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Mike's Week 7 college football betting picks against the spread for Saturday, October 11, 2025. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis & ATS picks from RotoBaller.
I finished at 28-22 last week and started 2-0 this week. I'm feeling good about this week. We have a big slate of Saturday games, and I see a lot of spots that I really like. It's going to be a really good or a really bad week!
Every game today is an FBS vs. FBS game. Finally! We don't have FCS lines polluting our feed. I don't mess with those anyway. All 47 games are FBS vs. FBS tilts, and we've got some exciting ones!
If you'd like me to advise on over/under or prop bets, you can reach out on X or in the RotoBaller Discord, and I'll be happy to answer. Let's get to the picks we really care about and make some money!
CFB Betting Picks for Week 7 - (10/11/25)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly, as the case may be.
The sheet is still under construction since I am having issues finding the articles from 2019 and 2020. If any of you know anything about computers and can help find defunct webpages, I would love to hear from you!
(1) Ohio State (-14.5) at (17) Illinois
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
How ridiculous are these super-mega-big-ass-conferences? This series has been played since 1902, including yearly from 1914-2002, but these teams haven't played for the Illibuck since 2017. Another rivalry ruined.
#Illini 2007 upset over No. 1 Ohio State.
Here's a 2-minute video from our station archive
Illibuck trophy and end of game celebration with J Leman, Juice Williams and Ron Zook.
Man, Juice would run out a clock
This win led Illinois to the 2008 Rose Bowl vs. USC. Enjoy! pic.twitter.com/LVJrNnuFXC
— Carson Gourdie (@GourdieReport) October 10, 2025
I don't like that half, especially on the road. However, Ohio State can expose Illinois in every way that Indiana did. And they have a quarterback who rarely makes mistakes.
Pick: Ohio State -14.5
(8) Alabama (-2.5) at (14) Missouri
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Reasons to worry about Mizzou
1st in 3rd down conversion (62%)
3rd in first down offense
Scored on 96% of RZ trips
3rd in rushing offense (292 YPG)
7th in scoring offense
Beau Pribula 3rd in comp. % at 76%
Ahmad Hardy is 2nd in TDs and 1st in rushing yards
HUGE TEST
— Bear Bryant’s Burner (@TheBearsBurner) October 8, 2025
I was hoping to have a few more points to play with, but if I truly believe that Missouri is going to win, it shouldn't matter. This Missouri run offense is elite, and Alabama's troubles against the run are well known.
What's not talked about is that Ty Simpson is the best quarterback Missouri has faced. Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams are easily the best receivers. Is the Missouri secondary up to the task?
I feel as if there is so much noise about Missouri winning that Alabama is going to go in there and leave no doubt. This is one of the situations where an upset pick becomes so trendy that the favored team gets pissed off and plays with a fire that wasn't previously there.
Pick: Alabama -2.5
Pittsburgh at (25) Florida State (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is up two points with the confirmation that freshman Mason Heintschel will make the start in Tallahassee. On one hand, the turnover total should be less without Eli Holstein in there. On the other hand, the crowd might rattle Heintschel to the point where he can barely function.
Pitt isn't going to win outright, but that half bothers me a little. Desmond Reid is also expected to be back for Pitt. I kind of think this stays within 10 points.
Pick: Pittsburgh +10.5
UCLA at Michigan State (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There is no juice on the 7.5 number on a couple of books, so I expect this line to close without that hook. It may slip to under 7 completely if money keeps coming in on the Bruins.
I know this is a road game, but Tim Skipper elevating Jerry Neuheisel to the play caller on offense changed the whole outlook of this team. I know it won't happen, but I want UCLA to knock that interim tag off of Skipper. He got this discombobulated team to play as a unit in under a month.
Pick: UCLA +7.5
Stanford at SMU (-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The SMU defense has been a mess, but this is a 9 a.m. Pacific kickoff, and the Stanford offense is still offensive to people who love offense.
Pick: SMU -18.5
Central Florida at Cincinnati (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Bearcats should be ranked, and UCF was exposed a bit by Kansas. The Bearcats continue to peel away the layers.
