Coaching Matters: Offensive Outliers From Week 15

Eli analyzes players who overperformed and underperformed from last week to find potential Week 15 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data for the 2022 NFL season.

This is the fifteenth week of this series where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on past coaching trends in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 15, we saw stat lines such as the Carolina Panthers' running back room combining for 19 rushing yards, the Philadelphia Eagles tight end room seeing three targets, and the Minnesota Vikings wide receiver room combining for 321 receiving yards.

After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their playcalling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

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• Tight end (TE) rankings
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• FLEX rankings
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Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Carolina Panthers Running Backs

Ben McAdoo

The Carolina Panthers running back room disappointed against the Pittsburgh Steelers, as they combined for 14 carries, 19 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, three receptions, three targets, 57 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 329 carries (23.5 per game), 1415 rushing yards (101.07 per game), 10 rushing touchdowns (0.71 per game), 59 receptions (4.21 per game), 79 targets (5.64 per game), 513 receiving yards (36.64 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.07 per game) on the season.

This past Sunday was clearly a disappointing game for the Carolina Panthers running backs, but the season averages are in line with what we'd normally expect from a Ben McAdoo-coached running back room. D'Onta Foreman should still be in the FLEX play conversation for the rest of the year.

Fantasy players this impacts: D'Onta Foreman, Chuba Hubbard, Raheem Blackshear, Spencer Brown

Philadelphia Eagles Tight Ends

Nick Sirianni & Shane Steichen

In this past Sunday's win against the Chicago Bears, the Eagles tight end room combined for one reception on three targets for six receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. The Philadelphia Eagles tight end room has now combined for 59 receptions (4.21 per game) on 77 targets (5.5 per game) for 748 receiving yards (53.43 per game) and three receiving touchdowns (0.21 per game) on the year.

This performance, as well as the current season averages, are quite a bit lower than the career averages we've seen from head coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen over the course of their respective careers. Looking ahead, there's a strong chance of some bounce-back performances from this group - especially with Dallas Goedert coming off injured reserve.

Fantasy players this impacts: Dallas Goedert, Jack Stoll, Grant Calcaterra, Noah Togiai

Los Angeles Rams Wide Receivers

Sean McVay & Liam Coen

The Los Angeles Rams wide receiver room couldn't get anything going against the Green Bay Packers as they combined for five receptions on 11 targets for 49 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has now totaled 196 receptions (14 per game) on 298 targets (21.29 per game) for 2144 receiving yards (153.14 per game) and 13 receiving touchdowns (0.93 per game).

These numbers are a little lower than what we've come to expect from a Sean McVay wide receiver room. At the same time, it's hard to see them improving with Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson out. This group will bounce back next year, but you shouldn't consider starting any of the Rams wideouts in your fantasy league(s) this year for the rest of the season if you play in a 10-12 team league.

Fantasy players this impacts: Brandon Powell, Cooper Kupp, Tutu Atwell, Ben Skowronek, Allen Robinson, Van Jefferson, Austin Trammell, Jacob Harris, and Lance McCutcheon

Decline Ahead?

As mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Minnesota Vikings Wide Receivers

Kevin O'Connell & Wes Phillips

In one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history, the Minnesota Vikings came back from a 33-point deficit to beat the Indianapolis Colts this past Sunday, 39-36. In this victory, the Vikings' wide receiver room went off for 25 receptions on 39 targets for 321 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has compiled 230 receptions (16.43 per game) on 342 targets (24.43 per game) for 2881 receiving yards (205.79 per game) and 17 receiving touchdowns (1.21 per game).

The Vikings' wide receivers are performing quite a bit better than what we've typically seen from Kevin O'Connell's wide receiver room. But that should also be somewhat expected with the Vikings' strong wide receiver room led by Justin Jefferson. They won't put up 300+ receiving yards and three touchdowns every game, but this is one of the best-performing wide receiver rooms in the league and they should be capable fantasy plays for the rest of the season.

Fantasy players this impacts: Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn, Jalen Reagor

Denver Broncos Running Backs

Nathaniel Hackett & Justin Outten

The Denver Broncos pulled out the victory over the Arizona Cardinals this past week, winning the game 24-15. In this game, the Broncos running back room had a strong game combining for 31 carries, 169 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, five receptions, five targets, 38 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has now totaled 305 carries (21.79 per game), 1215 rushing yards (86.79 per game), seven rushing touchdowns (0.5 per game), 80 receptions (5.71 per game), 105 targets (7.5 per game), 584 receiving yards (41.71 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.07 per game).

When you look at the Broncos' season averages and compare them to Nathaniel Hackett's career running back room averages, it becomes clear that there's still some potential room for improvement for the Broncos' backs even after the strong game. Latavius Murray should be a strong play in the final weeks of the season against the Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City Chiefs, and Los Angeles Chargers.

Fantasy players this impacts: Latavius Murray, Javonte Williams, Mike Boone, Marlon Mack, Chase Edmonds, Devine Ozigbo

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