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Jon Mathisen evaluates second base fantasy baseball sleepers that could be undervalued draft targets for 2021. You can draft these 2B sleepers at a low cost.
As you probably know by now, second base is not a loaded position this year. It’s top-heavy with D.J. LeMahieu, Ozzie Albies, and Whit Merrifield but gets pretty dicey after that. I think it’s deeper than the casual observer may think, though. You can find batting average, OBP, stolen bases, and some pop down the list but every player comes with question marks.
Second base is typically a position I like to wait on in my drafts so, naturally, I’ve had to take a deeper look to mine for some value. There are four different levels to "sleepers," in my opinion. 1) Players that are known commodities but haven't realized their potential. 2) Players who haven't been given an opportunity to shine because of team situations (platoon, odd man out, etc.). 3) The boring, safe floor/low ceiling players "value" picks. 4) The post-hype players that the fantasy community has soured as they haven't lived up to expectations in the past.
I tried to find a nice mix of the players that fit into those categories. Some of them will be starter-worthy off the bat but others will be better off on your bench until we see how their playing time shakes out.
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Nick Solak, Texas Rangers
Solak fits into the "known commodity" category and is undervalued. He's currently the 15th-ranked second baseman on Rotoballer and has an NFC ADP of 173. Solak was a trendy pick heading into 2020 coming off a limited, but impressive, 2019 debut with the Rangers in which he slashed .293/.393/.491 with five home runs, 17 RBI, and two steals over 116 at-bats. He fell short of expectations in 2020 when he finished with a .268/.326/.344 batting line with two home runs, 23 RBI, and seven steals. This could be why he’s slipped in ADP heading into 2021 but I think the upside is still very high.
Solak is still just 26 years old and ranked in the 91st percentile in sprint speed last season after going 7-for-8 in stolen base attempts. Texas finished 4th in SB attempts in all of baseball last season and was number one in MLB back in 2019. He should hit near the top of the order and even though he didn’t show it last year, he's got some pop. He increased his Hard Hit rate to 40.2% in 2020 while increasing his launch angle (6.3 degrees in 2019 to 9.4 in 2020). He had a 2.4% HR/FB rate last season, which was unlucky and will likely regress to the mean. He could hit 15-20 long balls and if you pair that with a 15-20 stolen bases plus a solid batting average then you have yourself a starting second baseman. He’s got the talent to finish in the top-10 at the position and is one of my favorite mid to late-round players to target, at any position.
Ty France, Seattle Mariners
France is having one of the hottest springs in all of baseball. At the time of this writing, he’s slashing .357/.426/.786 with five home runs and 10 RBI over 42 Cactus League at-bats. Is that sustainable? Certainly not. But there are some things to take away from his torrid performance this spring.
He’s played at second, first, and third base and has hit in the top 1/3 of the lineup in over 75% of his plate appearances. He's primed to bat either second or third for the Mariners once the regular season begins. He’s hit at every level dating back to his college days at San Diego State when he hit .337/.432/.473 across three seasons. Over 535 minor-league games, he slashed .294/.389/.470 as well. After being acquired by Seattle during the regular season in 2020 he got his chance to see everyday at-bats and capitalized on the opportunity. He finished the year with a .305/.368/.468 batting line with four home runs and 23 RBI between the Padres (55 AB) and the Mariners (86 AB). His expected stats were on par as well with a .285 xBA, .357 xwOBA, and .477 xSLG.
Sure, the Mariners aren’t expected to compete this season but they have a young, plucky team and France will have the opportunity to drive in a lot of runs. He won’t provide much power but he could rack up the RBI and will give you a solid batting average and high on-base percentage. That’s worth a late-round dart throw to me. His current ADP is 307 in NFC.
Luis Arraez, Minnesota Twins
Arraez is basically free in drafts with his NFC ADP of 460. The main issue with Arraez is that there is no clear path to regular at-bats, as of now. The offseason addition of Andrelton Simmons, who will be the team’s primary shortstop, has caused a logjam in the infield. Jorge Polanco will shift to 2B while Josh Donaldson remains at third, which makes Arraez the odd man out. But he is such a phenomenal contact hitter with a 9% career walk rate and an 8.2% strikeout rate that the Twins will find ways to get him into their lineup. He’s getting a lot of at-bats out of the leadoff spot this spring while getting reps in left field, second base, and third base.
At worst, he will begin the year in a platoon and likely leadoff vs. righties. He has a ridiculous .354/.393/.479 slash line vs. RHP in his career (354 PA). All it would take is an injury somewhere in the infield and if we’re being honest, Josh Donaldson is not the model of health, to open up regular at-bats for Arraez. He may not play every day off the bat but it wouldn’t shock me if he logged 500 plate appearances by season's end. He isn’t going to get you a ton of power or stolen bases but he’ll help you in batting average, on-base percentage, and runs scored. His triple eligibility makes him a perfect bench stash so you can work him into your lineup at either 2B, 3B, or the OF.
Kolten Wong, Milwaukee Brewers
Wong is easily the best defender on this list as he's won a Gold Glove in each of the past two seasons. Players that play elite defense tend to have a longer leash if they begin to scuffle at the plate and that matters. Wong is leaving the pitcher-friendly confines of Busch Stadium and heads to the much more hitter-friendly American Family Field (formerly Miller Park) where he's slated to hit leadoff for a potent Brewers lineup.
The ceiling isn’t very high for Wong but a change of scenery should raise his floor. He's the 28th second baseman off the board with an NFC ADP of 286. While he's never been a power hitter (12 home runs was a career-high back in 2014) he should bop 10-15 home runs and nab 15-20 steals this year. He swiped a career-high 24 bases back in 2019 despite an average sprint speed. Milwaukee was in the top-10 in stolen base attempts in 2018-2019. You shouldn’t rely on him as a starter if you’re playing in a standard 12-team league but he’s a decent INF option or bench player.
Garrett Hampson, Colorado Rockies
Hampson is the quintessential post-hype sleeper to me. He's a player the fantasy community has been waiting on to break out over the last few seasons and his value appears to be at an all-time low. He’s a career .245/.305/.385 hitter with 13 home runs, 42 RBI, and 23 stolen bases over 506 career at-bats. Those numbers aren't great but they've been sporadically spread out over the last three seasons.
His K% has increased in three consecutive seasons while his walk rate has decreased over the same span. He put up a paltry 32.6% K rate in 2020 with a 7.1% BB rate, which were both career lows. So there isn't a lot to like about his batting profile but his greatest asset is his speed. He ranked in the 99th percentile in sprint speed last year, going 6-for-7 on stolen base attempts. He’s going to give you eligibility in three positions as well: 2B, SS, and OF.
The Brendan Rodgers injury has opened up playing time at second base. It looks like Ryan McMahon, another possible sleeper, will move over to 2B but Hampson should get some playing time there as well. It’s only spring training but Hampson has performed well during Cactus League play. He’s currently rocking a .310/.408/.347 with four stolen bases over 42 at-bats. He’s whiffed 10 times but also walked six, which a baby step in the right direction. His defensive versatility should get him semi-regular playing time but whether he gets consistent at-bats will be determined by his production at the plate. He's a bench stash until we see how he performs in the early going but there is 20/20 upside if it all comes together.
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