Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball First Base Dynasty Rankings, Prospect Rankings, Buys, and Sells (2025)

Eric Cross provides his 2025 fantasy baseball prospect and dynasty rankings for the first base position and discusses 1B to buy or sell for the second half.

After going over the always-changing catcher landscape to start this mid-season dynasty and prospect rankings series, we shift over to the first base position, which has also seen a bit of a shake-up this season.

The older veterans have either been hurt or simply not as stellar as in years past. We've also had several breakouts at this position this season, and two notable top prospects have debuted. Some of those breakouts have sustained their early-season surge, while others have fallen off. This has all made for an interesting shakeup in the rankings at this position, especially near the top.

Below you'll find my current Top 20 dynasty rankings and Top 15 prospect rankings for the first base position, along with thoughts on several notable players, their values moving forward, and whether to buy, sell, or hold right now.

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First Base Dynasty Rankings

Tier 1: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Tier 2: Pete Alonso, Nick Kurtz, Bryce Harper, Matt Olson

Tier 3: Josh Naylor, Freddie Freeman, Jonathan Aranda

Tier 4: Vinnie Pasquantino, Jac Caglianone, Samuel Basallo, Michael Busch, Tyler Soderstrom

Tier 5: Bryce Eldridge, Spencer Torkelson, Alec Bohm, Ben Rice, Josue Briceño, Spencer Steer

First Base Prospect Rankings

Tier 1: Samuel Basallo, Jac Caglianone

Tier 2: Josue Briceño, Bryce Eldridge

Tier 3: Cam Collier, Jonathon Long, Jared Thomas, C.J. Kayfus, Luke Adams

Tier 4: Tre' Morgan, Deyvison De Los Santos, Tyler Black, Esmerlyn Valdez, Tyler Locklear, Xavier Isaac

First Basemen to Buy/Sell/Hold

Nick Kurtz, Athletics (Buy/Hold)

It's obviously going to take a pretty penny to acquire Nick Kurtz right now, but this is one of the rare times when I recommend buying high in dynasty leagues. Pay the price. Kurtz is worth it. After a slower start to his Major League career, Kurtz has been a force at the plate, cranking 16 home runs in his last 35 games with a 38 RBI, 27 runs scored, and a .287/.376/.713 slash line.

NICK KURTZ WITH HIS FIRST CAREER GRAND SLAM ‼️ pic.twitter.com/UdHdSqQTEe

— Athletics (@Athletics) July 9, 2025

While the strikeout rate is still above 30% and the zone and overall contact rates are below average, all three metrics are trending in the right direction as Kurtz has an 80% zone contact rate and 69% overall contact rate over his last 35 games. Even if he's never more than a fringe-average contact guy, Kurtz's elite quality of contact metrics could allow him to settle in as one of the league's premier power bats.

In his 235 plate appearances so far, Kurtz has recorded a 16.8% barrel rate, 92.4 mph AVG EV, and a 50.4% hard-hit rate. If the contact rate can tick up a bit more, it's not unfathomable to say that Kurtz could steal the first base crown from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the next year or two.

Jac Caglianone, Kansas City Royals (Buy/Hold)

Jac Caglianone and Kurtz have trended in different directions over the last several weeks. While Kurtz has been dominating, Caglianone has struggled to the tune of a .140/.196/.264 slash line with four home runs in 138 plate appearances. It's not all bad, though.

Yes, the surface stats have been extremely disappointing, but Caglianone does have a .259 xBA and .462 xSLG right now. I'm not sure what he did to irritate Lady Luck, but Cags is running a .147 BABIP in the Majors. That's easily the lowest mark among the 221 hitters with at least 100 plate appearances since June 1st, with the next lowest being Matt Shaw at .176.

As expected, Caglianone has been hitting the ball hard so far with an 89.1 mph AVG EV, 11.1% barrel rate, and a 42.4% hard-hit rate. He's also done a nice job of keeping his strikeout rate in check at 21.7% while posting a solid 84.3% zone and 72.2% overall contact rate.

