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Matt's bold predictions for the 2025 fantasy football season. His top calls, player outlooks, and analysis for fantasy football leagues, featuring De'Von Achane and more.
Sometimes, bold predictions are seen as "unrealistic predictions pulled out of one's backside," but if everything were predictable, where would the fun be in that?
Fantasy football managers should have learned over the years to expect the unexpected. Year in and year out, one player exceeds expectations while another falls short of lofty goals. It's a tale as old as time itself.
The 2025 fantasy football season is no exception. Here are nine bold predictions, also known as "hot takes," that, when the smoke clears, could very well come to fruition.
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De'Von Achane Finishes as the Overall RB1
This fantasy outcome depends on De'Von Achane staying healthy, Tua Tagovailoa staying healthy, and Tyreek Hill keeping his mouth shut when Achane is on the field on third down.
Last season, Saquon Barkley led all running backs with 355.3 fantasy points and 22.2 fantasy points per game. However, in 11 contests in which Tagovailoa was healthy, Achane would average 22.6 fantasy points per contest thanks to being targeted on 29% of his routes.
Hill only wants to get Achane off the field so he can get more targets, especially considering there are 111 now vacated with Jonnu Smith's departure this offseason. Breaking that down a little further, the volume was relatively equal in the 11 contests in which Tagovailoa suited up.
Tagovaila's target distribution in his 11 games last season.
Hill- 85 tgt, 7.7 tgt/g, 20.6 tgt%, 694 rec yards.
Smith 75 tgt, 6.8 tgt/g, 18.2 tgt%, 626 rec yards.
Achane 72 tgt, 6.5 tgt/g, 17.4 tgt%, 530 rec yards.
Waddle 53 tgt, 5.3 tgt/g, 14.0 tgt%, 581 rec yards.
— Matt Donnelly (@MattDonnellyFF) August 2, 2025
With a healthy Tagovailoa for 15 or more games, along with adding some of Smith's work in the passing game and a 1,000-yard rushing season (907 rushing yards in 2024), Achane could very well dethrone Barkley as fantasy's top back.
D'Andre Swift Leads Running Backs in Receptions
Don't laugh now; since 2021, the only running backs with more receptions than D'Andre Swift's 191 are Austin Ekeler (263), Alvin Kamara (247), Christian McCaffrey (204), and Aaron Jones (192). Swift has averaged nearly 48 receptions per season, and considering he averaged 5.5 targets per game when he last played for Ben Johnson, this take is plausible.
Last season, Achane led all backs with 78 receptions. If Swift were to meet and exceed that mark, he would need to catch 86% of his targets, assuming he sees a similar target share as he had under Johnson. Again, a plausible take considering the duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery were targeted on 101 occasions a season ago.
Remember that D’Andre Swift averaged FIVE targets per game under Ben Johnson in 2022.
Only two RBs topped that number last season. pic.twitter.com/5BMxlD7cUc
— Brian Drake (@DrakeFantasy) June 16, 2025
When Swift achieves this, not only does it cement him as one of the premier pass-catching backs in the NFL, but it will also lead to a top fantasy performance, surpassing his current ADP of RB21.
Doing the quick match, an 80-reception season resulting in 350 yards would equate to 115 fantasy points. Add in a 1,000-yard season and six touchdowns, and suddenly you have 251 fantasy points, which would have been enough last season to finish as the RB12.
Justin Fields and Garrett Wilson: Top-5 Pairing
Since entering the league in 2022, only CeeDee Lamb and Davante Adams have been targeted more frequently than Garrett Wilson. In 51 career regular-season contests, Wilson has seen 469 balls thrown in his direction, resulting in 279 receptions, 3,249 receiving yards, and 14 touchdowns.
Over that period, Wilson has seen a revolving door at the quarterback position, one that has seen Aaron Rodgers, Tyrod Taylor, Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, Tim Boyle, Joe Flacco, Mike White, and even Chris Streveler rotate under center.
Through it all, Wilson has become one of just four players to start their careers with three consecutive seasons with 80 or more receptions and 1,000-plus receiving yards. He joins a pair of fantasy football legends in Michael Thomas and Odell Beckham Jr., as well as current fantasy superstar Justin Jefferson, as the only receivers to accomplish the feat.
Once again, Wilson will get his. With a receiver room featuring Josh Reynolds, Tyler Johnson, Allen Lazard, Arian Smith, and Malachi Corley, no real viable threats threaten Wilson's target share. In 2023, Wilson had 168 targets. In 2024, Ja'Marr Chase led the NFL with 175. With Justin Fields calling the shots in New York, Wilson surpasses 180 this season.
Speaking of Fields, back in 2022, he would finish as the QB5 in fantasy, averaging 20.5 fantasy points per game. Fields would throw for 2,242 yards in that season, run for 1,143, and combine for 25 touchdowns. DJ Moore came to town the following season and hauled in 96 of 136 targets for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns, proving that Fields can support a top-10 fantasy asset.
