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Andy's mid-to-late round fantasy baseball sleepers, value picks and draft targets from the NL in 2025. These are upside hitters and pitchers and ADP values.
Hello, RotoBallers! In this article, we will analyze five players (one from each team) from the National League Central who are fantasy baseball sleepers and value picks at their current ADP in the mid-to-late rounds of drafts.
We will look at players who are typically being drafted in rounds 14 through 20 (draft picks are approximately 150-250). All ADP data is provided by NFBC from drafts from February through mid-March.
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Nico Hoerner, 2B, Chicago Cubs
ADP: 190
After enjoying a career season in 2023, Hoerner took a slight step back in 2024 but is severely undervalued in current drafts. In 2024, Hoerner logged 151 starts and posted a .273/.335/.373 slash line with 35 doubles, seven home runs, and 31 stolen bases. This was a slight decline from the .283/.346/.383 line with nine home runs and 42 stolen bases.
Under the hood, Hoerner showed an elite eye at the plate with a 10.3 percent strikeout, which gives him a substantial boost in points leagues. The 27-year-old generated a .280 xBA (91st percentile) and was placed in the 78th percentile in sprint speed.
The only reason why Hoerner is going late in drafts is due to his current elbow injury. However, recent reports have begun to suggest he may not miss much time, though he is slated to miss the team's opening series in Tokyo.
Batting in the leadoff spot in a lineup that will welcome Kyle Tucker could set up Hoerner for a career-high total in runs. He is a legit three-category star who is a great target if you choose to wait on second base. If he begins playing in spring training games, expect his ADP to skyrocket.
Ivan Herrera, C, St. Louis Cardinals
ADP: 221
Ivan Herrera logged a career-high in plate appearances last season and is poised for an even more significant role in 2025 as Willson Contreras will transition to a full-time first baseman. This leaves Herrera and Pedro Pages as the only backstops on the roster.
While reports have suggested Herrera and Pages may split time early in the season, expect Herrera's bat to earn him the majority of the starts. Across 72 contests last season, the 24-year-old posted a .301/.372/.428 line with 12 doubles, five home runs, and five stolen bases.
He generated an elite .366 xwOBA and a .293 xBA, which were among the highest marks in the sport. The backstop also showed a strong eye at the plate with a 9.7 percent walk rate and a 20.5 percent strikeout rate, which is also above the average marks.
In addition, compared to his 2023 production, Herrera lowered his ground-ball rate by 10 points (53.8 percent -- 43.8 percent) and raised his fly-ball rate by nearly an incredible 14 points (7.7 percent -- 21.3 percent).
Herrera is a high-upside No. 2 catcher to target in two-catcher formats and a strong backup catcher in standard formats.
Need batting average at your No. 2 catcher?
Ivan Herrera is your guy. (ADP: 245 @TheReal_NFC )
.301 AVG last year, .293 xBA, elite contact skills.
He is slated to be the everyday backstop in St. Louis
ATC projects 4th-best AVG (.266) at the position 👀 #FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/DmqMihenrm— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) February 3, 2025
Nick Lodolo, SP, Cincinnati Reds
ADP: 245
Despite battling numerous injuries last season, former top prospect Nick Lodolo enjoyed a career season. Through 115 1/3 innings, the southpaw posted a 4.76 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Even though he posted the lowest strikeout rate of his career (24.7 percent), his other metrics took a significant step forward.
The 27-year-old generated an 8.2 percent barrel rate and a 38.0 percent hard-hit rate, which were both the best of his career. He also generated a strong 3.72 xERA, which suggests he should see significant positive regression during the 2025 campaign.
Last summer, his fastball generated a .230 xBA, .382 xSLG, and a 23.0 percent whiff rate, which are all improvements compared to the .266 xBA, .474 xSLG, and a 19.0 percent whiff rate that pitch generated in 2023. An improved fastball can go a long way for a young pitcher as he continues to develop.
In addition, his second-most-used pitch, his curveball, also improved in 2024. This past season, it generated a .236 xSLG and a .233 xwOBA compared to the .372 xSLG and .281 xwOBA it generated the previous season.
Given the promising underlying metrics, Lodolo could be in store for a breakout season in 2025. More importantly, fantasy managers will not have to pay a hefty price tag, making it even more enticing.
Garrett Mitchell, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
ADP: 249
Former first-round selection Garrett Mitchell will represent the Milwaukee Brewers on this list. During his first two MLB seasons, Mitchell battled numerous injuries and only made a combined 47 starts, but he flashed elite upside, with a .278/.343/.452 line, five home runs, and nine stolen bases.
Last season, the UCLA product logged 69 games and posted a .255/.342/.469 slash line with eight long balls and 11 swiped bags.
Mitchell has elite speed, as he placed in the 95th percentile in sprint speed. He also showed a strong eye at the plate with an 11.2 percent walk rate, which was well above the average mark.
In addition, he also generated a career-best xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA, which is a great sign given the increase in playing opportunities he saw.
In addition, Mitchell improved his production in the batter's box in the second half of the season. After the Midsummer Classic, Mitchell held an impressive .265/.339/.488 line with seven home runs and 10 stolen bases.
With his elite 75.7 mph bat speed combined with top-tier speed, Mitchell carries a five-category upside and is poised for a breakout as he is set to see every day starts in center field.
Only three hitters had a bat speed > 75 mph (min 200 swings) and a sprint speed in the 90th percentile or higher...
Elly De La Cruz
Julio Rodriguez
Garrett Mitchell pic.twitter.com/HDrWD3P5DD— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) February 10, 2025
Jared Jones, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP: 151
Jared Jones made his MLB debut last season and flashed solid upside. Across 121 2/3 innings, Jones posted a 4.14 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP. He struck out batters at a strong 26.2 percent (73rd percentile) and tallied whiffs at a 30.2 percent rate (84th percentile). He generated a 4.05 xERA and a .234 xBA.
During the first half of the season, Jones was excellent with a 3.56 ERA and a strong 1.11 WHIP. Across these 91 innings, he tallied 98 punchouts and served up just 27 free passes. However, in the back half of the season, Jones held a hefty 5.87 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP.
Jones missed time in the second half due to a Grade 2 lat strain, which could have hindered his late-season production. However, he should not face any restrictions during spring training.
Jones relied heavily on two pitches, his fastball and slider, which he used 84.1 percent of the time. His fastball generated a solid .238 xBA and a 25.7 percent whiff rate. His slider was elite, generating a .206 xBA and a .324 xSLG with a 37.3 percent whiff rate.
His other pitches (curveball and changeup) were not very successful and will need to develop for him to take the next step. However, given how comfortable he looked during the first half of the season, the 23-year-old could be poised for a sophomore breakout.
Update (3/20): Jones is currently seeking a second opinion on soreness in his right elbow. Fantasy managers should not draft Jones until the team reveals more information about his injury.
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