Pick: Cincinnati -10.5
Houston (-14.5) at Oklahoma State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Conner Weigman is questionable for this game, but Zion Chriss played well last year in relief. The offense would change with Chriss in there, but we haven't seen anything from the Oklahoma State defense that suggests they could stop him either.
Hauss Hejny and Zane Flores are both out, so we will likely see Sam Jackson V taking snaps for the Cowboys for the first time since he started at Cal at the beginning of the 2023 season.
Pick: Houston -14.5
Louisiana at James Madison (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Georgia Southern was able to slow down the Dukes, and there is 1.5 points of play in this line. That makes me think this should be right at 17 points. I hate the hook, but the Cajuns are a mess.
Pick: James Madison -17.5
Charlotte at Army (-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There's no juice on the 18.5 in a few spots, and I get it. Army isn't built to cover lines like this. On the other hand, Charlotte isn't built for FBS football...
Pick: Army -18.5
Miami (OH) (-11.5) at Akron
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Redhawks are a slow and deliberate offense. Akron shocked Central Michigan at home last week. I know that Miami just covered this line in DeKalb, but I think that NIU might be worse than we think. This is too many.
Pick: Akron +11.5
Toledo (-10.5) at Bowling Green
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It's hard to trust this Toledo team, and the Falcons only lost to Cincinnati by 14. They also beat Liberty.
Pick: Bowling Green +10.5
Washington State at (4) Mississippi (-31.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
North Texas covered this against Wazzu. Ole Miss shouldn't have trouble doing the same.
Pick: Mississippi -31.5
Northern Illinois (-2.5) at Eastern Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line says it all. NIU hasn't scored 20 points in a game all season. Only Central Michigan held the Eagles under 20.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +2.5
Massachusetts at Kent State (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
UMass has lost 16 straight games vs FBS opponents (last win in Oct 2023). Kent State has lost 26 straight to FBS opponents (last win in Nov 2022).
This Saturday a stoppable force meets a movable object when these two MAC teams face off. Who do you think wins? pic.twitter.com/h0dNmVGLqH
— College Football Zone (@CollegeFBonX) October 8, 2025
I have to watch this game. There is no way that I'll be able to look away, no matter how bad it gets. This is going to be football at its worst, and I'm still going to enjoy it more than any NFL game.
Kent is bad, but UMass has scored a combined 16 points in the last three games. The Minutemen are the worst team that I have watched this year, and it's not really close.
The Kent State/UMass advanced stats chart is an absolute thing of beauty. The perfect football game. Neither has beaten an FBS opponent in 24 months.
The game of the weekend, possibly the century. pic.twitter.com/c7ssGjEhYQ
— Nathan Carroll (@Nathan_26_) October 9, 2025
Pick: Kent State -2.5
(7) Indiana at (3) Oregon (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Everyone knows the last Big Ten team to win at Oregon, right?
It's Indiana #iufb
The Gerry DiNardo led '04 Hoosiers beat #24 Oregon 30-24. Here's a Lance Bennett TD return from the game pic.twitter.com/q9AG8krPx4
— Hoosier Review (@Hoosier_Review) September 29, 2025
Everyone is talking about Alabama's run defense and John Mateer's thumb. Few are talking about what could be the best game of the weekend. I believe that, and I know Curt Cignetti is going to have the team ready.
This line makes it easy to pick because I feel certain this stays a one-score game. I don't even have to pick the winner!
Pick: Indiana +7.5
(6) Oklahoma (-1.5) vs. Texas at Dallas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Oklahoma's defensive ranks this year:@PFSNcollege DEF Impact: 96.8 (1st)
Yards per play: 3.7 (2nd)
Points per drive: 0.73 (3rd)
Def. rush success rate: 70.5% (10th)
Def. pass success rate: 76.2% (1st)
Pressure % w/out blitzing: 47.4% (1st) pic.twitter.com/qvHa4v5F5w— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) September 28, 2025
Everyone is talking about the Texas defense, but the Oklahoma defense has been even better. Ohio State and Florida are better offenses than Michigan and Auburn, but not by that large a margin.
Oklahoma ranks 1st in sack rate (15%) and 3rd in pressure rate (53%) among FBS teams this season.
