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Mitch lists eight fantasy football sleepers to target in 2025 drafts. These WRs, RBs, and QBs are top breakout candidates: Jameson Williams, Isaiah Davis, J.J. McCarthy, more
Last season at this time, Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown was drafted in the eighth round or later in most fantasy drafts. He ended up gaining 1,350 yards from scrimmage while scoring 11 touchdowns, finishing as the RB10.
We’re all looking for the next sleeper to help us win our leagues this year. Will it be a receiver who breaks out with better quarterback play? A running back who gets a chance on a new team?
Here are my picks for eight WRs, RBs, and QBs with plausible cases to significantly outperform their Average Draft Position (ADP). ADPs are sourced from the Fantasy Football Players Championship data, available at RotoBaller.
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WR Sleepers for 2025 Fantasy Football
Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns
Fantasy Football Players Championship ADP: 178
Tillman had a slow start after being drafted in the third round in 2023, but that wasn’t entirely his fault. The Browns suffered from some of the worst quarterback play in history during Tillman’s first two years in the NFL. It wasn’t until Deshaun Watson got injured in Week 7 that Tillman was finally able to produce.
When Jameis Winston took over, Tillman went off. In the next five weeks, the Tennessee product caught 26 passes for 330 yards and three touchdowns. In Week 11, he had a concussion and missed the rest of the season.
Like Winston, potential starting quarterback Joe Flacco is a gunslinger. Some fantasy managers might be avoiding Tillman because of the uncertainty in the Browns quarterback room. But the presence of four possible starters, including two rookies, means there is a higher chance that one of those guys will hit.
Regardless of how bad the eventual Cleveland quarterback is, he can’t be much worse than the Browns quarterback last season. George Pickens gained 1,140 yards with Kenny Pickett throwing him the ball in 2023. If Flacco, Dillon Gabriel, or Shedeur Sanders beat out Pickett, they would likely be better.
Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions
Fantasy Football Players Championship ADP: 57
Williams already broke out last season, and this season, he figures to be an even bigger part of the Lions offense.
Assistant coach Scottie Montgomery said, “(If) he keeps developing the way he's going right now, he's going to get to a location he really, really likes. I'm really satisfied with where he is right now.”
New offensive coordinator John Morton said, “It's going to be a breakout year for him. I can't wait.” Morton oversaw Bo Nix’s rookie breakout as the Broncos passing game coordinator last season.
Williams has improved each season in the league, going from just one catch in a limited rookie campaign to 58 catches for 1,001 yards and seven touchdowns last season. He’s being drafted as the WR27 in the Fantasy Football Players Championship and is a strong candidate to finish as a top-24 WR.
Christian Kirk, WR, Houston Texans
Fantasy Football Players Championship ADP: 117
Kirk has not lived up to the $72 million contract he signed in 2022. He has been injured in the past two seasons, and the Jaguars haven’t utilized him. Kirk only played in eight games before breaking his collarbone midseason. He only played in 12 games the year before.
When he was on the field, the Jaguars didn’t use him much. He runs over 80% of his snaps out of the snap. His slot rate was the seventh highest in the league last season. The Jaguars rarely run three-receiver sets. They only used a slot on approximately 730 snaps last season.
Now Kirk has joined the Texans, a team that used a slot receiver on about 840 snaps last season. C.J. Stroud has been graded as a better quarterback than Trevor Lawrence in the past two seasons.
RB Sleepers for 2025 Fantasy Football
Isaiah Davis, RB, New York Jets
Fantasy Football Players Championship ADP: 322
New Jets head coach Aaron Glenn says he wants to have multiple running backs involved in the offense. When asked about the team's top RB, Breece Hall, Glenn said, "I think, mentally, he's in a good place, but I would say that we have three running backs on this team that we're going to utilize as much as possible.”
Glenn may have been the Lions defensive coordinator, but he saw how they utilized two running backs successfully.
Davis was one of the best rookie running backs last season, grading at 75.7 by PFF (although his snap total didn’t meet the minimum).
Jaylen Wright, RB, Miami Dolphins
Fantasy Football Players Championship ADP: 163
Wright just didn’t have a lot of opportunities last season with Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. filling up the Dolphins’ backup spots. But when he did, he was good.
He averaged 3.7 yards per attempt and 3.25 yards after contact per attempt. If the Dolphins have a better offensive line, he could have more room before getting hit.
His rate of forcing missed tackles on nearly a quarter of his carries was in a class with many of the NFL's best. If Tua Tagovailoa plays over 14 games this season, the Dolphins offense as a whole should be better. Even if (and when) Tagovailoa gets injured, Zach Wilson is probably a better backup quarterback than Skylar Thompson.
QB Sleepers for 2025 Fantasy Football
Kenny Pickett, QB, Cleveland Browns
Fantasy Football Players Championship ADP: 330
While it is by no means assured, Pickett has the best odds to be the Browns starting quarterback. DraftKings gives Pickett +100 odds, implying he has a nearly 50% chance of winning the job over the other three contenders.
Recently, we have seen former first-round busts like Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, and Sam Darnold have bounce-backs on new teams later in their careers.
Pickett is a good sleeper to take in the 30th round or later of deep leagues and stash after you have drafted two starting quarterbacks.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Fantasy Football Players Championship ADP: 96
There are two primary reasons why Lawrence could have a breakout season and outperform his fantasy football ADP. The first is that Lawrence will grow himself under the tutelage of Liam Coen.
The second is that Lawrence has such talented receivers supporting him that he will be bound to put up good numbers regardless of how good he is.
Brian Thomas Jr. caught 87 passes for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns in his rookie season, setting team records for a rookie in all categories. Now, the Jags have Travis Hunter coming in. Even a mediocre quarterback throwing to Thomas and Hunter could put up good numbers.
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings
Fantasy Football Players Championship ADP: 105
McCarthy was the number five quarterback off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft, and those taken ahead of him and behind him mostly looked good. Some scouts and analysts, including CBS Sports’ Tom Fornelli and The QB School’s J.T. O’Sullivan, had McCarthy among their top-3 quarterbacks.
Not only is he an accurate passer and a good executor, but he also has sneaky rushing upside. He was clocked running a 4.47 40-time at his pro day, which puts him just a tad slower than Justin Fields. His 6-foot-3, 219-pound frame is hard to bring down.
Critics say he executed a simple offense at Michigan, but Kevin O’Connell’s Minnesota Vikings offense is easy enough that Sam Darnold could put up borderline MVP-caliber numbers last season while throwing to Justin Jefferson.
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