6 Fantasy Football Undervalued or Overvalued AFC West Draft Picks: Top Targets/Avoids for 2025

Dave's 2025 fantasy football outlook for the AFC West. His top sleepers, busts, targets, and fades for the Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos, including Justin Herbert and more.

Every year in fantasy football drafts, there are players we want to target and those we want to avoid. It’s one of the core strategies to winning your league. The Kansas City Chiefs have long dominated the AFC West, and they have been a fantasy gold mine for years in the process. Be that as it may, there are still other players in the AFC West we need to discuss.

As part of our in-depth fantasy football coverage here at RotoBaller, we are examining which players you should target and which ones you should fade across all eight divisions in the NFL. Today, we will break down several players from the AFC West, as well as what you should do with these players.

Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here are several AFC West players to target and fade in your 2025 fantasy football draft.

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AFC West Targets

Omarion Hampton - RB, Los Angeles Chargers

While Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty got all the headlines as the clear-cut RB1 of the incoming rookie class, Hampton isn’t that far behind.

Omarion Hampton Ranked in the 97th Percentile in Yards After Contact Per Attempt (4.3)

➖Age: 21 (Early Declare)
➖Size: 6’0, 220 lbs

Hampton’s Averages over the last 2 Seasons:

➖24 Touches Per Game
➖150.4 Yards Per Game
➖1.32 TD’s Per Game

Future Workhorse RB1 in the NFL pic.twitter.com/Dfd8kA8zIi

— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) January 29, 2025

Hampton is an extremely talented back who excelled at the NFL Combine. It was also reported that some teams had him and Jeanty neck and neck for the RB1 title.

The Chargers are very bullish on Hampton's future and felt comfortable spending the 22nd overall pick on him in the NFL Draft. It's easy to see why. His tape is great, and he scored well in several advanced metrics. Among 161 collegiate rushers with 100+ carries, Hampton ranked 15th in PFF's elusive rating, 10th in PFF's rushing grade, and sixth in missed tackles forced (MTF).

Hampton will have to beat out former Pittsburgh Steeler Najee Harris for the RB1 job in Los Angeles. While Harris was better in Pittsburgh than many would like to admit, he is not the same caliber of player as Hampton.

This was arguably the best landing spot for a rookie running back, and it's only a matter of time before Hampton takes over this backfield. When he does, there will be some monster games in his future, and Hampton could be a league winner.

R.J. Harvey - RB, Denver Broncos

Harvey was selected 60th overall by the Denver Broncos in the 2025 NFL Draft. It was a noteworthy selection as Harvey was initially viewed as an underrated prospect and wasn’t expected to receive Round 2 draft capital.

However, Sean Payton and the Broncos saw something they liked in the rookie.

RJ Harvey TO THE HOUSE

What an answer by @UCF_Football 🔥

(brought to you by @wendys #ad #WendysPartner) pic.twitter.com/0YH8EHkvHR

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 28, 2024

Harvey is a talented player with good vision, burst, and contact balance. Combine that with Sean Payton’s offense as well as his history of drafting running backs (Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram II, Alvin Kamara), and it’s easy to get excited about Harvey’s prospects.

His advanced metrics in college were also quite good. Among 161 collegiate backs with 100+ carries in 2024, Harvey finished 14th in PFF rushing grade, 19th in PFF elusive rating, and eighth in missed tackles forced. He is an underrated receiver and should thrive in Payton’s offense.

Harvey’s fantasy value took a bit of a hit following Denver’s signing of J.K. Dobbins. While that's understandable, it’s worth pointing out that there have been several times Payton’s offenses have produced multiple fantasy-relevant backs.

Dobbins caps Harvey’s upside, but the rookie can still be a strong contributor at the running back position. Consider Harvey a solid RB2 with upside for more.

Rashee Rice - WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Rice was a popular breakout pick last season. It looked like things were on the right track, but then disaster struck. Rice suffered a serious knee injury in a Week 4 game against the Los Angeles Chargers. It was later revealed he tore his LCL and was ruled out for the season.

Chiefs place WR Rashee Rice on injured reserve. pic.twitter.com/TuZ9sSaklw

— NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2024

He only played in three games last year, but Rice’s advanced metrics will leave you salivating. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Rice posted an elite 35 percent targets per route run (TPRR) as well as a remarkable 3.47 yards per route run (YPRR). These are very high marks, and scores like these indicate a high likelihood for fantasy football success. A monster season could be coming for Rice.

Mahomes ➡️ Rice, what a connection!

