X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

5 Bounce-Back Infield Candidates for Fantasy Baseball Drafts (2024)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Fantasy Baseball

Matt Garon gives five bounce-back infield candidates to draft for 2024 fantasy baseball. Which players could be in for a comeback in 2024?

Baseball is a game where a player can underperform for a day, month, year, or even longer and still eventually return to form. That’s just the nature of it.

But how do we separate the players who are likely to find their game again from those who have fallen off completely? Many signs can distinguish between these outcomes, and this article uses those signs to find five infielders who are good candidates to bounce back from a tough 2023 season.

These are five infielders who are being undervalued due to down seasons and should be targeted in drafts.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

Vladdy is always a polarizing player in fantasy for a variety of reasons. The former No. 1 prospect in the MLB has incredible upside that nearly no other player has, but other than a great 2021 season, he hasn’t been able to hone his potential. He has incredible underlying numbers and they scream bona fide stud, but his actual numbers aren’t quite at that level. So what should we make of this?

Well, parsing through the numbers and comparing the underlying numbers to the output is obviously important. When we do this year-over-year, this is what we find for Guerrero:

We see here that Vladdy’s underlying numbers took a hit in 2022 but bounced back in 2023. His fantasy output didn’t follow that trend, though, as he put up his worst season since before his breakout in 2021. It is reasonable to expect his wOBA to “catch up” to his xwOBA this year, which should significantly help his fantasy output. If this happens, a .280 AVG with 30 HRs, 100 RBI, and 90 runs is on the lower end of potential outcomes, and that would make him worth his ADP of 25.4.

We’ve seen the variance in the numbers Guerrero can provide. He’s been the best player in all of fantasy baseball, but he’s also been just a top-50 guy. Drafting him and expecting a repeat of 2021 is foolish, but he is not being drafted at a price that would expect that kind of result. Instead, he is going at a spot where marginal improvements on last year will make him a good pick, and anything more than that will make him a stud.

It is worth betting on the incredible raw talent Guerrero possesses and the regression of his fantasy output to better align with his underlying metrics, especially at an ADP we haven’t seen him fall to since before his breakout.

 

Manny Machado, San Diego Padres

There are plenty of surface-level facts that point toward Machado being past his prime and in decline. He’s about to enter his 13th season, so his best ball is likely behind him. His xwOBA has declined for three straight seasons, including a career-low .332 mark last year. He’s had his problems with injuries the last few years. But even with all these negatives, the time is now to bet on a bounce-back from Manny.

Although Machado has been around a while now, he’s only 31 going into this season, an age that may be past the primes of most players but is certainly nowhere close to the end for a player of his caliber. On top of that, he is finally coming into the year healthy after spending the previous two years managing pain in his right elbow. He got surgery done on it early in the offseason and is expected to be ready for Opening Day. There’s no guarantee that he can stay healthy, but showing up that way is a good start.

Maybe most worrisome to many is Machado’s declining performance. But when we take a broader look, we see some interesting patterns with him. Here are his fantasy numbers from the last six seasons:

While 2023 was his worst season in a while, we see some similarities with every other odd-numbered year. Does this mean he will only perform in even-numbered years while he slumps in odd-numbered years? No, of course not. But it does mean we should be buying Machado when he isn’t performing well because his track record shows that he bounces back from down years often.

With Machado going at an ADP of 52, the price has never been lower to buy in. And with Manny’s track record, the likeliest scenario is that he returns that value and then some.

 

Trevor Story, Boston Red Sox

It’s no secret that Story has had his share of injured list stints in the past few years, with his latest coming in 2023 when he required surgery on his right elbow. He wasn’t able to return until August, and when he did get back on the field, he was a shell of his former self, slashing just .203/.250/.316 with a paltry three home runs over 168 PA. Yet, there are plenty of reasons to bet on a bounce-back from the 31-year-old.

The former All-Star has had some bad injury luck that derailed his first two seasons in Boston, but that is exactly why a return to form isn’t out of the question. Story hasn’t had a normal offseason in over two years, and hasn’t had one with the Red Sox. Having the time to build up should help him to keep pace with the rest of the league instead of hopping right back into the thick of things halfway through the year.

In his last healthy season, he put up 24 homers and 20 stolen bases while providing decent RBI and runs for the Rockies. Those numbers don’t seem out of the question with a full season in Boston, which is a great park for right-handed hitters and has a much better lineup than the 2021 Rockies. On top of that, there is major stolen base upside with Story, who stole 10 bags last season in just a couple of months while not getting on base much. If he does return to form, he could steal a whole lot more than that.

Yes, Story is an injury risk. But at an ADP of 229, you aren’t going to find many guys with the power-speed combination he has. A top-100 outcome isn’t out of the question.

 

Willy Adames, Milwaukee Brewers

Although Adames wasn’t miserable in 2023, he certainly didn’t live up to expectations. We saw him break out in Milwaukee after being traded there midway through the 2021 season -- he mashed the ball for a year and a half, tallying 51 homers in 238 games, or 35 HR per 162 games. Unfortunately, it came crashing to earth last year as he popped just 24 homers with a paltry .217 AVG and diminished counting stats.

Despite a down year, the shortstop is primed to return to form in 2024. His wOBA of .311 was the worst of his career, but it was significantly lower than his xwOBA of .335, which was the highest mark of his career. Betting on these numbers to normalize to a middle ground is always a good gamble, and this regression would help Adames get back to who he has been.

