6 Fantasy Football Sleepers or Busts: Value Picks and Draft Fades for the AFC East (2025)

July 16, 2025

Adam's 2025 fantasy football outlook for the AFC East. His top sleepers, busts, targets, and fades for the Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets, including Drake Maye and more.

Here at RotoBaller, we're sifting through each division and providing you with a list of players to target and avoid. Dave Ventresca kicked us off with the AFC West division, and more will trickle in throughout the next month.

In this article, we'll tap into the AFC East. The Bills are heavily favored to win the division, the Patriots are projected to be much better than they were last season, the Dolphins remain heavily reliant on Tua Tagovailoa, and the Jets are projected to be one of the worst teams in the league.

But when it comes to fantasy football, the end-of-season standings don't really matter. What does matter for those reading this article is the fantasy value of the players in the division. Here are six players in the AFC East to target or avoid in 2025.

AFC East Targets

Jaylen Waddle - WR, Miami Dolphins

Waddle has now played three seasons with Tyreek Hill. Here's how he's produced in each of those three seasons (per Fantasy Points Data):

It's clear as day that there's an outlier here, and that was the 2024 season. Tagovailoa was in and out of the lineup with a concussion and a hip injury. Jonnu Smith became Tua's safety blanket and erupted for a career-best 88-884-8 on 111 targets. All in all, defenses started to "figure out" the Miami Dolphins' plan of attack.

Things should be a whole lot different in 2025. Smith was traded, Tua is healthy (for now), and head coach Mike McDaniel has a full offseason to adjust to how defenses are playing against the Dolphins. Not to mention, Hill turned 31 this offseason.

For the first time in his career, Tyreek showed major signs of decline last season. Could that be attributed to the dysfunctional offense? Sure, it could. However, it's also possible that he lost a step and is hitting the age curve, when wide receiver production tends to decline significantly.

Waddle, on the other hand, is just 26 years old and has multiple elite seasons under his belt. And the Dolphins still view him as a "top-tier" NFL wide receiver, as they should.

Miami Dolphins view Jaylen Waddle as a “top-tier” NFL wide receiver.

Waddle believes he can be even more effective in 2025.https://t.co/sJVyh6Omly

— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) July 8, 2025

Right now, Waddle has a Yahoo ADP of 56 (WR30). In 2022, playing alongside a younger and more explosive Hill, Waddle still managed to put up 15.2 PPR fantasy points per game and finished the year as a back-end WR1.

Take advantage of the discount we're getting on Waddle after a horrific 2024 season down in South Beach.

TreVeyon Henderson - RB, New England Patriots

The Patriots had the fourth-fewest plays of 25 yards or more in 2024. So, naturally, they changed that by selecting one of the most explosive running backs in college football last season in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft.

The TreVeyon Henderson screen TD was more than just speed and poor defensive design.

Texas FS Andrew Mukuba has the pursuit angle, but Henderson is so dang good in the open-field. He anticipates the block of Hinzman #75 and then cuts behind it (all while at full speed). pic.twitter.com/s1EYp3qe6W

— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) January 11, 2025

While running backs in college aren't asked to do much as receivers, Henderson thrived in that role throughout his time at Ohio State.

Because of his abilities as a receiver and in pass-protection as well as a runner, the Patriots view Henderson as a three-down back. Last season, he was the only back in college to receive a PFF rushing grade of 90, a receiving grade of 90, and a pass-blocking grade of 45.

He now joins a Josh McDaniels-led offense that saw James White thrive as a pass-catcher in multiple seasons. Look at White's opportunity as a receiver and how that translated into fantasy greatness across multiple seasons:

White produced a whopping 17.3 PPR fantasy points per game with just a 38.6% opportunity share in 2018. Let's not get ahead of ourselves and say Henderson is jumping into the same situation in 2025, but it's fun to think about.

We'd be remiss not to mention likely "starter" Rhamondre Stevenson, however. While he could open the season as the lead back, most agree it won't be long before Henderson takes over.

With Stevenson grading poorly as a runner in 2024 and with his yards per carry dipping to a career-low 3.87, it's no wonder new head coach Mike Vrabel and his staff prioritized a guy like Henderson in the Draft. You should too!

Drake Maye - QB, New England Patriots

Maye is the next fantasy football cheat code at the quarterback position. He's a runner. As a rookie, he led the entire NFL with 7.8 yards per carry (minimum 50 rush attempts). He did that almost exclusively on scrambles.

Patriots' offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt even admitted to limiting Maye's designed runs with the team out of it.

Per Fantasy Points Data, despite having just one designed run, Maye had 2.8 expected fantasy points per game on his rush attempts. In comparison, 55.4% of Lamar Jackson's runs were designed, and he had 4.1 expected fantasy points per game on the ground.

I'm not saying Maye is the next Jackson, but the expected increase in designed runs should only add to his success on the ground.

In the last three years, no quarterback who rushed for over 500 yards finished any worse than a back-end QB1 on a points per game basis. That includes Daniel Jones in 2022, Justin Fields in 2023, and Kyler Murray in 2024. Those three guys combined to average just 193.7 passing yards and 1.1 passing touchdowns per game in those seasons.

Maye averaged 223.1 passing and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game as a rookie, and he did it in a dysfunctional offense.