The Justin Fields/Garrett Wilson stack may just be my fav stack of the offseason
Fields has an awesome ceiling with his rushing upside
Wilson has minimal competition for targets
And they already have that connection from college
It could be SPECIAL 🔥pic.twitter.com/LbhEYSyday
— Matt FF Dynasty 🏈 (@MattFFDynasty) June 18, 2025
Fast forward to 2025, and we've seen Fields mature as a passer. In Fields' six games as a starter last season, he averaged 19.1 fantasy points per game and was the QB6 before giving way to Russell Wilson despite the Steelers' 4-2 record.
Nico Collins Outscores Justin Jefferson
Nico Collins outscoring Justin Jefferson is not as far-fetched as it would seem. Don't let Jefferson's 309 fantasy points or Collins' 195 fantasy points distract you from this very real outcome in 2025.
While the final season tally appears one-sided, the two receivers were much more evenly matched on a per-game basis. While Jefferson's health allowed him to rack up the fantasy production, Collins missed five contests due to injury.
Looking at it from a points per game standpoint, Jefferson's 19.3 fantasy points per game, while impressive, are only slightly better than the 17.8 that Collins produced.
This prediction is not meant to diminish Jefferson in any way but to show how underrated Collins has been and continues to be. Collins is more than a one-hit wonder for fantasy managers.
In 2023, Collins finished as the WR18, averaging 16.1 fantasy points per game. If you add his Week 18 performance against the Colts, the one where he had 195 receiving yards on nine receptions, Collins jumps to the WR7 even after missing two games.
I’ve been doing some @RecepPerception reading as I wait for the HOF game to kick off
Nico Collins is on another level
- 93rd percentile vs man
- 81st percentile vs zone
- 96th percentile vs pressHe just keeps getting better pic.twitter.com/zz6IDqLW0x
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 1, 2025
If Collins can remain healthy, he faces no competition for targets in Houston after Stefon Diggs' departure and Tank Dell's injury. Houston did sign Christian Kirk and drafted a pair of Iowa State products, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, but none pose the threat for targets that Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson do in Minnesota.
Calvin Ridley Poised to Finish Inside Top-12 Fantasy Receivers
In just Cavin Ridley's two seasons in Tennessee, he has produced 2,033 receiving yards (18th), an average of 14.3 yards per reception, on 140 receptions. While that is impressive, one can't help but wonder what could have been, considering he has been the 12th-most-targeted pass-catcher (256) dating back to the start of that 2023 campaign.
Tennessee is expecting to be much improved at the quarterback position, which has to excite Ridley, considering he saw a catchable ball on just 67.5% of the 117 targets last season.
Calvin Ridley ranked 6th in targets of 20+ yards last season. Below are all of those targets.
Cam Ward had a BTT% of 34.7%, 12 touchdowns and 0 interceptions on throws of 20+ yards last season. pic.twitter.com/UotGXkxODx
— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) July 17, 2025
While Ridley's 1,017 receiving yards were the 21st most in the league, the 44.4% air yards share was the fourth most, and the 1,838 total air yards led all receivers. For a receiver who averaged 11.8 fantasy points per game and finished as the WR38, there is plenty of meat left on the bone here.
Drake Maye is a Top-5 Fantasy Quarterback
From Week 6 to Week 16 last season, Drake Maye was fantasy football's 12th leading scorer at the quarterback position, averaging 17.5 fantasy points per game.
Much of that success can be attributed to the 309 rushing yards on 35 rushing attempts. Of those 309 rushing yards, Maye had an explosive run rate of 22.9% with 56.3% of that yardage coming off runs greater than 15 yards. Considering the play of the offensive line, it was out of necessity, but it adds intrigue to Maye's overall game and raises the floor for his fantasy production.
Drake Maye's rushing ability remains under-appreciated
+ 2nd in scramble rate (10.79%)
+ 6th in YPG (32.4)
+ 1st in YPC (7.80)
+ 1st in explosive rush (16.7%)
(@FantasyPtsData)With vast roster improvements in NE, Maye's fantasy ceiling is a top 5-7 QB imo. He's currently QB15.
— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) June 24, 2025
Entering Year 2, New England made some moves to bolster both the offensive line and the receivers room. In the trenches, the Patriots added Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury in free agency and LSU's Will Campbell with the fourth overall selection in April's draft to lock down Maye's blindside.
In the passing game, New England added Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins in free agency while selecting Washington State's Kyle Williams in the draft. Before having his season cut short in Houston, Diggs had produced six consecutive seasons of 1,000-plus receiving yards and 100 or more receptions in five of those six seasons. Meanwhile, Williams was in college, making Travis Hunter look like a fool and finishing his career with a 70-reception, 1,198-yard senior season.
If a quarterback is going to be elite, he needs solid offensive line play; check. He needs to make plays with his legs; check. Needs dependable options in the passing game; check. He also needs a playmaker out of the backfield, and the Patriots have one of those in TreVeyon Henderson, who averaged 7.6 yards per touch during his final season at Ohio State. Henderson is an explosive playmaker who also doubles as the Patriots' most reliable back in pass protection, increasing the probability of a big play on every snap.