📺: #CINvsKC on CBS/Paramount
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/5jkq5qhePc

— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024

Rice is expected to make a full recovery from his injury, but his place on our list is tentative as he awaits word from the NFL on a possible suspension due to an off-field incident last spring. Should he be hit with a significant suspension, we will update his place on our list accordingly. Until we hear otherwise, though, Rice appears to be a classic Year 3 breakout candidate.

With Travis Kelce another year older, Rice could potentially take over as Patrick Mahomes' top receiver. If Rice plays the full season, a 100+ reception campaign is a real possibility, and he could emerge as a PPR cheat code. There are many reasons to be excited about Rice’s 2025 season.

AFC West Avoids

Travis Kelce - TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Kelce is arguably the greatest tight end in the history of the NFL, but he’s on his last legs. While he was still targeted 133 times and caught 97 receptions last year, his efficiency took a major dip.

Kelce only produced 823 receiving yards on nearly 100 catches and only averaged 8.5 yards per reception, as well as scoring just three touchdowns. It seems he has lost a step and may not offer gamers the same upside he once did.

FOUR TDs for @Tkelce ‼️

📺: #LVvsKC on ESPN
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/qRoro7dq9P pic.twitter.com/2UlpSsq1Lk

— NFL (@NFL) October 11, 2022

Third-year receiver Rashee Rice is expected back following an LCL tear he suffered in Week 4 of the 2024 season. Rice seemed to emerge as Kansas City’s top receiver in the first three games of the 2024 season.

Before his injury, Rice posted a 24-288-2 line on 29 targets during the first three games of 2024. This is noteworthy because Kelce’s splits with Rice healthy last year were very troubling. In that same three-game sample, Kelce posted an 8-69-0 line on just 12 targets.

It seemed that Kansas City wanted to utilize Rice as its new intermediate/short-yardage threat. This would make sense as he offers much more juice after the catch than Kelce currently does at this stage of his career.

Second-year receiver Xavier Worthy also showed signs of improvement to close 2025, and the team has stated its desire to further incorporate him into the offense. Marquise Brown also re-signed with Kansas City and is healthy entering the season. His presence adds more target competition for Kelce.

Kelce is one of the greatest players in the history of the NFL, but Father Time catches up to everyone. Combine that with a very crowded, young, and talented receiving room, and it becomes obvious Kelce takes a step back in 2025.

Isiah Pacheco - RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Pacheco was a popular breakout pick heading into 2024, but things quickly went sideways when he suffered a broken fibula in Week 2. The injury knocked him out of action for 10 weeks before he eventually returned in Week 13.

Upon his return, Pacheco was not immediately reinserted into the lineup as Kansas City’s RB1. That may have been the team taking it easy with the young back, but even as Pacheco was further removed from his injury, the team chose to work him in tandem with veteran Kareem Hunt.

The Chiefs could have easily given the RB1 job back to Pacheco, but chose not to do so. Perhaps it was partly due to his play whenever he was on the field. Pacheco averaged a career-worst 3.7 yards per attempt in 2024. He also graded poorly in several running back metrics. Out of 53 backs with 80+ carries, Pacheco finished:

46th in PFF Rushing Grade
50th in Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF), per Fantasy Points Data Suite
50th in Yards After Contact Per Attempt (YACO/ATT), per Fantasy Points Data Suite
53rd in PFF's Elusive Rating

Some of his struggles in 2024 could be attributed to his injury. However, the fact that Kansas City was so quick to move away from Pacheco for the 29-year-old Hunt is a bit of a red flag.

The team also added rookie Brashard Smith in the 2025 NFL Draft. Smith was only a seventh-round pick, but the team is reportedly quite bullish on his outlook. There's also been chatter that Smith will be used in a pass-catching role right out of the gates. That would automatically hurt Pacheco's ceiling, and if he continues to struggle as a rusher, Smith could begin poaching carries as well.

Pacheco might seem like a value at his current ADP. However, there's a possibility he's not the same player following his injury, and he could cede pass-catching work to Smith. Pacheco is no longer a lock for a three-down role, and that hurts his fantasy value.

Gamers should look elsewhere for running back bargains in their drafts.

Justin Herbert - QB, Los Angeles Chargers

Unfortunately, Herbert’s first season under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman went exactly as expected. Herbert averaged the fewest pass attempts per game of his career and failed to break 4,000 passing yards.

He did have a successful season and threw 23 touchdown passes against just three interceptions. However, the Chargers' new offensive approach didn’t equate to elite fantasy production as Herbert finished 2024 as the QB19 in fantasy points per game.

With the offseason additions of Harris and Hampton, it appears that the Chargers will continue to heavily rely on their ground game. That should mean more of the same for Herbert in 2025. He’s still one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league, but the recipe for elite fantasy football production isn’t here.

There are better late-round quarterbacks to target in drafts this year.

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