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When NFL players suffer injuries during the season, fantasy football managers are forced to keep an eye on them during the offseason to figure out how healthy they will be for the next season.
The wide receiver position is always important in fantasy football, especially with the way the NFL has transformed into a passing league. There were a lot of fantasy favorites at WR that suffered major injuries in 2022. Now fantasy managers must guess if these premium pass catchers will be back to their old scoring selves in 2023 or if they will be shells of their former selves.
What can fantasy football managers make of wide receivers coming off injuries from last year? Here is my take on what they can expect out of three receivers whose recent injury histories are well-documented:
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Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Kupp was the No. 1 WR on most fantasy football cheat sheets heading into the 2022 campaign after a 2021 season in which he racked up 1,947 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns. He was well on his way to having similar stats in 2022 with a 75-812-6 line during his first nine games, but a season-ending ankle injury forced his fantasy value to end up as low as a punter’s.
All signs point to Kupp being 100 percent by the start of the 2023 NFL campaign, so he will be slotted somewhere in the top five among fantasy receivers when experts release their cheat sheets. There has been no chatter about his ankle injury slowing him down this offseason. Kupp should hopefully not be a step slower, that’s the good news.
The bad news is the Rams around him might slow him down. Quarterback Matthew Stafford is returning from a scary spinal injury. If he does not regain his form and/or gets hurt again, Kupp’s fantasy productions plummets like a deep-sea diver. The Rams receiving corps will not prevent Kupp from being double-teamed, either. Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, and Tutu Atwell strike fear into no NFL secondary, so Kupp could get triple-teamed by opposing defenses.
Kupp will have another great year, barring injury, but he will not repeat what he did in 2021. 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns are more realistic goals with the supporting cast around him, and he needs to stay healthy to post those numbers.
Odell Beckham Jr., Baltimore Ravens
Last we saw Beckham Jr. on a football field, he was arguably the best player during the first half of Super Bowl LVI before he tore his ACL. He did not play a down or sign with a team in 2022, even though there were more rumors about where he was going to play than there are about Pete Davidson’s love life. The 30-year-old former top target finally signed with the Baltimore Ravens in April on a one-year deal that could be worth up to $18 million dollars if he hits all his incentive bonuses.
Lamar Jackson and Baltimore’s passing offense has not done any fantasy favors for wide receivers in recent years, though. There has been only one Ravens receiver (Marquise Brown in 2021) who has had a 1,000-yard year while Jackson has been under center, and Brown was the only WR over the past six seasons to top the 800-yard mark. The Ravens offense has been a run-first, pass-second scheme, especially since the multi-dimensional Jackson has become the starting signal caller.
Baltimore brought in veteran Nelson Agholor and drafted speedster Zay Flowers in the first round, so this is the best receiving corps Jackson has ever had to work with. The problem for OBJ is that he has to battle for targets with these other new additions plus Pro-Bowl tight end Mark Andrews, and there might only be 20-25 passes to split up if the Ravens get the ground game going again under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
Some people think the hiring of Monken will help improve the passing attack and increase Jackson’s pass attempts and numbers, but Monken loved utilizing two-tight-end formations and running the ball down defenses throats when he ran Georgia’s National Championship offense the past two years, so his system might be better fantasy-wise for talented tight ends Andrews and Isaiah Likely than Beckham Jr.
While this might be a great situation for OBJ to make another Super Bowl run, I do not think this is the best fit for his fantasy value. He should be the No. 1 WR, but there are too many cooks in the pass-catcher kitchen for him to have a 1,200-yard comeback season. If he stays healthy, I could see him supplying fantasy managers with 800-950 yards and a half-dozen touchdowns, but between his injury history and this offense, it is hard to project him doing more.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
Thomas has had more ankle problems the past few years than Dirk Nowitzki used to have when he was the Dallas Mavericks’ main man. He has now had three straight seasons ruined due to his balky ankle or his wonky toe and the countless surgeries and setbacks associated with them. Thomas used to be a dynasty league dream to have on a roster. Now he is someone a fantasy GM will take a late-round flier on and hope for an injury-free 1,000-yard year.
Thomas has a couple things going in his fantasy favor entering the new season. QB Derek Carr is a step up from Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, and Andy Dalton and should be able to deliver the ball to his top target as well as he was able to put his passes in Davonte Adams’ breadbasket last season in Las Vegas.
Thomas should also be helped by second-year phenom Chris Olave, whose sprinter speed should keep corners and safeties on their heels and back them away from the underneath routes Thomas likes to run. While Thomas probably will not catch 100 passes with Olave needing his targets, the injury-riddled veteran should be double-teamed less and find more open space in secondaries.
The biggest problem for Thomas is his brittle body. New Orleans head honcho Dennis Allen did not convince me that Thomas will be ready to roll Week 1 with his comments this week:
Fantasy managers know they cannot rely on Thomas to be ready in time for Week 1 after what he has put them through in recent seasons with his nagging injuries. If Thomas turns out to be A-OK and plays a full season, 80 receptions for 1,000 yards and eight scores is not out of the realm of possibility. However, there is no receiver with a wider risk-reward range in fantasy football than Thomas.
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