IDP Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em for Week 9 - Streamers, Fades, Matchups for Defensive Players

November 2, 2024

IDP fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 9 of 2024. Chris looks at IDP streamers, fades, matchups, and starts/sits for NFL defensive players.

Week 9 is yet another unique bye-week scenario for fantasy managers. Specifically, it creates a tough spot for IDP managers who roster some of the top talent at the DL and LB positions. Despite the NFL only resting two teams this week, we lose significant defensive assets from two of the league’s best squads.

On the defensive line, we lose two DL1 options. T.J. Watt is the most-rostered, and most-started, DL in fantasy. He also sits second in total Standard IDP points. Meanwhile, Nick Bosa sits seventh in total fantasy points and is the third-most-rostered DL. Nearly every competitive IDP league starts those players as a DL1, meaning two of IDP’s most valuable assets are on vacation.

Beyond the defensive line, this week robs us of the top-scoring LB in both total fantasy points and fantasy PPG (Fred Warner). It also steals a sneaky amount of DB depth. While the 49ers secondary is wildly under-rostered, Pittsburgh and San Francisco combine for three of the 40 highest-scoring DBs this year. Together, these teams have six of our top 50 DBs rest of the season.

Casual IDP Streamers and Fades

Stream: Laiatu Latu, DL, Indianapolis Colts

Latu’s pressure rate has dipped since he produced back-to-back impressive outings against the Bears and Steelers. However, his prospects are looking up this week.

Colts first-round EDGE Laiatu Latu (No. 97) already looking like a run game mismatch for tight ends pic.twitter.com/wXel9DxswH

— Steve Palazzolo (@StevePalazzolo_) August 12, 2024

The Minnesota Vikings allow the third-most quarterback sacks in the NFL this season. This was despite the fact their left tackle, Christian Darrisaw, had surrendered just 10 quarterback pressures before getting hurt in Week 8. Now that Darrisaw is done for the year, expect the left side of Minnesota’s line to take a massive step back.

Latu takes 87% of his snaps lined up on the left tackle, and he’s playing on over half of his team’s defensive snaps. That’s good news, considering Minnesota isn’t yet sure who will start at left tackle this week. The options appear to be moving guard Blake Brandel outside, playing backup David Quessenberry, or starting a sixth-round rookie.

While Brandel has a positive pass-blocking profile, that's at guard. His film and metrics don't suggest he can move to protect Sam Darnold's blindside without issue. Meanwhile, Quessenberry has been unimpressive in limited snaps, and the rookie (Walter Rouse) hasn't taken a snap in a real NFL game. All of these options are good for Latu.

Note: This column was written before Cam Robinson was traded to the Vikings. However, it remains unclear if Robinson will be able to clear all obstacles and play this week. It also remains to be seen how easily and quickly he will pick up this new scheme, suggesting that he could sit or be a liability this week. Thus, Latu is still a streamer.

Stream: Ernest Jones IV, LB, Seattle Seahawks

After being traded to the Seahawks mid-week, Jones proceeded to have his most productive game of the season. Against the Bills, Jones notched 15 total tackles and played 100% of Seattle’s defensive snaps. That tackle total led the NFL in Week 8.

Now, we must caution that part of Jones' tackle total was game-script-related. Buffalo is one of the most run-oriented offenses in the NFL, and it was playing with a huge lead. Those two things translate to an ideal scenario for a player of Jones' talents.

However, you should still be highly encouraged by this output. Jones was traded mid-week, yet he played 100% of the snaps. That fact shows immense trust from the Seahawks coaching staff. Those coaches know he fits their scheme and gives them the interior force they’ve needed to fill the Roquan Smith role in this outfit.

In a matchup with his old Rams squad, you can expect Jones will again be a fringe LB1 candidate.

Fade: Travon Walker, DL, Jacksonville Jaguars

Walker is having the best season of his career, outshining his more heralded teammate by more than doubling Josh Hines-Allen in the sack department. Unfortunately, this looks to be a down week for a pass-rusher who IDP managers are increasingly relying on.

On the season, Walker has lined up on the right tackle for 83.4% of his defensive snaps. That means he should see Lane Johnson for most of this week's game. In 164 passing sets, Johnson has allowed just two total quarterback pressures and zero sacks. No offensive lineman with at least 150 pass sets has allowed fewer.

Fade: Xavier McKinney, DB, Green Bay Packers

By no means are we telling you to outright bench McKinney. He leads the NFL in interceptions and has proved to be worth every penny the Packers gave him in free agency. With that said, there are multiple reasons to fade him and consider other options as your DB1 this week.

For starters, a whopping 65% of McKinney’s fantasy production comes from interceptions. He is tied for 59^th amongst all defensive backs in total tackles, and he has just one PD that wasn't an interception. Worse, he has just two forced fumbles and 2.5 sacks for his career.

In other words, McKinney's fantasy value highly depends on interceptions this year. That could be a problem, as he now faces a Detroit offense that attempts the fourth-fewest pass attempts in the NFL. Plus, Jared Goff is now injured, and Jordan Love may miss the game. So this could turn into a run-oriented contest with low passing volume.

