Ravens vs. Chiefs TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, Mark Andrews, Xavier Worthy, Zay Flowers, Marquise Brown, more

September 3, 2024

Fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em, and lineup advice for the Ravens vs. Chiefs on Thursday Night Football in Week 1 (2024). Detailed player breakdowns and TNF matchup analysis.

Are you ready for some football? After a long eight months, the NFL is back, baby, and so is the Thursday Night Football preview from a fantasy football angle. This first game of the season is always one of the most anticipated and exciting of the entire season and the 2024 debut is no different. Fresh off back-to-back Super Bowl titles, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Baltimore Ravens in a clash of two of the best teams in the AFC.

As we all know, we should relish this Thursday night elite matchup. When we get to Week 12 and Justin Fields is throwing interceptions for the Steelers and Jameis Winston is playing YOLO-ball for the Browns, we will long for the days of a Chiefs-Ravens matchup. This game will have a plethora of fantasy options available to managers and we will get our first glimpses of stars in new places such as Derrick Henry and Marquise Brown.

I will be bringing you Thursday Night Football analysis all year long, focusing on who to definitely start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this first awesome Thursday Night matchup that kicks off the 2024 season. You can also read our Week 1 Friday Night Football start 'em, sit 'em matchups and all Week 1 start 'em, sit 'em matchups analysis for all Sunday and Monday games. Good luck RotoBallers!

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs - 8:20 pm ET

Notable Injuries:

• Marquise Brown (WR, KC) - Shoulder - OUT

Ravens at Chiefs Matchup Breakdown

The Kansas City Chiefs will get their 2023 Super Bowl rings in front of a crazy Arrowhead Field crowd on September 5th. After that pomp and circumstance, we should be treated to a matchup of two of the premier offenses in football going head to head for three and a half hours. Traditionally, these two teams feature vastly different styles of play on offense, and the team that is allowed to play their own game on that side of the ball likely controls the cadence of this matchup.

Ravens. Chiefs.

TWO MORE WEEKS until kickoff on NBC & Peacock. 😤 #NFL pic.twitter.com/Soe8RFowi6

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) August 22, 2024

The Chiefs are all but certain to get back to their pass-heavy ways now that they are fully reloaded at wide receiver and Travis Kelce is healthy to start the year. The Chiefs were third in pass attempts per game, seventh in pass-play percentage, and first in the NFL in pass rate over expectation in 2023. That doesn't mean their run game isn't potent as Isiah Pacheco - now clearly a bell-cow running back - was the RB6 in half-PPR fantasy points per game from Weeks 13-18 last season.

The Ravens want to establish the run like it's never been established before. They were first in the NFL in 2023 with 49.9% of their plays called as a run. They were tied for first in yards per rush attempt and Lamar Jackson loves to scramble for his patented 12 yards when a play breaks down in the secondary. My expectation for the Ravens is they will try to control clock with new running back weapon Derrick Henry and keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes' hands.

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)

Is there a scenario where you wouldn't play Patrick Mahomes in a home game? I guess if his right arm was cut off at the elbow and it was Week 18 and the Chiefs had already locked up the #1 seed. Then I might consider benching him. Even in a "down" year, Mahomes was first in the NFL in true completion percentage, third in pass attempts and red zone attempts, and sixth in passing yards in 2023. Now he has upgraded weapons. It's simply unfair.

Travis Kelce (TE, KC)

On one hand, we have Travis Kelce, the Chiefs all-everything tight end, saying he knows it's for the "betterment of the team" when he doesn't play on every snap. On the other, he is telling reporters he wants the Chiefs to "wear me and tear me, baby." So which will it be in 2024? One thing is for certain: Travis Kelce will be on the field when it matters. He will be there for just about every red zone play and passing down. No matter how much Kelce actually plays, you're playing him in your lineup.

Rashee Rice (WR, KC)

The closer we get to the 2024 season, the less likely it appears he will be suspended for any of his felony activities in the offseason. With legal dates set for December, the NFL would likely impose some kind of sanction after that time. Rashee Rice was the WR9 in fantasy points per game in Weeks 12-18 last season after finally being elevated to full-time status in terms of snap counts.

Mahomes finds Rice in the back of the end zone pic.twitter.com/i2SlZduRa0

— EDDIE HIGH (@EddieHigh) August 14, 2024

Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)

The Chiefs not bringing back Jerick McKinnon could mean big things for running back Isiah Pacheco, who became a key piece of this offense down the stretch last year. In four games without McKinnon, he averaged over 20 touches and over 100 yards per game. Pacheco is an underrated pass-catcher as well, hauling in 44 catches for 244 yards and two scores through the air. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is dust, so this is officially Pacheco's backfield.

Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)

An underreported part of this matchup is that the Kansas City Chiefs allowed the fourth-most rushing attempts and 10th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks last year. Kansas City's defensive line was monstrous , but they struggled to put rushing quarterbacks away when they had the chance. We know Lamar will run, but he may also try to build on his outstanding passing gains from 2023. He was first in fantasy points per drop-back and sixth in air yards per attempt.

.@Lj_era8 ➡️ @ZayFlowers 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Gx2am1LB9z

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) June 12, 2024

Derrick Henry (RB, BAL)

At some point, Derrick Henry is going to fall off the age cliff, but he is healthy and motivated heading into Week 1 in perhaps the best opportunity he could have. The Ravens lead the league in rush attempts and rushing percentage every year. Is Lamar Jackson a threat to steal carries and goal-line touches? Yes, but Justice Hill (inefficient) and Keaton Mitchell (out hurt) are not serious competition right now. Henry should push for 250+ touches again in 2024.

Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)

UPDATE: Mark Andrews is healthy and has been cleared to play. He is a must-start. Monitor the news on Mark Andrews closely as official injury reports start coming out on Labor Day. The coaches say he is fine after missing some practice this week with an undisclosed injury, but we can't take any chances on the first game of the year that's played on a Thursday night. Despite missing seven games in 2023, Andrews was top-five at the position in target share, touchdowns, fantasy points per game, and yards per route run.

Zay Flowers (WR, BAL)

You know all Zay Flowers wants to do is get back on this same field and make up for the colossal mistake that could have cost the Ravens a trip to the Super Bowl last year. Despite his six drops (and that ghastly fumble) last year, Flowers emerged as a reliable wide receiver on a run-heavy squad. He was top-30 at the position in fantasy points per game and was 15th in yards after the catch. Look for him to be heavily involved in this game.

Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Xavier Worthy (WR, KC)

Count me among those who believe Xavier Worthy will be a wonderful addition to the Chiefs offense, but I am going to need to see it before he is a lineup lock. Partly because of the offensive line and partly because of offensive weapons (or lack thereof), Mahomes had his lowest adjusted yards per attempt and yards per completion of his career last year.

That doesn't align with Worthy's game, so he is on the borderline for me until we see him and Mahomes hook up in games that count. I have no doubt Mahomes will improve in both categories this year - and Worthy may be the reason why - but let's first see how he fits into the Kelce-Rice-Pacheco equation before calling him a must-start.

MAHOMES TO WORTHY ⚡️

This is gonna be fun.

📺: #DETvsKC on @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/gYsUZOk5k5

— NFL (@NFL) August 17, 2024

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Marquise Brown, Skyy Moore, and JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, KC)

Marquise Brown suffered a serious shoulder injury in a preseason game and will miss Week 1. That bumps up players like Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy, but Brown will have to wait his turn. Juju Smith-Schuster has been back on the Chiefs for like five minutes and likely won't be much of a factor in Week 1.

Skyy Moore was given a chance to play on 53% of offensive snaps last year, but only turned that into 21 receptions and one touchdown with a 55% catch rate. That's not going to get it done with the new weapons Patrick Mahomes has at his disposal. Add in the emergence of Carson Steele as a pass-catcher and Skyy Moore's underneath role might be unnecessary.

Isaiah Likely (TE, BAL)

If for some reason the injury with Mark Andrews is more serious than the Ravens are letting on, Isaiah Likely would bump up to a must-start if Andrew will be out or limited. As a backup, Likely has far less appeal on a week-to-week basis, but he is the ultimate tight end handcuff that exists in fantasy football. He will have big weeks this season, but they will come when Andrews does not play or is limited.

Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor (WR, DET)

Data from the last three seasons shows that the Ravens just don't throw enough to support fantasy-relevant volume for a WR1 like Zay Flowes, a TE1 like Mark Andrews, plus another pass-catcher or two. Considering how often they play to run and how narrow the target tree is for Lamar Jackson, Bateman and Agholor belong on the bench except for deep leagues that start three wide receivers or two Flex.

Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks

Current Spread: KC -3, Total: 46.5

We have seen this show play many times over the years that Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have been the directors of their team's performances. Unfortunately for the Ravens, it doesn't usually end well for them. Since 2018, the Chiefs have won four of the five contests between these teams and only one of those games (back in 2020) was decided by more than seven points.

Just seven months ago, the Chiefs closed out a tough, defensive struggle versus Baltimore, winning in the playoffs 17-10. I predict more offense than that in this game, although not enough to cover the 46.5 total. I think with the downgrade on the offensive line for the Ravens, they will find it tougher to run and string together long drives. The Chiefs cover and win by a score of 24-17.

The Pick: Chiefs -3, Under 46.5

2024 Record: Spread (0-0), Over/Under (0-0) -  It can only go downhill from here!

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