When pressured, Arch Manning averages 14.7 air yards per attempt — 2nd highest in the FBS — but completes just 46% of those passes with a 33 Total QBR. pic.twitter.com/5M95ZVD28S
— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) October 9, 2025
John Mateer is back, which is not surprising to anyone. There is no way that Oklahoma would have let him have surgery if he were going to miss this game. He didn't look that affected against Auburn.
Texas hasn't won back-to-back Red River Shootouts since 2008-09. It's not happening this year either. BOOMER!
Pick: Oklahoma -1.5
Virginia Tech at (13) Georgia Tech (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's Techmo Bowl, but maybe not the Tecmo Bowl that you're used to. Georgia Tech has lived dangerously for a month now. I have a hard time believing this is a blowout.
Pick: Virginia Tech +14.5
North Carolina State at (16) Notre Dame (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I know that the Notre Dame offense is good and keeps getting better, but there is a lot of talent on this North Carolina State team.
Pick: North Carolina State +23.5
(22) Iowa State (-2.5) at Colorado
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Really? Colorado doesn't have the passing game to take the top off this defense the way that Cincinnati did.
Pick: Iowa State -2.5
Northwestern at Penn State (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Who had 3-2 Northwestern vs 3-2 Penn State before the season started? https://t.co/5JdFMgvRfd pic.twitter.com/4y3dXWjn7u
— College Football Zone (@CollegeFBonX) October 6, 2025
Nope. This is way too many with the way the Penn State offense is playing.
Pick: Northwestern +21.5
Nebraska (-6.5) at Maryland
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Nebraska defense really got after Michigan State last week. They will get after Malik Washington as well. This is Nebraska's first real road game of the season. It's the middle of October! We haven't seen how they will react to the road crowd.
Maryland blew a 20-point lead to Washington last week. Will that affect them? I don't know, I tend to think this stays closer. Maryland only lost by four last week.
Pick: Maryland +6.5
Wake Forest (-2.5) at Oregon State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Only 2.5 points? I know that good teams have struggled in Corvallis, but Wake has looked really good the last couple of games.
Pick: Wake Forest -2.5
TCU (-1.5) at Kansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This game is going to be a lot of fun. The return of Kevorian Barnes is going to be big for TCU. If Dylan Edwards isn't at 100%, or heaven forbid, can't go, the Wildcats are sunk.
Pick: TCU -1.5
Air Force at UNLV (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Air Force has been torched again and again by lesser passing offenses than UNLV. Jaden Bradley is going to have a monster game!
Pick: UNLV -6.5
Appalachian State (-2.5) at Georgia State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Can App State take the show on the road? I think so, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Pick: Appalachian State -2.5
Old Dominion (-14.5) at Marshall
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Syracuse transfer Carlos Del Rio-Wilson has been outstanding as the starter for Marshall. That said, the Marshall defense is going to have issues with Colton Joseph. I don't like the hook, so I'll just lower the bet.
Pick: Old Dominion -14.5
Ball State at Western Michigan (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ball State just took out Ohio, but Western Michigan took out MAC heavyweight Toledo and only lost to North Texas by three.
Pick: Western Michigan -8.5
Navy (-10.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I've seen this at -9.5, and am tempted to grab it there. Air Force hanging around with Navy had more to do with the rivalry than anything.
Pick: Navy -10.5
Arkansas at (13) Tennessee (-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Only about half of the Tennessee team is the same as the one that lost to Arkansas at Fayetteville last year. This is going to be personal for them.
Pick: Tennessee -12.5
UAB at Florida Atlantic (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels low considering how the FAU offense looked against Rice last week. This offense is coming around.
Pick: Florida Atlantic -4.5
Florida at (5) Texas A&M (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Do we think that Florida is good for beating Texas last week? This part of the we does not. The Florida defense rattled Arch Manning. Marcel Reed is much more polished this year than last year, and those A&M receivers are legit.
Pick: Texas A&M -7.5
Iowa (-3.5) at Wisconsin
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ugh...bet the under, even though it's the lowest over/under of the season so far (35.5).
