top-50 among all running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. In TE premium scoring, six tight ends made up the top-50, with Travis Kelce moving from fifth in PPR scoring to second in FFPC scoring. Darren Waller ranked 11th among all RB/WR/TEs in PPR, but seventh in FFPC leagues.

With tight ends bringing serious value to FFPC leagues, I wanted to take a look at an underused draft strategy in best-ball leagues that could give a significant boost to your win rates in 2021.

A Premium Price for Premium Scoring

If you haven't participated in an FFPC classic best ball draft before, it's a 28-round draft that requires the following positions to be filled each week:

• 1 Quarterback
• 2 Running Backs
• 2 Wide Receivers
• 1 TE
• 2 FLEX (WR/RB/TE)
• 1 DEF
• 1K

For this article, I'll be using the FFPC Roster Construction Explorer tool over at RotoViz.com. Since the beginning of the draft season, I've made the RCE a staple in all my builds, as it provides win rates dating back to 2017 for teams based on how they were constructed. It's a powerful tool that I highly recommend you check out.

When looking at the roster construction explorer, we see the following win rates when starting our first two rounds with the following builds:

Of the builds mentioned above, a TE-RB start yields the highest win rate at 14.1%. While going TE-RB is a more than adequate start to a draft, the start is rather conventional. In the past, it has also suggested that to accomplish the said strategy, you either have to draft Kelce - which is easier said than done, or reach on another TE to make it work. Since 2017, only three TEs have carried a first-round ADP in FFPC best ball leagues - Rob Gronkowski in 2017 and Kelce in 2019 and 2020.

One strategy that is seldom employed in these leagues, but is more effective than most, is a TE-TE start.

Historically speaking, a four-TE build has provided the highest win rate at 8.9%. The second-highest win rate of 8.4% comes with a five TE build but requires some sacrifice at other key positions.

When we plug the TE-TE start into the RotoViz RCE, we see the following results:

Screenshot taken from RotoViz FFPC Roster Construction Explorer

Overall, a TE-TE start gives us a 10.1% win rate, which is tied for the third-highest win rate among the other builds listed above. If we deploy an optimal four-TE build, that win rate jumps to 11.7%.

Tackling Your Draft in 2021

Opting to go for a TE-TE start in 2021 has looked more viable than ever early on. As I mentioned earlier, over the last four seasons, we have seen only three TEs carry a first-round ADP heading into the season.

Through almost three months of drafting this year, we are seeing a much different development. When looking at player ADPs over the last two weeks, we see that three tight ends are going in the first round, with Kelce going as the TE1 at 3.1 overall.

Screenshot taken from RotoViz FFPC Exposure and ADP tool

When forced to pick near the back third of a draft, it's easy to see how a TE-TE start becomes a real option. While it's unlikely this start will involve Kelce and another elite tight end, starting a draft with George Kittle and Darren Waller is far from a bad build.

While Kittle missed six games last season with a foot fracture and another two with an MCL sprain, he had a 10.1% win rate at the end of Week 8 while averaging 18.6 PPR/game in TE premium leagues. Kittle played eight games in 2020 and finished the season with a receiving line of 48/634/2.

In regards to Waller, his 18.7% win rate from last season ranked second among all tight ends. He finished the season with 21.0 PPR/game in FFPC leagues and a receiving line of 107/1,195/9. From a PPR/game standpoint, Waller averaged 21.0 PPR/game, good for ninth-most among all position players. Kittle wasn't far behind, with an 18.6 PPR/game in FFPC leagues, good for the 12th highest scoring player in the format.

If you aren't a fan of the running backs falling in the latter portion of Round 1 or are confident in your abilities to win at wide receiver later in the draft, pivoting to a TE-TE build to start your draft could prove to be a viable option.

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