However, the major red flag with Caglianone right now and throughout his entire collegiate and professional career has been his aggressive approach at the plate. In the Majors, Caglianone has chased at an alarming 39% clip while walking just 4.3% of the time.

Caglianone is still only 22 and has time to improve his approach and become more patient moving forward. But even if Cags is always a high chase/low walk player, the decent contact skills and elite power could still allow him to be a productive hitter in the .250+/30+ mold. He's a hold if you have him, and I'd even look to buy low if his price tag has come down in your league.

Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs (Hold)

It feels like the season Michael Busch has had isn't being talked about enough. In 341 plate appearances so far, Busch has slashed an impressive .290/.375/.550 with 19 home runs, 59 RBI, and 45 runs scored. Among the 27 qualified first basemen this season, Busch ranks third in home runs, 11th in runs, fourth in RBI, 10th in walk rate, fifth in AVG, fifth in OBP, and 1st in SLG, wOBA, and wRC+. Not too shabby.

Michael Busch goes GRAND. pic.twitter.com/LdKtotBZv4

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) May 3, 2025

I'm 100% buying the Busch breakout. After having solid quality of contact metrics in 2024, he's ascended to another level in the power department this season with a 16.1% barrel rate, 91.7 mph AVG EV, and a 47.5% hard-hit rate. Busch's .587 xSLG ranks eighth-best in all of baseball so far, and his xwOBA on contact is in the top 6% of hitters.

Not only has Busch improved his quality of contact metrics, but he's also trimmed his strikeout rate from 28.6% to 22.6% while improving his zone contact rate from 79.6% to 84.4% and his overall contact rate from 71.6% to 75.6%.

Busch is now an above-average contact bat with the power to be an annual 30-home run bat while playing in a good lineup and a hitter-friendly home park. I'm a firm believer that Busch is here to stay as a Top-10 dynasty first baseman for the next several seasons.

Xavier Isaac, Tampa Bay Rays (Sell)

You probably noticed that Xavier Isaac barely made my Top-15 first base prospects this month. That's because Isaac has struggled mightily since arriving at the Double-A level last summer. After slashing .211/.346/.349 with a 40.6% strikeout rate in 31 games last season in Double-A, Isaac has slashed just .201/.366/.446 with a 29.7% strikeout rate in 41 games this season.

"But Eric, that's still an OPS of .812!"

Yes, it is. But at this point, the red flags outweigh the green flags when it comes to targeting Isaac in dynasty leagues. In addition to having a 34.4% strikeout rate overall, Isaac had a contact rate around 55% last season and 62% this season at the Double-A level. It's not like he was making a ton of contact in Single-A either, as he had a sub-70% contact rate in 2023 and around 61% before getting the bump to Double-A.

With Isaac, the raw power and ability to draw walks at a high clip still make him somewhat intriguing, but those contact rates simply aren't going to cut it at the Major League level. Given how high the perceived value still seems to be, Isaac is a solid sell right now.

Jonathon Long, Chicago Cubs

If you've followed my Top 25 prospects to stash rankings each week this season here on RotoBaller, you'll probably know that I'm quite high on Chicago Cubs first base prospect, Jonathon Long. In 88 games for Triple-A Iowa this season, Long has slashed an impressive .323/.401/.514 with 16 doubles and 14 home runs.

Long has displayed a solid blend of contact, approach, and power this season, posting an 11% walk rate, 19.6% strikeout rate, 51% hard-hit rate, 91.7 mph AVG EV, 11.2% barrel rate, 77.3% overall contact rate, and an 85% zone contact rate. He's become one of the most underrated Top-100 caliber prospects in the game and is a great value target in dynasty leagues right now before he debuts.

Whether that debut comes with the Cubs or another team, if he's traded at the deadline remains to be seen. But the bat is legit here, and I'm trying to scoop up as many Long shares as I can in dynasty leagues.

Luke Adams and Jared Thomas are also strong buys for me on the prospect side of this position.

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