Maye also rushed for 36.3 yards per game in his 10 starts last season. Over a 17-game season, that would equate to 617 rushing yards. Remember, that was with just eight recorded snaps as a rusher (Per PFF, Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen all registered over 100 run snaps).

Heading into the 2025 season, Maye has also been gifted a much better OC (Josh McDaniels) and three more offensive weapons in Stefon Diggs, Kyle Williams, and Henderson.

Everything should be better in New England in 2025, and it all starts with Maye. This is your late-round quarterback to target this season.

AFC East Avoids

James Cook - RB, Buffalo Bills

After scoring just two touchdowns on 237 carries in 2023, Cook punched it in 16 times on 207 attempts in 2024. That's a score every 12.9 rush attempts. In comparison, Saquon Barkley scored every 26.5 rush attempts, while Bijan Robinson scored every 21.7 rush attempts.

Touchdowns aren't sticky year-over-year. A player's touchdown total in one season isn't predictive of their touchdowns the following season.

Even if Cook were to score every 20 carries (which is a high rate), he'd have had just 10 touchdowns last season. That's 36 fewer fantasy points. He would have finished as RB19 instead of RB11. Right now, he's the 14th running back off the board in 2025 fantasy drafts.

It's not just expected touchdown regression. Per Fantasy Points Data, Cook ranked just 27th in expected fantasy points per game in 2024. That was fewer expected fantasy points than Rico Dowdle and Najee Harris.

Cook was also used less as a pass-catcher in 2024 than he was in 2023. His route participation rate dropped from 40.9% to 35.2%. His target share subsequently dropped from 9.3% to 7.7%.

We know that targets are king for running backs. So if you're not getting targets, you have to score a lot of touchdowns to make up for it. Cook did that in 2024, but the chances of him doing that again in 2025 are slim.

Not to mention, we should reasonably expect second-year back Ray Davis to get more opportunities this season. At the same time, Ty Johnson appears to be a favorite of offensive coordinator Joe Brady on obvious passing downs and in the two-minute drill.

With that said, don't expect more opportunities for Cook this season. Despite scoring 18 touchdowns in 2024, his opportunity share decreased from 62.4% to 58.9% from 2023 to 2024. That could decrease even more in 2025 with a healthy dose of Davis and Johnson. Avoid Cook at his inflated price tag.

Khalil Shakir - WR, Buffalo Bills

Shakir is a good NFL wide receiver. However, his real-life value doesn't quite align with his fantasy value.

Per Fantasy Points Data, Shakir was 40th among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (11.4). He also ranked just 78th in air yards share (15.4%).

Shakir's game is predicated on his ability to win vs. zone from the slot, but that doesn't offer yards after the catch or big-play opportunities.

He's great at beating zone coverage, with a win rate of 61.2% (per PlayerProfiler). For comparison, slot maven Amon-Ra St. Brown had a win rate of 51.5% vs. zone in 2024.

The difference is that St. Brown runs other routes, whereas Shakir played a whopping 70% of his snaps from the slot. St. Brown was at just 43%.

He's also not used in the red zone, and we want our wide receivers to score touchdowns. Last season, despite averaging 6.5 targets per game, Shakir saw just three end zone targets. John Metchie, Tim Patrick, KaVontae Turpin, Parker Washington, and Ja'Lynn Polk all saw more end zone targets in 2024.

Now add Josh Palmer to the fold. With his ability to separate vs. man coverage, it's going to be hard to keep him off the field.

Best Separation Score vs. Man Coverage (2024)
min. 100 routes + Ravens receivers arbitrarily excluded

1. Mike Evans (0.387)
2. Ladd McConkey (0.289)
3. Josh Palmer (0.267) 👀
4. Amon-Ra. St Brown (0.265)
5. Marvin Harrison Jr. (0.230)
6. AJ Brown (0.220)

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) July 11, 2025

That spells trouble for Shakir, who often comes off the field in 12 personnel. The Bills found a lot of success in 12 personnel last season, so that likely won't change in 2025.

While Shakir is a very consistent producer, he scored over 20 fantasy points just once in 2024 and has done so just twice in his three-year career. He also only has seven total touchdowns on 165 career targets.

Dalton Kincaid - TE, Buffalo Bills

Kincaid has a Dawson Knox problem. With Knox active and playing upwards of 50% of the snaps, Kincaid just isn't running enough routes to get us excited in fantasy football.

In his rookie season, Kincaid played five games without Knox. In those five games, his route participation rate was 76.4%. He averaged 56.2 yards on 7.4 targets per game.

But in 2024, with a healthy Knox, Kincaid had a route participation rate of just 57.7% and averaged just 34.5 yards on 5.5 targets per game.

Many expected Kincaid to take a step forward in his sophomore season, but that didn't happen with Knox still squarely in the fold. Knox isn't running a whole lot of routes, but he's playing enough to take valuable opportunities away from Kincaid.

The Bills also became a much more run-heavy team last season compared to the 2023 season. In 2023, they ran on 46% of their offensive plays, while in 2024, that number jumped up to nearly 50%. Their pass attempts per game dropped from 34.1 to 30.1.

Buffalo also added Palmer in the offseason. He joins Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Elijah Moore, and Curtis Samuel in what now looks like a crowded group of pass-catchers at Josh Allen's disposal.

Let somebody else in your league draft Kincaid in 2025.

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