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Colt Emerson is a fantasy baseball prospect sleeper, stash, waiver wire pickup. Matt's suite of fundamentals-rooted evaluation tools provide dynasty outlooks.
I watched Colt Emerson play about a dozen games in Florida from August 2022 through September 2022. First came four USA Baseball 18-Under (18U) National Team Training Camp intrasquad contests at the Twins facility. After making the final roster for the subsequent World Baseball and Softball Confederation 18U Baseball World Cup, he played in a few exhibition friendlies and then started every game of the event.
He wound up both the youngest and among the least physically developed of the position players on the roster. That he also seemed to be the most fundamentally sound and refined player on the team cast him as a player to dream on.
What more did I see then? How have the pro career offensive fundamentals rated so far? Read on to find out.
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August Through September 2022 Live Looks
While in the USA 18U camp and after that with the final team, Emerson stood out as a player who excels at "doing all the little things so well," despite being much younger and less physically developed relative to most position players there.
Emerson lines a single to center to score runner from third, between a pair of plate trips in which he sacrificed and bunt singled a runner at 2nd to 3rd with 0 outs
As the eventual tournament lineup came together, the natural shortstop took over third base and was very impressive in making plays to the forehand, backhand, in, and back from both deeper and shallower starting positions. He simultaneously looked like a shortstop playing third and a shortstop who profiled better at third relative to peers than he did at short.
Emerson consistently turned in high caliber plate appearances. He worked counts for walks. He did not strike out much. He hit line drives. When the lefthanded batter happened to drive a pitch deeper to the outfield, those balls invariably went to the opposite left-center alley.
Not getting the bat head out earlier and driving the occasional pitch deeper from the right-center alley to the right field pole was about all that he did not show. And that relative absence of impactful plate physicality made it tougher to declare him to be among the best few MLB prospects, if not the top one, among players on the final team roster.
Prospect Analysis: Colt Emerson
Evolution of Pro Plate Profile
Emerson was selected earlier in the 2023 MLB Draft than most had forecast at pick 22, where he secured a mini-overslot bonus of $3.8 million from the Mariners.
The 2023 pro debut FaBIO table was littered with green plus to better Ratings. The very fundamentally refined 2022 USA 18U prep player had already proven to be a very fundamentally refined 2023 pro.
What was the 2023 pro debut missing? That same Pull OFFB plate physicality that would enable the not-so-large-physique player to produce relatively more extra bases (ISO) per batted ball. The LD + IFFB + Pull GB Avoid mix was outstanding and allowed him to produce a 100 AVG on Batted Balls even with Pull OFFB being off some to much more at the Rookie and Low-A stops.
His 2024 season would be interrupted early by a 10-day Injured List stint two weeks into it and then again for a month-long one a month later. A 100 Overall that he posted over the oft-disrupted Low-A stint was anchored mostly by each of BB+HBP and K Avoid, almost rating double plus. The 2024 Low-A batted ball profile went still more low-launch extreme relative to the 2023 Low-A one per GB Avoid and OFFB, limiting ISO potential per batted ball.
Emerson was promoted in August to High-A, where BB+HBP and K Avoid registered near half plus over 139 plate trips. He lofted the ball more there, even flashing a Pull OFFB bias on OFFB for the first time. But he was short at turning Pull OFFB into ISO and at hitting LD, which naturally hurt AVG. After Overall-ing better versus Same- than Opposite-Handed Pitchers at each prior stop, he had much worse plate fundamentals against Same- than Opposite-Handed Pitchers in High-A.
The lengthier of the two Injured List stints made Emerson a logical candidate for Arizona Fall League (AFL) play. Over 62 PA there, he posted half minus BB+HBP, average K Avoid, and a 100 Batted Ball Profile.
The 100 Batted Ball Profile was led by a 99 LD Rating that fueled a 95 AVG on Batted Balls Rating. Very few OFFB were again more often pull-thirded, allowing more ISO per batted ball beyond what the LD generated. As was always true before High-A, Same-Handed Pitchers Overall topped Oppo-Handed Pitchers Overall.
Emerson returned to Arizona to take 22 plate trips in the 2025 MLB spring games. He posted miles better (98) BB+HBP and (82) K Avoid Ratings versus the fall. But Batted Ball Profile sank to below minus (14) owing to a very poor combo of LD + IFFB Avoid by past standards. Else, he seldom pulled what for him was a very high volume of OFFB per batted ball.
While we could be seeing small-sample noise in the MLB spring training line, we may also be observing what happens when a lower-launch hit-over-power player raises launch too much too fast. In the latter instance, they surrender too much LD and too much IFFB Avoid in exchange for relatively more OFFB that they must drive with authority and mostly pull to both recreate the AVG they sacrificed via the LD+IFFB Avoid decline and more fully generate the ISO they lacked before and now seek.
