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Fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em, and lineup advice for the Packers vs. Eagles on Friday Night Football in Week 1 (2024). Detailed player breakdowns and first Friday matchup analysis.
For the first time in NFL history, a prime-time Friday Night Football game will follow the traditional Thursday night kickoff game, and this game has a twist. The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles will play a fantasy football dream matchup on September 6 in Sao Paolo, Brazil. This game, to be televised on the Peacock streaming service, is part of the NFL's effort to internationalize the league and bring more global fans.
Fantasy football fans like us don't care where the game is played, necessarily. We just love the fact that we will have back-to-back nights of a fantasy football cornucopia. There will be no shortage of players to insert into fantasy lineups from this game, and it features the fourth-highest implied total from the entire weekend.
I will be bringing you "Thursday Night Football" matchups analysis all year long (and Friday Night Football for Week 1!), focusing on who to start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this first awesome Friday night matchup that kicks off the 2024 season. You can also read our Week 1 "Thursday Night Football" start 'em, sit 'em matchups and all Week 1 start 'em, sit 'em matchups analysis for all Sunday and Monday games. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles - 8:15 p.m. ET
Notable Injuries:
- MarShawn Lloyd (RB, GB) - Hamstring - OUT
- Emanuel Wilson (RB, GB) - Hip - Active
- Tucker Kraft (TE, GB) - Pectoral - Active
- A.J. Dillon (RB, GB) - Neck - Out - Injured Reserve
Packers at Eagles Matchup Breakdown
For these two teams, it was a tale of two halves down the stretch of the 2023 season and continuing into the playoffs. The Green Bay Packers started slowly, but finished the season 6-2 in their final eight games, scoring 25.5 points per game. They destroyed the Dallas Cowboys in the first round of the playoffs.
The Eagles, after starting 10-1, went 1-5 to close the season, scoring 20 points per game in that span. They would then get smacked by a score of 32-9 against Tampa Bay in the playoffs, leading to major changes on the team.
The uniforms you'll see on the @packers and @Eagles in Brazil. 🔥 @NFLBrasil
📺: #GBvsPHI – Friday Sep. 6, 8:15pm ET on Peacock pic.twitter.com/XBS8XN399T
— NFL (@NFL) August 30, 2024
Kellen Moore has been brought in as offensive coordinator to creatively open up the offense in Philadelphia. Saquon Barkley is here to make big plays in the run game. The Eagles recently traded for Washington wide receiver Jahan Dotson as another playmaker who can hopefully stretch the field.
Last season, the Eagles were just 17th in seconds per play and 15th in time of possession. I expect them to play much faster this year, beginning with what is sure to be a shootout with Green Bay.
The Packers didn't need to do much on offense. They let Aaron Jones go and brought in workhorse running back Josh Jacobs. That turned out to be a fortuitous move as AJ Dillon has been placed on IR with a neck issue.
On the passing side of the ball, the Packers and coach Matt LaFleur are just counting on another year of growth and maturity for the suddenly potent arsenal of Jordan Love and his top four wide receivers: Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks.
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Will the retirement of Jason Kelce hurt the "Tush Push" and Jalen Hurts' fantasy value to the point where he is not worth being an every-week starter? I am guessing the answer is a resounding "no." In Weeks 1-12 last season, Hurts was the QB2 in fantasy points per game.
That fell off to QB17 during the Eagles' disastrous run to the end of the season, but Kellen Moore should have the offense back on track to start the season. The Packers were stingy with quarterbacks last season, but they did allow the fourth-most rushing yards to the position.
Saquon Barkley (RB, PHI)
Despite the dangerous Hurts-Brown-Smith trio, the Eagles did love to run the ball last year. At a 45.1% rush rate, they had the seventh-highest mark in the league.
How Kellen Moore decides to use Saquon Barkley should be an interesting subplot to this game and this season, and I anticipate he is going to get him in space, where Barkley is known to make home-run plays. Green Bay also allowed the seventh-most rushing touchdowns in the NFL last year.
Mekhi Becton & Lane Johnson + Saquon Barkley in the run game might actually do some devastating damage to the league this year pic.twitter.com/nND0RRP44y
— Josh Sweat Truther (@EaglesBurna) August 29, 2024
A.J. Brown (WR, PHI)
Despite Philadelphia's offensive struggles in the last seven weeks of the season, A.J. Brown was sixth in target share, fourth in air yards, fifth in receiving yards, and 14th in red-zone targets among wide receivers. This is not an overthink it decision. Brown is a borderline first-round pick for a reason.
DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI)
DeVonta Smith may be the Robin to A.J. Brown's Batman, but that does not mean he is a second fiddle by any means. Smith had over a 30% air yards share in 2023 and was 16th in receptions while playing 100% of Philadelphia's passing downs. The Packers don't have the secondary to contain Smith.