Jordan Mason Becomes Vikings Lead Back, Finishes in Top 20
Father Time remains undefeated and eventually comes for us all. For Aaron Jones Sr., that time may be now. While Jones is coming off an impressive 255-carry, 1,138-yard rushing season, he is also entering his ninth NFL season, turns 31 in December, and has racked up more than 1,800 touches during his career. Jones has so far avoided the steep drop-off that often occurs in backs around the time they reach 29 years of age.
When Jones hits that wall, Minnesota has already put a contingency plan in place in the form of Jordan Mason, who has immense upside if afforded an opportunity. Look at the beginning of last season when Mason was the lead back for the 49ers for the first four weeks.
In those four weeks, Mason produced three 100-yard rushing performances and totaled 447 rushing yards, averaging 4.9 yards per attempt. Mason's 667 rushing yards before his Week 8 injury were second in the NFL. Mason also averaged 106 rushing yards when playing over 50% of the snaps.
Early indications from Vikings camp are that a split backfield is to be expected, with both backs earning a similar workload. The most significant difference could come inside the 5-yard line, where Jones had -2 yards on 13 attempts. Jones' -0.70 was the worst EPA/rush inside the five since 2012.
Aaron Jones was the worst RB in the NFL inside the 5
13 rushes
-2 total yards (yes, negative 2 yards on 13 att)
1 fumble lost
-0.70 EPA/rushworst EPA for a RB inside the 5 since 2012 (BenJarvus Green-Ellis)
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) July 7, 2025
Mason holds plenty of value even while splitting the backfield with Jones, but should Jones finally succumb, which, after 306 touches last season, is a high probability, there is a clear path for Mason to be a top-20 fantasy option at the running back position.
David Njoku Outperforms Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce
This really shouldn't be a hot take. Maybe you have to add in that David Njoku will outproduce George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, and Travis Kelce to push it into "hot take" territory.
The truth is Njoku was the TE10 in fantasy scoring, while his 13.5 fantasy points per game was the fourth-best mark, and he has finished inside the top five in that metric in back-to-back seasons, besting both Kelce and LaPorta in 2024.
While we don't know who will be under center for the Browns yet, early projections had Joe Flacco ahead of Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel, and Shedeur Sanders.
In that case, it is essential to note that Njoku received a 21.7% target share in games in which Flacco played back in 2023, accounting for 24.0% of the team's total receiving market share and averaging 18.2 fantasy points per game (TE2), including four consecutive top-4 weekly fantasy finishes over that period.
We are getting closer and closer to Joe Flacco-David Njoku the sequel and I am here for it.
In 2023, Njoku had 4 straight top-4 weekly TE finishes with at least 16.4 points scored to close out the fantasy regular season.
Njoku is an ADP smash pick.
— Theo Gremminger (@TheOGfantasy) June 24, 2025
Only four tight ends last season finished among the top 12 at the position at a greater rate than Njoku (six of 10 contests): George Kittle, Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, and Mark Andrews, who all finished TE12 or better 64% of the time.
Anthony Richardson Sr. Channels His Inner Tim Tebow
For the last prediction, let's dig a little deeper. The year was 2011, and Tebowmania was taking the nation by storm. Despite not looking like an NFL quarterback, Tim Tebow managed to throw for 1,729 yards, rush for 660 yards, and combine for 18 touchdowns.
While Tebow's 2011 season would stack up well against what quarterbacks are doing today, Tebow was fantasy relevant, and Anthony Richardson Sr. can be once again as well.
Fantasy managers have made a habit of giving up talent too soon. The list continues: Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Sam Darnold, Jordan Love, Geno Smith, and history could potentially repeat itself with the 23-year-old Richardson.
Richardson has used this offseason to refine his mechanics.
"Everything's cleaner right now. He's playing at a high level. He's making good decisions with the football, taking the completions when needed, so it's been really good to see," Colts HC Shane Steichen said, via Colts.com.
The secret to Richardson's rebirth lies in the hands of rookie tight end Tyler Warren, who added 56.2% of his receiving yards last season at Penn State after the catch. Early in training camp, Richardson is looking the part of an NFL-caliber quarterback, building a solid rapport with Warren, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Jonathan Taylor.
Tyler Warren is a better YAC-threat than Colston Loveland (career 6.6 vs 5.4 YAC/reception).
He’s a better contested-catcher (career 63.6% vs 40% success-rate).
& he had as many yards in 1 season (1,451) as Loveland had his entire career (1,461).
Warren is just better. pic.twitter.com/PwjCNGfmOs
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFFWrld) August 2, 2025
With viable playmakers on offense and one of the top offensive lines in front of him, Richardson is poised to rebound in 2025. With a bit of luck and that Konami Code ability, there may be hope for him.
Update - Richardson will open the season as the No. 2 QB in Indianapolis. Daniel Jones will get the starting nod in Week 1.
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