Pick: Iowa -3.5
San Jose State (-2.5) at Wyoming
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I like the San Jose State offense, but that Wyoming defense can be rough. Walker Eget has thrown for 807 yards in the past two games, and Danny Scudero is the best receiver that no one pays attention to.
Pick: San Jose State -2.5
Louisiana-Monroe (-2.5) at Coastal Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Both teams got smashed last week. I have zero interest in betting on this game. I'll still watch it though.
Pick: Coastal Carolina +2.5
Kansas at (9) Texas Tech (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I like Jalon Daniels, but this Kansas defense makes life far more difficult than it needs to be. The Texas Tech line is going to be chasing Daniels around all game.
Pick: Texas Tech -14.5
(10) Georgia (-3.5) at Auburn
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Since 2013 Auburn is 31-5 at Jordan Hare Stadium in night games
Auburn also leads UGA 4-3-1 in JHS night games since 1984
Home. Field. Advantage. pic.twitter.com/8v4xdvZnB5
— Top Tier Auburn (@TopTierAuburn) October 8, 2025
The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry has been very one-sided lately. Auburn hasn't beaten Georgia since 2017. The Auburn defense is going to make things difficult for Georgia, but that offensive line is horrendous. At this rate, I'll be shocked if Jackson Arnold makes it through the season.
Pick: Georgia -3.5
(15) Michigan at USC (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Michigan's offense is much better than the wreck we saw last year. Justice Haynes has at least 100 rushing yards and at least one touchdown in every game. USC isn't going to stop that.
Pick: Michigan +2.5
Purdue at Minnesota (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is down three points. I'm a little surprised by that. The Purdue offense can score with a lot of teams, but the Minnesota defense has looked pretty good. I don't like the hook, but I like Purdue less.
Pick: Minnesota -7.5
Clemson (-13.5) at Boston College
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Clemson offense lit up North Carolina. Boston College got lit up by a true freshman last week. There is far more talent on this Clemson team.
Pick: Clemson -13.5
Rice at UTSA (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
These teams are battling for which was can let me down worse. All right, UTSA. Let's do this one more time.
Pick: UTSA -9.5
South Carolina at (11) LSU (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Death Valley at night is no joke, but I am worried about Garrett Nussmeier. Something looks off in his follow-through. Maybe he healed up during the off week. If he did, this might be too low.
I'm not going to make that leap until we have some sort of proof. Has he been hurt all season? The LSU offense has been a mess all season.
Pick: South Carolina +9.5
(18) BYU (-1.5) at Arizona
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is falling, and I'm not sure why. I thought it was fair at -3. This is a game that Arizona can win, but those waiting for Bear Bachmeier to fall on his face may be waiting a while.
He beat East Carolina. You know, the same ECU team that pushed Tulane all the way to the brink.
Pick: BYU -1.5
Troy at Texas State (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is falling, likely because the Bobcats were stunned in Jonesboro last week. It's easy to forget that this Troy team led Clemson 16-0 at one point at Clemson.
Tucker Kilcrease has improved in each of the last two weeks. Texas State is tough at home, but I'm telling you, that hook is nothing but trouble.
Pick: Troy +7.5
New Mexico at Boise State (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This feels a little high, but I don't trust this one either.
Pick: Boise State -16.5
(21) Arizona State at Utah (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line has shot up with the news that Jeff Sims is likely going to start in place of Sam Leavitt. Sims has starting experience at Georgia Tech and Nebraska with little to no success. Now he has to face the Utah defense? Yeah, the Utes get Big 12 home win number one here.
Pick: Utah -7.5
San Diego State (-7.5) at Nevada
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Carter Jones looked good in the second half last week, but the Nevada defense has no chance of stopping this offense.
Pick: San Diego State -7.5
Utah State (-1.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wow, this is going to be a tough one. Bryson Barnes is the best player on the field, so I'll go that way. There's no way I would bet on this.
Pick: Utah State -1.5
I maxed out five bets, which is my high for the year. I also had eight minimum bets, so I made up for it by chickening out more than usual. The eight four-point bets are about average for the year. I have 17 two-point bets and 18 three-point bets, so I'm still heavy in the middle.
Good luck out there! This is a big weekend! It's time for redemption!