Emerson again delivered high-quality MiLB plate appearances at a high clip during 2024. Yet, he lost some favorable traits from his sterling 2023 batted ball profile and wound up not producing much impact on AVG or ISO from batted balls. Plate physicality remains a talking point in the examination of his offensive profile. Did the 2024 injuries undermine the impact of the bat?
Evolution of Pro Offensive Running
Emerson posted a not quite plus (80) Offensive Running Rating over 145 relevant plays during the 2023 pro debut. That number fell to 24 in 2024 Low-A, with the (small bone of a) foot fracture that required the month-plus Injured List trip being the prime suspect. Offensive running later rebounded by rating half plus (69) in High-A and even double plus (98) during the fall league.
With the Baserunner Rating comfortably topping the Batter Rating in every row, we can be fairly confident that Emerson has not transitioned so well from swinger to runner on batted ball plate appearances. Such would hurt his chances of legging out infield singles and beating the rap at first on groundball double play attempts.
Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Focus
At not even 20 years old, Emerson already seems sure to deliver high-caliber MLB plate appearances. The relative wild card remains just how loud the bat can be in terms of hits and, more so, extra bases.
The 2024 early-season oblique strain and a month-later foot bone fracture could have sapped bat physicality just as much as the latter, or both hurt his offensive running marks.
To preserve presently stouter LD + IFFB Avoid + Pull GB Avoid trios that forecast a future high-ish to better AVG on Batted Balls MLB hitter, Emerson should maintain a relative but not overly low-launch bias (circa half minus GB Avoid and OFFB Ratings, perhaps?).
That the lefthanded batter is so adept at driving pitches to left center makes him dangerous against right-handed pitchers' two-seamers, sinkers, and changeups moving away from him on the outer-half. To add more extra bases and especially home runs to his batted ball portfolio, he must spot and seize on opportunities to deliver pull-third outfield flies on offspeeds that enter the down-and-in quadrant of his strike zone, fastballs, and righty cutters located somewhat up-and-in, etc. (the righty who can come in on him will definitely do so).
He may be a plus offensive runner upon MLB arrival, which would bring even more offensive value to the table. Beyond twenty steals annually may be achievable. Technique improvements on plate-to-first sprints could boost his ability to hit for average by a few ticks, or else extend his innings by less often being the tail end of a double play.
Emerson has played a relatively good shortstop to this point in his pro career and still more so if we ignore the oblique-then-foot-marred 2024 Low-A sample of defensive data. He has started 77 games at shortstop, 13 at third base, and eight at second base. One ought not rule out everyday MLB shortstop duty just yet.
Future plate physicality remains the mystery box for fantasy players to open ahead, as it has for me since watching him up close in late 2022.
Brief Explanation of the FaBIO Model
My Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) evaluation model sorts every plate appearance into one of 12 outcome bins (BB+HBP, K, IFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Center-Third OFFB, Oppo-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, Center-Third LD, Oppo-Third LD, Pull-Third GB, Center-Third GB, Oppo-Third GB) and charges the pitcher and batter with their league's mean runs value for said particular event that season.
Dividing a batter's total number of expected runs by plate appearance (PA) yields expected runs per PA that can be percentile ranked relative to the league mean and standard deviation for that parameter amongst league batter qualifiers to arrive at their Overall Rating.
Its three subcomponents of BB+HBP Rating (based on BB+HBP per PA), Strikeout Avoid Rating (K Avoid, based on K per PA), and Batted Ball Profile Rating (expected runs per batted ball) are also reported to identify the path the batter traveled to reach their Overall Rating.
Overall Rating and Batted Ball Profile Rating of batters should be considered power- and speed-neutralized metrics since the real-world runs value of a single batter's typical OFFB or LD varies with their strength, and the expected runs value of their typical GB varies with their speed.
To better understand the Path to Batted Ball Profile, we will also examine percentile ratings for select batted ball event types (on a per-batted ball basis). To check how well expected batted ball outcomes match real-world ones, we will compute percentile ratings for hits (AVG) and isolated power (ISO, or simply extra bases) on batted balls (recognizing full well that these two parameters are neither fielding- nor ballpark-independent outcomes).
What most explains a batter's ability to generate hits (AVG) on batted balls is any LD, IFFB avoidance, Pull-Third OFFB, and Pull-Third GB avoidance. What most explains their ability to generate extra bases (ISO) on batted balls is any OFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, and IFFB avoidance.
A percentile rating of 97 amounts to plus-plus (two standard deviations above the mean), 84 is plus (one standard deviation above the mean), 69 is half plus, 50 is average, 31 is half minus, 16 is minus, and three is minus-minus.
A new addition to this suite of evaluation models is the Offensive Running Rating. This tool quantifies how each relevant inning's run expectancy was impacted by the player's action or inaction as either a batter or baserunner on very specific types of plays that are more likely to involve one or both of their speed or offensive running technique, plus acumen.
The evaluated batter and baserunner events are summarized in the graphic.
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