5 Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakouts - Cheap Upside Picks for Drafts

March 20, 2025

Joey's starting pitcher (SP) fantasy baseball breakout candidates, five cheap upside draft sleepers for 2025. His favorite pitcher values in the later rounds.

Every season, multiple pitchers break out. Some of these pitchers go under the radar in drafts, while others become strong waiver wire pickups. When looking back at the 2024 season, pitchers like Paul Skenes, Spencer Schwellenbach, Jared Jones, and Shota Imanaga are just a few of the fantasy baseball breakouts from last year.

As we head into the 2025 campaign, several more starting pitchers will likely break out in the coming months. All of the potential fantasy baseball breakouts featured on this list are going outside the top 175 in fantasy drafts and could wind up being excellent value picks in the later rounds.

So, which five starting pitchers will break out this upcoming season? Let's dive in and find out.

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Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP: 178.7

Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Shane Baz has a great chance to break out this season. He is a former top-12 prospect and showed glimpses of his potential across his 14 starts last year. Baz had a 3.06 ERA and 69 strikeouts in 79 1/3 innings pitched. The right-hander also ended the 2024 season strongly by finishing with a 2.09 ERA and a .134 batting average across his final seven starts.

As a result, Baz is in a good spot to take his game to the next level in 2025. His expected ERA (3.62) and expected batting average (.219) both ranked pretty well last season, and the 25-year-old only issued four walks in the final four games of the 2024 campaign. If he can stay healthy, we are looking at a potential dominant season from the right-hander.

Shane Baz showed his upside today vs BAL:

6 IP 2 H 1 ER 3 BB 5 K
15 swing and misses

If he can have relatively good command we are looking at a future number 2 arm!
pic.twitter.com/nsl0EynadI

— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) September 7, 2024

Now, staying healthy has been a problem for Baz. He underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow in early 2022 before undergoing Tommy John surgery later that year. That forced him to miss the entire 2023 campaign. However, if those injuries are past him, he can be a sneaky fantasy option in 2025.

Fantasy managers also shouldn't worry too much about the Rays playing half of their games at the Yankees' spring training facility. Although Tropicana Field ranked 28th in ballpark factor on Baseball Savant last year, Tampa Bay's new home (George M. Steinbrenner Field) will have the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium. Yankee Stadium ranked 16th on last year's list, so it won't be much of a difference.

Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP: 213.7

One of these years, Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Taj Bradley will put it all together. Bradley is a former top-20 MLB prospect and has shown spurts of the type of pitcher he can be. However, the right-hander has not been a consistent pitcher in the majors just yet. That could finally happen in 2025, though.

Even though Bradley ended his sophomore season with a 6.35 ERA and 57 strikeouts across his final 11 starts, it's hard to ignore what he did during a nine-start stretch in the middle of the year. From June 8 to July 25, the Rays pitcher allowed just five runs in 55 innings pitched (0.82 ERA) to go with five wins and 65 strikeouts. He also struck out at least seven batters in six of those nine starts.

Remember that six week stretch in the middle of last season when Taj Bradley was one of the best pitchers in baseball?

6/8-7/25: 9 GS, 55 IP, 0.82 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 22.3% K-BB

Bradley could be a Top-25 SP if he can be more consistent.#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/b34D55DU2m

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) January 30, 2025

Those dominant stretches could be more of what we see from Bradley during the 2025 season. He touched 98 mph in his first spring action this year and has added a new cutter/slider to his arsenal. So, there is a chance that he will put it all together this year while becoming that consistent fantasy option that managers have been waiting for.

Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros

ADP: 210.7

Houston Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti is one of the best pitcher targets at this point in drafts because fantasy managers saw glimpses of a potential breakout late last season. Even though Arrighetti ended with a 4.53 ERA and 1.407 WHIP, his final two and a half months showcased some of his strongest outings of the year.

The right-hander had a 3.04 ERA, 85 strikeouts, and issued just 24 walks over his final 13 games (12 starts). During this span, he allowed two runs or fewer in eight of those 12 starts while carrying a 1.17 WHIP post the All-Star break. Therefore, Arrighetti can really build on that successful stretch heading into the 2025 season.

He also finished his rookie year with a 27.1% strikeout rate and a 27.7% whiff rate -- which are solid numbers for a rookie pitcher -- and struck out 171 batters. That means the upside is there for the 25-year-old to be an even better pitcher in 2025. As a result, don't sleep on Arrighetti in fantasy drafts this year. The right-hander certainly has the makings of a breakout candidate.

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

ADP: 238.3

One of the biggest reasons Cincinnati Reds pitcher Nick Lodolo has yet to break out is because of injuries. He made only 19 starts in 2022 due to a lower back strain, seven starts in 2023 due to a stress fracture in his left tibia, and only 21 starts last season due to multiple injuries. However, Lodolo has a compelling case to break out this upcoming season.

For starters, the left-hander said he is "in the best spot I've ever been coming into camp." While we don't know if this will necessarily help him avoid any injuries this season, it is certainly a great sign for Lodolo entering 2025. On top of that, he has the arm talent to take his game to the next level this year.

"It hasn't been easy" - Nick Lodolo has dealt with a lot of time on and off the IL the fast few seasons. When Lodolo is grooving, he has some of the best stuff in baseball. #Reds @WCPO pic.twitter.com/uI76hWOC3v

— Marshall Kramsky (@marshallkramsky) February 26, 2025

In his rookie campaign back in 2022, Lodolo struck out 11.4 batters per nine innings, which helped him rank in the 87th percentile in strikeout rate (29.7%). Even in 2023, his 28.3% strikeout rate across his seven starts ranked extremely well. That means as long as the southpaw can stay healthy in 2025, the potential is there for him to break out.

Jackson Jobe, Detroit Tigers

ADP: 262.7

Detroit Tigers pitcher Jackson Jobe will be an elite starter in the majors one day. Although Jobe didn't start any games for the Tigers last year, he did show what he is capable of on the mound in a relief role. The flame-throwing right-hander threw four scoreless innings with two strikeouts to end the regular season before struggling a bit in the postseason.

Still, Jobe showed a lot of encouraging things in his first taste of the big leagues and has the tools to be a breakout candidate in 2025. In the minors last year, MLB Pipeline's No. 5 overall prospect had a 2.36 ERA and 96 strikeouts across High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A while holding opposing hitters to just a .178 batting average.

Now, there are concerns with how many innings Jobe will be able to throw in 2025. He has yet to top 100 innings in any of his minor league seasons and will turn just 23 years old in July. So, expect the Tigers to really monitor his innings in his first full major league season. However, we can definitely see him make an immediate impact, and the debut of his new curveball could help him break out as a rookie. 

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