RADIO
Eli analyzes players who overperformed and underperformed from last week to find potential Week 1 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data for the 2022 NFL season.
This is the third year of this series where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on past coaching trends in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.
In Week 1, we saw stat lines such as the Washington Commanders' wide receiver room combining for four receiving touchdowns, the New Orleans Saints running backs combining for 13 carries, and the New York Jets running back room seeing 19 targets.
After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their playcalling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
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Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Los Angeles Rams Running Backs
Sean McVay & Liam Coen
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Rams | 21.82 | 91.59 | 0.53 | 3.12 | 4.47 | 18.47 | 0.24 |
| Sean McVay Prior (129 Games) | 22.27 | 96.43 | 0.77 | 3.88 | 5.29 | 34.78 | 0.22 |
| Rams RBs vs. Buffalo Bills | 16 | 47 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
The Los Angeles Rams running back room got off to a rough start in the 2022 season, combining for 16 carries, 47 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, five receptions, five targets, 26 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. This poor start seemed to be a combination of a bunch of different things: matching up against the Buffalo Bills – the best team in the league on paper, the Rams starters not playing in the preseason, and the running back room being a bit banged up.
Looking ahead to next week, we should expect this running back room as a whole to have a little better fantasy performance and get more usage against the Atlanta Falcons – giving you a better indication of how to value Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers the rest of the season.
Fantasy players this impacts: Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson, Kyren Williams
New Orleans Saints Running Backs
Pete Carmichael Jr.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Saints | 21.59 | 77.24 | 0.29 | 4.41 | 6.12 | 36.76 | 0.29 |
| Pete Carmichael Prior (209 Games) | 22.71 | 101.84 | 0.81 | 7.33 | 9.28 | 57.71 | 0.31 |
| Saints RBs vs. Atlanta Falcons | 13 | 61 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
The New Orleans Saints running back room was disappointing in Week 1, combining for 13 carries, 61 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, four receptions, five targets, eight receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. Given that Pete Carmichael Jr. has been a part of many running back-friendly offenses since he became the New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator in 2009, there's a good chance we see this group bounce back a bit in Week 2 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Fantasy players this impacts: Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram II, Dewayne Washington, Tony Jones Jr.
Baltimore Ravens Running Backs
Greg Roman
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Ravens | 18.88 | 79.35 | 0.82 | 3.18 | 4.12 | 20.47 | 0.06 |
| Greg Roman Prior (131 Games) | 23.16 | 104.51 | 0.81 | 2.48 | 3.45 | 19.76 | 0.10 |
| Ravens RBs vs. New York Jets | 15 | 46 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
Another running back room that got less usage than usual was Greg Roman's running back room in Baltimore. In Sunday's game against the New York Jets, the Ravens' tailbacks combined for 15 carries, 46 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, three receptions, three targets, 22 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. It's easy to understand why the team didn't utilize their backs a ton last week with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards out, and as those guys get healthy we should expect a lot more usage for the Ravens' backs on the ground.
Fantasy players this impacts: J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Mike Davis, Kenyan Drake
Jacksonville Jaguars Tight Ends
Doug Pederson & Press Taylor
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts | TE Rec. Yds | TE Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Jaguars | 4.35 | 6.41 | 44.12 | 0.12 |
| Doug Pederson Prior (128 Games) | 6.96 | 10.16 | 74.86 | 0.55 |
| Jaguars TEs vs. Washington Commanders | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
The Jacksonville Jaguars lost their season opener to the Washington Commanders this past Sunday 28-22. In this game, the team's tight end room caught four passes on four targets for 28 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. For most tight end rooms this would be pretty adequate usage, but for a Doug Pederson tight end room this was well below his career averages. While we shouldn't expect him to utilize a tight end room headlined by Evan Engram as much as he utilized his tight end rooms headlined by Zach Ertz or Travis Kelce, we should see at least a little more usage for this group in Week 2 against the Indianapolis Colts.
Fantasy players this impacts: Evan Engram & Dan Arnold
Decline Ahead?
As mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Washington Commanders Wide Receivers
Scott Turner
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Washington | 10.82 | 18.06 | 130.47 | 0.59 |
| Scott Turner Prior (37 Games) | 11.51 | 18.65 | 135.65 | 0.51 |
| Commanders WRs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | 13 | 22 | 153 | 4 |
The Washington Commanders wide receiver room had a fantastic game against the Jacksonville Jaguars where they had 13 receptions on 22 targets for 153 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns (in addition they combined for five carries and seven rushing yards on the ground). The usage (targets) overall was slightly above the averages we've seen from Scott Turner's wide receiver rooms over the past few years but the real surprise was the four receiving touchdowns.
In week 2 against the Detroit Lions, this group will likely fall back down to Earth – especially in the touchdowns department. Hopefully, you did not go overboard in your waiver wire bids for Jahan Dotson or Curtis Samuel since based on Turner's past tendencies at least one of them will not live up to the hype.
Fantasy players this impacts: Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, Terry McLaurin, Cam Sims
Kansas City Chiefs Running Backs
Andy Reid & Eric Bieniemy
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Chiefs | 19.18 | 81.94 | 0.71 | 5.12 | 6.41 | 46.65 | 0.29 |
| Andy Reid Prior (369 Games) | 19.93 | 87.18 | 0.64 | 4.95 | 6.73 | 42.83 | 0.28 |
| Eric Bieniemy Prior (65 Games) | 19.17 | 82.78 | 0.71 | 4.98 | 6.38 | 43.52 | 0.35 |
| Chiefs RBs vs. Arizona Cardinals | 23 | 126 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 59 | 2 |
The Kansas City Chiefs running back room had a great day in the 44-21 blowout of the Arizona Cardinals, as they combined for 23 carries, 126 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, six receptions, seven targets, 59 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns. These totals were quite a bit higher than Andy Reid (head coach) or Eric Bieniemy's (offensive coordinator) career averages for the position, which suggests that the 2022 season averages for this group will drop over the course of the season. If you can somehow manage to sell high on Clyde Edwards-Helaire after just one week, you should do it.
Fantasy players this impacts: Isiah Pacheco, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerick McKinnon
New York Jets Running Backs
Mike LaFleur
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Jets | 19.18 | 80.29 | 0.41 | 4.88 | 7.59 | 44.41 | 0.12 |
| Mike LaFleur Prior (17 Games) | 19.18 | 80.29 | 0.41 | 4.88 | 7.59 | 44.41 | 0.12 |
| Jets RBs vs. Baltimore Ravens | 16 | 83 | 0 | 13 | 19 | 78 | 0 |
The New York Jets running back room saw a lot of work in the loss to the Baltimore Ravens this past Sunday, as they combined for 16 carries, 83 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, 13 receptions, 19 targets, 78 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. The rushing workload for this group was slightly below what we saw from Mike LaFleur and the team's offense last year, but the receiving workload was well above last year's averages. It's unlikely that any running back room sees nearly 20 targets per game – even one with Joe Flacco checking down constantly – and it's extremely likely that we see this group get less work in Week 2 against the Cleveland Browns.
Fantasy players this impacts: Michael Carter, Breece Hall, Ty Johnson
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