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Matt Garon gives five bounce-back infield candidates to draft for 2024 fantasy baseball. Which players could be in for a comeback in 2024?
Baseball is a game where a player can underperform for a day, month, year, or even longer and still eventually return to form. That’s just the nature of it.
But how do we separate the players who are likely to find their game again from those who have fallen off completely? Many signs can distinguish between these outcomes, and this article uses those signs to find five infielders who are good candidates to bounce back from a tough 2023 season.
These are five infielders who are being undervalued due to down seasons and should be targeted in drafts.
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
Vladdy is always a polarizing player in fantasy for a variety of reasons. The former No. 1 prospect in the MLB has incredible upside that nearly no other player has, but other than a great 2021 season, he hasn’t been able to hone his potential. He has incredible underlying numbers and they scream bona fide stud, but his actual numbers aren’t quite at that level. So what should we make of this?
Well, parsing through the numbers and comparing the underlying numbers to the output is obviously important. When we do this year-over-year, this is what we find for Guerrero:
We see here that Vladdy’s underlying numbers took a hit in 2022 but bounced back in 2023. His fantasy output didn’t follow that trend, though, as he put up his worst season since before his breakout in 2021. It is reasonable to expect his wOBA to “catch up” to his xwOBA this year, which should significantly help his fantasy output. If this happens, a .280 AVG with 30 HRs, 100 RBI, and 90 runs is on the lower end of potential outcomes, and that would make him worth his ADP of 25.4.
We’ve seen the variance in the numbers Guerrero can provide. He’s been the best player in all of fantasy baseball, but he’s also been just a top-50 guy. Drafting him and expecting a repeat of 2021 is foolish, but he is not being drafted at a price that would expect that kind of result. Instead, he is going at a spot where marginal improvements on last year will make him a good pick, and anything more than that will make him a stud.
It is worth betting on the incredible raw talent Guerrero possesses and the regression of his fantasy output to better align with his underlying metrics, especially at an ADP we haven’t seen him fall to since before his breakout.
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
There are plenty of surface-level facts that point toward Machado being past his prime and in decline. He’s about to enter his 13th season, so his best ball is likely behind him. His xwOBA has declined for three straight seasons, including a career-low .332 mark last year. He’s had his problems with injuries the last few years. But even with all these negatives, the time is now to bet on a bounce-back from Manny.
Although Machado has been around a while now, he’s only 31 going into this season, an age that may be past the primes of most players but is certainly nowhere close to the end for a player of his caliber. On top of that, he is finally coming into the year healthy after spending the previous two years managing pain in his right elbow. He got surgery done on it early in the offseason and is expected to be ready for Opening Day. There’s no guarantee that he can stay healthy, but showing up that way is a good start.
Maybe most worrisome to many is Machado’s declining performance. But when we take a broader look, we see some interesting patterns with him. Here are his fantasy numbers from the last six seasons:
While 2023 was his worst season in a while, we see some similarities with every other odd-numbered year. Does this mean he will only perform in even-numbered years while he slumps in odd-numbered years? No, of course not. But it does mean we should be buying Machado when he isn’t performing well because his track record shows that he bounces back from down years often.
With Machado going at an ADP of 52, the price has never been lower to buy in. And with Manny’s track record, the likeliest scenario is that he returns that value and then some.
Trevor Story, Boston Red Sox
It’s no secret that Story has had his share of injured list stints in the past few years, with his latest coming in 2023 when he required surgery on his right elbow. He wasn’t able to return until August, and when he did get back on the field, he was a shell of his former self, slashing just .203/.250/.316 with a paltry three home runs over 168 PA. Yet, there are plenty of reasons to bet on a bounce-back from the 31-year-old.
The former All-Star has had some bad injury luck that derailed his first two seasons in Boston, but that is exactly why a return to form isn’t out of the question. Story hasn’t had a normal offseason in over two years, and hasn’t had one with the Red Sox. Having the time to build up should help him to keep pace with the rest of the league instead of hopping right back into the thick of things halfway through the year.
In his last healthy season, he put up 24 homers and 20 stolen bases while providing decent RBI and runs for the Rockies. Those numbers don’t seem out of the question with a full season in Boston, which is a great park for right-handed hitters and has a much better lineup than the 2021 Rockies. On top of that, there is major stolen base upside with Story, who stole 10 bags last season in just a couple of months while not getting on base much. If he does return to form, he could steal a whole lot more than that.
Yes, Story is an injury risk. But at an ADP of 229, you aren’t going to find many guys with the power-speed combination he has. A top-100 outcome isn’t out of the question.
Willy Adames, Milwaukee Brewers
Although Adames wasn’t miserable in 2023, he certainly didn’t live up to expectations. We saw him break out in Milwaukee after being traded there midway through the 2021 season -- he mashed the ball for a year and a half, tallying 51 homers in 238 games, or 35 HR per 162 games. Unfortunately, it came crashing to earth last year as he popped just 24 homers with a paltry .217 AVG and diminished counting stats.
Despite a down year, the shortstop is primed to return to form in 2024. His wOBA of .311 was the worst of his career, but it was significantly lower than his xwOBA of .335, which was the highest mark of his career. Betting on these numbers to normalize to a middle ground is always a good gamble, and this regression would help Adames get back to who he has been.
When looking deeper into his underlying metrics, the problem for Adames is even clearer.
He just had no luck on heaters in 2023. The huge gap between his wOBA and xwOBA won’t happen again, and if he can get back to hitting fastballs well while keeping up his improvements on offspeed pitches, Adames could be even better than he has been in the past.
Given how hard he underperformed last year, a boost in every category isn’t out of the question. A .240 AVG, 80 R, 30 HR, 90 RBI, eight SB performance from someone being drafted 191st on average would be an absolute boon and isn’t difficult to see happening.
Josh Bell, Miami Marlins
There is no question that Bell’s tenure in Cleveland was an absolute disaster, as his .233/.318/.383 slash line with below-average power and counting stats was a major step back for the 31-year-old. He couldn’t find any consistency with the Guardians and it led to a pretty brutal season overall, but looking a little deeper into his splits reveals the potential for him to find his game again.
Bell was traded to the Marlins near the trade deadline, and he seemed suddenly rejuvenated by the new environment. His splits are jarring:
It could be the stadium, maybe it was a change of scenery, or even just variance, but Bell was clearly a better player in Miami. In this way, his bounce-back may have already started.
Expecting Bell to return to his 2019 numbers where he hit 37 homers with over 200 runs plus RBI is going overboard, but he doesn’t need to be that player. His run in Miami paces out similarly to his 2021 season in Washington when he hit .261 with 27 homers, 75 runs, and 88 RBI.
Hitting in the middle of Miami’s lineup should provide him with an opportunity to hit those counting stats again, and his homer binge in Miami should be sustainable. That kind of production would be a steal coming from a player with an ADP of 292.
There is a top-100 outcome in there for Bell, and after his late-season surge, it is worth betting on a return to fantasy-relevant territory for the slugger.
Those are my five favorite bounce-back infield targets. They are spread across the draft and vary in their top-end outcome, but they all have one thing in common; they are being undervalued in drafts because of a down year(s), but have the potential to get back to who they once were. Hopefully, this helps you get some value in your upcoming drafts!
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