Premium/Deep League Streamers and Fades

Stream: Rasul Douglas, DB, Buffalo Bills

Douglas is just the 96th-most-started DB in fantasy this week, but he has a plus matchup. The Dolphins attempted 39 pass attempts in their last contest with the Bills, and that was with Tua Tagovailoa missing part of the game.

Elite crack-replace from Rasul Douglas. DB first, CB second. pic.twitter.com/uEmeBhnV8M

— over zone y (@cmikesspinmove) October 29, 2024

The Bills offense scored 31 points against the Dolphins the last time they played, and production has only improved for Josh Allen and company in recent weeks. Do not be surprised if this contest turns into a shootout, with Miami wanting revenge against the team that knocked its quarterback out for multiple weeks.

While the revenge narrative is fun and interesting, the true reason to like this game is the volume you can expect from Douglas. The Dolphins will likely have to air the ball out to their two outside receivers to stay competitive, which means the seven fantasy points Douglas scored against them earlier this season should be his floor.

Stream: Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith Jr., DL, Philadelphia Eagles

The Jacksonville Jaguars are middle of the pack when it comes to pass attempts per game, but they will likely be playing from behind and be forced to throw more than they like against Philadelphia. However, that’s not the primary reason to like Philly’s edge-rushers in this contest.

Jacksonville just traded Cam Robinson, the Jaguars' best pass-blocking tackle by a wide margin. All metrics indicate there is a wide gap between Robinson and the other tackles on this roster. The two projected starters, Anton Harrison and Walker Little, both have graded negatively as pass-blockers this season.

Little is the player most likely to replace Robinson at left tackle, and Little’s metrics are not good. He has graded negatively as a pass-blocker in three of four games this year, and he allows nearly three pressures per contest for his career. Expect Josh Sweat to see a lot of Little, meaning he gets a noteworthy bump in value.

Fade: Grady Jarrett, DL, Atlanta Falcons

The 45th-most-started DL in fantasy, Jarrett places just 80^th in fantasy PPG. Worse, if Jarrett's season-long usage is any indication, he should play over half his snaps against Tyler Smith.

Smith is one of the better pass-blocking guards in the NFL. He allows just 1.4 quarterback pressures per game while being credited with just one sack and two quarterback hits in 315 pass-blocking sets. Zack Martin isn't a significantly easier matchup on the other side, allowing just one pressure per 23.3 pass-rush sets.

Add in that both Smith and Martin grade as above-average run-blockers, with Smith grading near elite in that category, and you have to worry about Jarrett’s production. He’s started in a lot of leagues, but his season-long production and matchup are both unattractive.

Fade: Patrick Surtain II, DB, Denver Broncos

Surtain makes our fade list again, in part because he is currently the 48th-most-rostered and 54th-most-started DB in fantasy. That lofty usage rate is understandable, given his name, status as an elite corner, and the fact he's notched three interceptions in his past three games. However, there are two reasons to fade the All-Pro this week.

First, Surtain is extremely interception-dependent, with 43% of his fantasy stats coming from picks. He simply doesn't get targeted enough to collect tackles or PDs with the other top fantasy DBs. That means he needs a target-hog receiver to shadow on a pass-heavy offense to be trustworthy in fantasy.

The second reason to fade Surtain this week is his matchup. Lamar Jackson has thrown just two interceptions all season. He also has the second-lowest turnover-worthy throw rate in the NFL amongst QBs who have played 50% of their team's snaps. Worse, Baltimore attempts the ninth-fewest passes in the NFL and can afford to avoid Surtain.

Defenders Worth Stashing

Ji’Ayir Brown, DB, San Francisco 49ers

We have recommended stashing Brown in the past, and that recommendation is finally paying off. The Penn State alum is the 68th-most-rostered DB in fantasy, but he’s 55^th in scoring. What’s better, he’s DB43 in Standard IDP scoring over the past five weeks.

Brown is on a bye this week, but his playing time is secure, and his performance is improving. He is worth stashing in deeper leagues and dynasty formats.

Nik Bonitto, DL/LB, Denver Broncos

We have talked about Bonitto in this space a lot. That includes listing him as a breakout, a streamer, a sleeper, and someone you should add. He’s finally responded to that faith by logging a sack in six straight games. Note those are also the six games he has started this season.

Nik Bonitto (#15) winning against Tyron Smith and a little feign from Cody Barton (#55) collapse the pocket quickly pic.twitter.com/qjckSAoPNi

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 30, 2024

Despite that hot streak, Bonitto remains the 111th-most-rostered DL in fantasy. One should never overreact to a hot streak in which a player remains dependent on one mercurial stat for fantasy production. However, the former Sooner has always been a gifted pass-rusher, and his value will likely go up for those in dynasty leagues.

Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Green Bay Packers

Cooper was our LB Riser of the Week this week, but his low roster rate means he should also be included here. The 70th-most-rostered LB in fantasy, this rookie has seen his playing time and fantasy production nearly double over the past three weeks. Not only that, he has shown on film that he can cover, rush the passer, and help in run support.

Those in dynasty must stash Cooper. Those in redraft leagues should also consider doing so if you start at least three LBs or have a deep bench. In his past three games, which is when his playing time doubled, Cooper is averaging 8.5 Standard IDP points per game. That average would be good for LB18 on the season.

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