Coaching Matters: Offensive Outliers From Week 16

December 29, 2022

Eli analyzes players who overperformed and underperformed from last week to find potential Week 16 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data for the 2022 NFL season.

This is the sixteenth week of this series where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on past coaching trends in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 16, we saw stat lines such as the Carolina Panthers running back room combining for 293 rushing yards, the Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver room combining for 35 receiving yards, and the Minnesota Vikings' tight end room seeing 17 targets.

After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their playcalling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Kansas City Chiefs Wide Receivers

Andy Reid & Eric Bieniemy

The Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver room had a more mediocre game against the Seattle Seahawks as they combined for four receptions on 12 targets for 35 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. On the season, this group has now totaled 176 receptions (11.73 per game) on 268 targets (17.87 per game) for 2326 receiving yards (155.07 per game) and 13 receiving touchdowns (0.87 per game).

Sunday's performance was certainly disappointing, but the season averages are actually right in line with what we'd normally expect from an Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy wide receiver room. Given how the team has spread out the ball during the season, you should continue to leave the Chiefs wide receivers on your bench during the final weeks of fantasy football season.

Fantasy players this impacts: Kadarius Toney, Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Justin Watson 

New Orleans Saints Wide Receivers

Pete Carmichael

The New Orleans Saints pulled out the victory over the Cleveland Browns this past Sunday, but despite this their wide receiver room as a whole didn't put up very good numbers. In the game against the Browns, the Saints' wide receiver room combined for four receptions on seven targets for 41 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season, this group has totaled 163 receptions (10.86 per game) on 255 targets (17 per game) for 2293 receiving yards (152.87 per game) and 11 receiving touchdowns (0.73 per game).

These numbers are a bit lower than Pete Carmichael's career averages as an offensive coordinator, but that's somewhat to be expected since the team doesn't have Drew Brees at quarterback anymore. Expect better performances than this past Sunday, but unless Chris Olave or Michael Thomas is playing you shouldn't be starting any Saints wide receiver.

Fantasy players this impacts: Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Marquez Callaway, Jarvis Landry, Deonte Harty, Kevin White, Tre'Quan Smith

Decline Ahead?

As mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Minnesota Vikings Tight Ends

Kevin O'Connell & Wes Phillips

The Minnesota Vikings pulled out yet another one-score victory this week against the New York Giants, and the performance of the team's tight end room was a big reason they won. In this game against the Giants, the Vikings' tight end room combined for 14 receptions on 17 targets for 125 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. On the season, this group has totaled 96 receptions (6.4 per game) on 130 targets (8.67 per game) for 778 receiving yards (51.87 per game) and six receiving touchdowns (0.4 per game).

While T.J. Hockenson is the most talented tight end that Kevin O'Connell has coached, the current usage is quite a bit higher than what we'd normally expect from O'Connell's tight end room as a whole and it's unlikely that we see another performance like this past week for this group in the final two weeks of the season.

Fantasy players this impacts: T.J. Hockenson, Irv Smith Jr., Johnny Mundt, and Ben Ellefson

Carolina Panthers Running Backs

Ben McAdoo

Last week, the Carolina Panthers running back room landed on the 'Improvement Ahead?' part of this list after they disappointed against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This past week against the Detroit Lions was a completely different story, as they combined for 36 carries, 293 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, one reception, one target, 12 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 365 carries (24.33 per game), 1708 rushing yards (113.87 per game), 12 rushing touchdowns (0.8 per game), 60 receptions (four per game), 80 targets (5.33 per game), 525 receiving yards (35 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.07 per game) on the season.

This past Sunday was a strong game for the Carolina Panthers running backs, but the season averages are higher than what we'd normally expect from a Ben McAdoo-coached running back room. While D'Onta Foreman should be in the FLEX play conversation for the rest of the year, it's likely that the season averages dip a bit after their next two games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints.

Fantasy players this impacts: D'Onta Foreman, Chuba Hubbard, Raheem Blackshear, Spencer Brown

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