When looking deeper into his underlying metrics, the problem for Adames is even clearer.

He just had no luck on heaters in 2023. The huge gap between his wOBA and xwOBA won’t happen again, and if he can get back to hitting fastballs well while keeping up his improvements on offspeed pitches, Adames could be even better than he has been in the past.

Given how hard he underperformed last year, a boost in every category isn’t out of the question. A .240 AVG, 80 R, 30 HR, 90 RBI, eight SB performance from someone being drafted 191st on average would be an absolute boon and isn’t difficult to see happening.

 

Josh Bell, Miami Marlins

There is no question that Bell’s tenure in Cleveland was an absolute disaster, as his .233/.318/.383 slash line with below-average power and counting stats was a major step back for the 31-year-old. He couldn’t find any consistency with the Guardians and it led to a pretty brutal season overall, but looking a little deeper into his splits reveals the potential for him to find his game again.

Bell was traded to the Marlins near the trade deadline, and he seemed suddenly rejuvenated by the new environment. His splits are jarring:

It could be the stadium, maybe it was a change of scenery, or even just variance, but Bell was clearly a better player in Miami. In this way, his bounce-back may have already started.

Expecting Bell to return to his 2019 numbers where he hit 37 homers with over 200 runs plus RBI is going overboard, but he doesn’t need to be that player. His run in Miami paces out similarly to his 2021 season in Washington when he hit .261 with 27 homers, 75 runs, and 88 RBI.

Hitting in the middle of Miami’s lineup should provide him with an opportunity to hit those counting stats again, and his homer binge in Miami should be sustainable. That kind of production would be a steal coming from a player with an ADP of 292.

There is a top-100 outcome in there for Bell, and after his late-season surge, it is worth betting on a return to fantasy-relevant territory for the slugger.

Those are my five favorite bounce-back infield targets. They are spread across the draft and vary in their top-end outcome, but they all have one thing in common; they are being undervalued in drafts because of a down year(s), but have the potential to get back to who they once were. Hopefully, this helps you get some value in your upcoming drafts!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Joe Burrow

Could Miss Three Months if he Requires Toe Surgery
Davante Adams

Headlines Rams Receiving Corps Sunday
Wan'Dale Robinson

Explodes for 142 Yards, Touchdown in Overtime Thriller
Joe Flacco

Browns Not Considering Benching Joe Flacco After Week 2
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Lamar Jackson

Throws for Four Touchdowns in Week 2 Win
James Cook

Scores Two Touchdowns in Rout of Jets
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Rome Odunze

Scores Twice in Loss
Ja'Marr Chase

Snags 14 Receptions, Finds End Zone in Week 2
Russell Wilson

Throws for 450 Yards, Three Touchdowns in Loss
Jared Goff

Throws Five Touchdowns
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Scores Three Touchdowns
Joe Burrow

Suffers Turf Toe and Torn Ligaments in Win
Malik Nabers

Explodes for Two Touchdowns in Overtime Thriller
Joe Burrow

Seen with Boot and Crutches Postgame
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Justin Fields

Diagnosed With Concussion Sunday
Tyrod Taylor

Justin Fields Evaluated for Concussion, Tyrod Taylor Enters Game
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
Max Muncy

Exits Early on Saturday
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Salvador Perez

Reaches 300 Home Runs, 1,000 RBI
Jose Altuve

Exits Early With Foot Discomfort
Trey Yesavage

Heading to Big Leagues
Will Smith

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
Ryan Preece

Seems Slower on Concrete Than on Asphalt
NASCAR

Legacy Motor Club's Short-Track Speed Will Likely Hold John H. Nemechek Back
Erik Jones

Definitely Faster This Year, but Short Tracks Still a Liability
Daniel Suarez

Despite Poor Qualifying Run, Daniel Suarez Might Not Be a Great Choice
Noah Gragson

Unlikely to Be Fast at Bristol but Still Might Be Worth Considering for DFS
Tarik Skubal

Avoids Serious Injury, Expected to Make Next Start
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
Tanner Bibee

Fans 10 in Two-Hit Shutout
Zach Neto

Dealing With Wrist Soreness
Masyn Winn

Shut Down for Rest of Season
Tarik Skubal

to Undergo Imaging on Saturday
Tyler Soderstrom

Scratched on Friday With Groin Tightness
Tarik Skubal

Exits with Side Tightness
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
Ketel Marte

Scratched From Friday's Lineup
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Kyle Tucker

"Unlikely" to Return When Eligible on Tuesday
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Alexander Hernandez

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Quang Le

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Card Opener
Santiago Luna

Set For His Debut At Noche UFC 3
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
Charles Oliveira

Not Eyeing Retirement
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley
Josh Giddey

Re-Signs With Bulls for Four Years
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Joins Informal Skate
William Eklund

Skates With Sharks
Owen Power

Back at 100 Percent
Tyler Seguin

Cleared for Action
Mathew Barzal

Good to Go for Season Opener
Dustin Wolf

Signs Seven-Year Extension
NBA

Mason Jones Takes His Talents to Australia
NBA

Talen Horton-Tucker Joins Reigning EuroLeague Champions
Malcolm Brogdon

on Knicks' Radar
Andrew Wiggins

Attracting Interest From Lakers

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP