September 14, 2016

Andrew Bua examines the biggest contact rate risers and fallers after Week 24's action in the baseball world and provides fantasy baseball owners with advice on who to add.

RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in contact rate over the last seven days. The tool can be found here. Keep in mind, any statistic being viewed in such a small sample size will never be incredibly predictive on a granular level. But if any stat can be looked at over seven days, it's contact rate which stabilizes very quickly. What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, seeing the ball better, etc. If we know who is seeing and hitting the ball better as of late, even if it’s just a seven-day period, then we at least have a start in figuring out whether you should be buying or selling on that particular player.

This particular article will focus on three contact rate risers and fallers for Week 24, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat them for your lineups. Due to the nature of the often-refreshed contact rate tool, you may sometimes see players listed in this article who are no longer in the top % of risers/fallers (but was within the last few hours). This article will be posted on Wednesdays; if you have any questions or comments feel free to send me an email ([email protected]), tweet (@Andrew_Bua), or reach out on Reddit (/u/CitiStrikeouts)

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Contact Rate Risers

Curtis Granderson (OF, NYM): 79% Season Contact Rate, 90% L7 Contact Rate (+11%)

Now finishing up the third season on a four-year contract with the Mets, Curtis Granderson has yet again told fantasy owners the same story. Starts off slow, and eventually catches fire. This year, it’s taken much longer than usual to get it going, so is what we’re seeing from Grandy now sustainable for the rest of the season?

Granderson has never been a tremendously high contract hitter, to say the least, but in 2016 he’s actually made more contact than recent years. His 79.2% contact rate would be his second-highest since 2010, eclipsed only by last year’s 81.7% (career-best). Thus, his problem most of the year wasn’t necessarily contact issues. Granderon’s issue has been his highest ground ball rate (37.4%) and lowest fly ball rate (41.8%) since 2008. The past week, those figures have sat at 25% and 62.5% respectively, which has led to a .375/.500/1.125 slash rate, four homers, six runs scored and eight RBI. Grandy is best when putting the ball in the air; he’s seeing the ball a lot better and doing just that as of late. If you own him, get him in your lineup.

Chase Utley (2B, LAD): 82% Season Contact Rate, 91% L7 Contact Rate (+9%)

Chase Utley may be enjoying a better season than his disappointing 2015, but the 37-year old second basemen is still a shell of his former self (wouldn’t you be, at 37?). Recently, he’s picked up his contact rate a bit, giving fantasy owners a glimmer of hope for the rest of the year. Is it just a mirage, or is Utley about to start mashing?

Sorry fantasy owners, it doesn’t seem like a hot streak is in the cards for Utley. He may be making more contact as of late, but it’s weak contact that isn’t getting any results. His 13.3% hard hit ball rate over the last week is significantly lower than his 37.4% mark for the season, and his ground ball rate during this span is a whopping 60% (compared to 44.3% for the year). This has led to an odd .158/.158/.158 slash line over the past week (that’s a .316 OPS for those not doing the math), and better contact rate alone doesn’t mean this is going to get any better. In very deep leagues, keep Utley way down on your bench – but in the majority of leagues he can be safely dropped.

Carlos Gomez (OF, TEX): 68% Season Contact Rate, 79% L7 Contact Rate (+11%)

Carlos Gomez has been an enigma of a player the last two seasons, but as of late he seems to have stepped up his game. While his numbers for the season aren’t very impressive, he has found new life since his trade to the Texas Rangers. Are things about to get even better as his contact rate jumps?

Gomez’ slash line for the season: .213/.282/.349. Gomez’ slash line the last week: .263/.440/.632. That right there should tell you just about all you need to know, but we won’t stop there. His hard hit ball rate as of late is 41.7%, a significant increase over his 30.6% figure for the season. His home run to fly ball ratio for the season is 12.9%, but recently it has skyrocketed to 33.3%. Much like Curtis Granderson, Gomez has cut back on ground balls and has started launching it again. The pace may not be sustainable for Gomez for the rest of the reason, but it’s no fluke either. Ride the wave with Gomez, but be prepared to move him back to the bench if he falls off a cliff again.

Contact Rate Fallers

Corey Seager (SS, LAD): 79% Season Contact Rate, 66% L7 Contact Rate (-13%)

In his first full Major League season, Corey Seager has exceeded all expectations. It’s no surprise he’s a good player, but at only 22, it would have been unreasonable to expect this kind of season from the potential National League Rookie of the Year. Does a decrease in contact rate means he’s hitting a rookie wall as the fantasy playoffs are under way?

Fortunately, Seager’s contact drop recently doesn’t seem to be a reason for concern. Over the last week, Seager is hitting .435/.435/.783 to go along with two home runs, six runs scored and six RBI. He always hits the ball very hard as it is (40.7% hard hit ball rate for the season), but during his drop in contact he’s actually hitting it hard when he does find it (58.8%). Finally, his line drive rate the past week is an insane 58.8%, compared to 25.3% for the year. Not only is Seager not going cold, he might actually be heating up even more. Don’t even think about removing the rookie from your lineup.

Wilson Ramos (C, WAS): 82% Season Contact Rate, 63% L7 Contact Rate (-19%)

Wilson Ramos has had a stellar fantasy season, surprisingly likely to finish in the top three at a position that is beyond barren. Unfortunately, Ramos’ contact rate has fallen off a cliff the last week. Is the long grind of the season finally wearing on the catcher?

As we all know, catcher is a tough position to hold strong at all year long. That’s not to say Ramos is entitled to an excuse, but it’s just a fact of the game. Since Ramos’ drop in contact, he’s hitting only .111/.158/.167 with one RBI. His strikeout rate the past week is an ungodly 42.1% (compared to 14.7% for the season). When he does make contact, it’s not very good either: his line drive rate is 10% over the last seven days compared to 20.4% for the year. Given the lack of fantasy production at the catcher spot, chances are you won’t be able to replace Ramos with anyone who can seriously add value. As such, despite the slump, unless there is a clear-cut better option you might be better off riding it out with Ramos and hoping it clicks again soon.

Adrian Gonzalez (1B, LAD): 79% Season Contact Rate, 68% L7 Contact Rate (-11%)

Adrian Gonzalez has been the definition of the quiet fantasy rock over the course of his career. No matter what, you could pencil the first basemen in for at least a high .270’s batting average, at least 22 home runs and 90 + RBI. However, the last week has season his contact rate take a big hit. Is the always-reliable Gonzalez going to falter when fantasy owners need him most?

His stats don’t necessarily back this up, but he looks to be just fine. Over the past week, he’s hitting only .250/.250/.450. Outside of the slugging percentage, that’s very un-Gonzalez-esque. A bit of a deeper look should quell your concern, thankfully. Despite the contact rate drop, Gonzalez is hitting line drives at a rate of 38.5%, significantly higher than his 26.9% mark for the year. He’s also making a ton of hard contact (64.3%) while making almost no soft contact (7.1%). The underlying numbers here seem to indicate that Gonzalez should pick it up stats-wise, despite not making as much contact. If you’re a Gonzalez owner, don’t panic, and keep the slugger in your lineup.

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