RADIO
Not every NFL rookie will be good. Adjusting to the speed and physicality of the NFL is tough. Sometimes, it takes a player a little bit to adjust.
Take Trevor Lawrence, for instance. Bad coaching and a bad supporting cast meant that Lawrence threw an NFL-worst 17 interceptions last season. But with an offseason of growth, a new coach, and a handful of new targets for him, we all believe that Lawrence will be better this year, right?
The same can't be said for every second-year player. Below are three second-year quarterbacks who aren't in line for major improvement.
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Zach Wilson - New York Jets
The Jets took Zach Wilson with the No. 2 pick last year. It was a confusing pick at the time because Justin Fields just seemed obviously better than Wilson.
One year later, that decision still looks bad. Fields completed a higher percentage of his passes than Wilson. Fields threw fewer touchdowns, but also fewer interceptions. Fields had a higher ANY/A, and while he had fewer yards per game, some of that is due to play calling, as the Bears threw the 10th-fewest passes and the Jets threw the 13th-most.
Anyway, enough of my "Fields should have gone second" rant. Maybe someday I'll stop ranting about that.
When it comes to Zach Wilson, we're looking at a QB who started 13 games as a rookie and threw for just 2,334 yards with nine touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He completed 55.6% of his passes.
Among the rookie QBs to start double-digit games, Wilson had the lowest completion percentage, the second-lowest touchdown rate, and the second-highest interception rate.
The Jets spent a first-round pick on wide receiver Garrett Wilson, but it often takes a bit for rookie wideouts to get going. They also added tight end C.J. Uzomah in free agency.
But are those additions enough to help Wilson take a step forward?
Probably not. Per PlayerProfiler, Wilson was inaccurate despite throwing the kind of passes that you should be accurate at. He was 21st among QBs in air yards per attempt. Shorter passes are the kind of thing you should be completing, right? But instead, he was 27th in true completion percentage.
In fact, his deep ball was actually a kind of saving grace, as he was fifth in deep ball accuracy rating and 15th in deep ball completion percentage. And that...really just highlights how bad he was at throwing the ball in the short and medium passing game, which was bad. If Wilson was struggling with accuracy on his deep ball but was doing fine in the short/medium game, I'd feel better than when it's swapped around like this.
Mac Jones - New England Patriots
I was hesitant to include Jones on this list because he wasn't a bust last year. But here's something we need to remember when talking about fantasy sports: "bust" can mean different things.
In real life, Jones has shown that he can be a reliable game manager. You can win with game managers. Game managers can stick around the league for a long time.
But this is RotoBaller.com. RotoBaller is a fantasy sports website. We're not here to talk about how Mac Jones can lead the Patriots to the postseason. We're here to talk about fantasy football.
And when it comes to fantasy, I just don't see the upside with Jones. The Patriots threw the eighth-fewest pass attempts in the NFL last season, and while Jones completed a respectable 67.6% of his passes, which was eighth in the league, he was 17th in passing yards per game among qualifying quarterbacks.
Per PlayerProfiler, Jones suffered from accuracy issues in the red zone and on his deep ball. He actually threw deeper than people might expect, ranking 11th in air yards per attempt, but that didn't really convert to production in the way that you'd like. He can definitely improve on that, but the bigger issue is with his legs.
Running quarterbacks get more fantasy points than non-running quarterbacks because the formula for fantasy points per yard makes it easier to get those points on the ground.
Among quarterbacks, Jones was 28th in rushing attempts per game at 2.6 and 38th in red zone carries per game at 0.4. He finished with 7.6 rushing yards per game, 33rd in the NFL, and zero rushing scores.
With absolutely zero rushing upside, Jones has to make a major leap as a passer to have fantasy value. I know that the Patriots are talking like that might happen:
But how "dramatic" is Belichick talking? Unless he suddenly starts running, he has to become one of the league's best pure passers in order to have fantasy value. His ceiling is Matt Ryan, except in an offense that is very, very, very different than the offense that made Ryan succeed in Atlanta.
Davis Mills - Houston Texans
I'm a Texans fan, so I'm trying to be cautiously optimistic about Davis Mills as the Texans starter.
But when it comes to the actual stats that he'll put up, Mills just isn't in a position to succeed.
You can find a good number of people who say that Mills was the best non-Mac Jones rookie QB last year. But like Jones, Mills suffers from "doesn't-run-the-ball-itis," but to an even worse degree. Per PlayerProfiler, Mills ranked 51st among quarterbacks in rushing yards per game at 3.4.
THREE. POINT. FOUR.
If Jones offers no upside as a runner, Mills offers negative upside. He'll lose more points from fumbles than he'll gain from rushing yards.
So like Jones, Mills has to be uber-effective as a passer. But Jones had a higher completion percentage and touchdown rate than Mills last year, and while neither has a great supporting cast, Mills enters 2022 with one of the NFL's worst collections of talents around him. Sure, he has the reliable Brandin Cooks, but the other receivers/tight ends on this team are Nico Collins, Phillip Dorsett, Chris Conley, Brevin Jordan, and Pharaoh Brown.
Who is Mills throwing to?
He's essentially Mac Jones with less upside. I want Mills to be good in the NFL, but even if he is good, he's got such an incredibly low ceiling when it comes to fantasy. There's at least a little path to him being better than Jones due to the Garbage Time Production Inflation Metric, but even that might not matter.
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