Jordan Love (QB, GB)
There is no way that a 5.5% touchdown rate or a minuscule 1.9% interception rate can be repeated in 2024, but the Packers are so focused on the big play (5.7 yards per play was fifth in the NFL) and love to throw the ball with such frequency (57% of the time) that the volume Jordan Love will see this season will make up for any regression in touchdown rate and interceptions.
Another year older and wiser, Love has a buffet of options open to him in the offense now.
Jordan love gunna pick up right where he left off against that atrocious eagles secondary pic.twitter.com/VWMUNNzZT5
— RELAX (@itssRELAX) August 31, 2024
Josh Jacobs (RB, GB)
Josh Jacobs may have a tough rushing day on Friday, and he may not be a set-it-and-forget-it RB1 anymore. With AJ Dillon on IR, Jacobs' volume may trump any inefficiencies he could have in Brazil. Matt LaFleur likes to deploy a committee traditionally, but with Dillon out and rookie MarShawn Lloyd nursing an injury, Jacobs could be in for a heavy workload.
Christian Watson (WR, GB)
Now with his symmetrical leg problems fixed, the Packers believe that Christian Watson's hamstring injuries are a thing of the past. When healthy, Watson was a top-25 wide receiver in air yards share and had the sixth-longest average depth of target (aDOT) among all wide receivers in 2023.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
UPDATE: Dallas Goedert practiced this week and will play Friday barring a setback. Dallas Goedert is an injury situation to watch carefully as Friday approaches. He has not been practicing with an oblique injury, but it's mainly seen as a precaution so he will be available for the opening game.
On Monday, there should be an official injury report to see, which will tell us a lot. The Packers allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends last year and the two Eagles receivers should see plenty of double teams.
Dallas Goedert back at practice #Eagles pic.twitter.com/Zht5DHTKF6
— John McMullen (@JFMcMullen) September 1, 2024
Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed (WR, GB)
It's almost uncanny how similar Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed were in terms of their stats last year. Doubs had 96 targets and eight receiving touchdowns. Reed had 94 targets and eight receiving touchdowns as well. That rate of touchdowns per target put them both in the top 10 of wide receivers who played in at least 15 games last season.
With touchdown rates over 8% for both players, there is a chance that regression comes for one or both. I am starting both, but it will be interesting to see if one emerges above the other this season.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Jahan Dotson and Johnny Wilson (WR, PHI)
The target tree in Philadelphia is just so narrow in past seasons that it's impossible to rely on these two receivers until we see more info about how this offense will operate or until an injury occurs.
In 2023, among 458 targets to non-running backs, 371 of them went to Brown, Smith, and Goedert. I do think both of these receivers are very good players, but at this point, they are just insurance for the Eagles and for our fantasy rosters.
Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft (TE, GB)
Both Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft have had some phenomenal moments in their young careers, but they often eat into each other's work. The Packers were 21st in the NFL last year with just 100 targets thrown to the tight-end position.
Among Musgrave and Kraft, that was divided up with 46 to Musgrave and 40 to Kraft. When they are both healthy, they are both TE2 options.
There really should be more hype around year-2 Luke Musgrave.
The Packers WRs overshadow him a bit, but he’s essentially a WR himself. pic.twitter.com/YkMRVzhS5Z
— Jacob 🏈🍁🎃 (@NotionsOfJacob) July 30, 2024
Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton (WR, GB)
Similar to the situation with Dotson and Wilson, there are just so many other mouths to feed in Green Bay, and I don't see how Wicks and Melton can be priorities in fantasy lineups if they made your roster.
Wicks saw just 66 total targets last season and that was with Christian Watson missing eight games with injury. Wicks does have a healthy 2.07 yards per route run, but he was just 79th among all players in air yards last season.
Kirksey’s Friday Night Football Picks
Current Spread: PHI -2.5, Total: 48.5
For the Eagles to win this game on Friday, their defense has to be much better than it was at the end of 2023 when they completely fell apart under Matt Patricia. They allowed 6.2 yards per play in the final three games of the season, the fourth worst in the NFL.
Under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and a completely revamped coaching staff, I do believe there will be enough improvement to hold this game close to the under and not allow Jordan Love to feast as he did in the Dallas playoff game.
The Packers were bottom 10 in the NFL in 2023 with 345.4 yards allowed to opponents per game (and it was up to 352.7 in the last three weeks). I don't expect the Eagles to win by more than one score, but think the victory will be somewhere within 3-7 points. My gut prediction is the Eagles, 27-20.
The Pick: Eagles -2.5, Under 48.5
2024 Record: Spread (0-0), Over/Under (0-0) - It can only go downhill from here!
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