Spencer Aguiar's 2019 PPR RB Projections and Rankings (Part Two)

August 25, 2019

Spencer Aguiar's 2019 fantasy football projections for running backs (part two). He highlights his RB rankings with tiered analysis and projections for fantasy-relevant NFL running backs.

I've already projected this year's quarterbacks and the first four tiers of running back. Now, it's time to continue by looking at the rest of the most fantasy-relevant running backs on draft day. Listed below are my rankings and projections for the 2019 season, which will hopefully help you find some clarification if you are having any issues separating players into different ranks.

We will assume typical scoring of 0.10 points per rushing or receiving yard, six-point TDs, and full PPR. Please note that there may be minor discrepancies between the projections and rankings.

All players have been updated to account for injuries, holdouts, and any other circumstances that may affect their team's context or performance in 2019.

2019 Fantasy Football RB Rankings

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Tier 5

#19 - David Montgomery

Projected Fantasy Points: 202.88

David Montgomery has some obstacles he is going to have to overcome during his rookie season. Tarik Cohen isn't going away for the time being as the teams third-down back, and Mike Davis wasn't signed to a two-year, six million dollar contract to sit on the bench and never play.

The Bears drafted Montgomery knowing they were grabbing a potential three-down workhorse, but it seems obvious to me that the rookie is coming along quicker than Chicago had anticipated. The crowded backfield might limit his upside in 2019, but Montgomery has all the tools needed to be one of the next great backs in the NFL and is worth a shot in the middle of round four. I'm not sure he will make it that far with his soaring ADP, but if someone grabs him in round three or before, tip your hat and move on.

#20 - Sony Michel

Projected Fantasy Points: 211.29

Sony Michel finished his rookie season with 209 carries for 931 yards, scoring six touchdowns in 13 games. However, during the Patriots' Super Bowl run, Michel averaged 112 yards per game and scored six TDs. His lack of pass-catching ultimately diminishes his upside, but the second-year pro will be a focal point of New England's hard-nosed style.

Think LeGarrette Blount when you are trying to figure out Michel's ceiling. Blount rushed for 1,161 yards in 2016, scoring 18 touchdowns with seven receptions. That is the upside of what you are hoping to get here with Michel, but 12 scores and slightly over 1,200 yards sounds reasonable for him in year two.

#21 - Phillip Lindsay

Projected Fantasy Points: 200.78

Talks of a split between Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman have scared many owners away from the 25-year-old. Of the projected touches that Denver's big two backs would receive, I have given Lindsay slightly above 59% of them and Freeman 41% to get my projection for both.

Lindsay's stock will take more of a hit if those two numbers ever coincide, but 1,200 yards projected from scrimmage and seven touchdowns would be more than satisfactory to produce as a back-end RB2.

#22 - Derrius Guice

Projected Fantasy Points: 199.65

If you are chasing upside with your selection in this range, Derrius Guice is your man. The 22-year-old is in a similar position this season as he was last preseason, starting the offseason projected to be a top-50 pick in drafts, but the ACL injury that caused him to miss all of 2018 has caused his ADP to slide to beyond 70th.

I am under the assumption that Guice is going to begin the year EXTREMELY SLOWLY. That means if you weren't able to acquire him in your draft, Guice is a perfect target to secure for an owner that panic sells him off. If you do want to try and grab him in the draft, I'd prefer round seven but be patient and aware that things might not look great for the first few weeks.

#23 - Derrick Henry

Projected Fantasy Points: 198.98

Fantasy football is a weekly game, so a player earning nearly 60% of his season-long points in five weeks is less than ideal. However, Tennessee is in a position for Henry to increase his workload in 2019, and that should be enough to keep him close to an RB2 finish in all settings.

Henry finished last season ranked third in both attempts within the five-yard line and total touchdowns within the five, so while the Tennessee big man has never been my cup of tea from a fantasy perspective, he still has RB2 upside in the Titans' run-first system.

#24 - Marlon Mack

Projected Fantasy Points: 197.56

Marlon Mack is the primary early-down rusher for an upper-tier offense, but his lack of usage in the passing game isn't ideal for PPR settings. Most of his value will come from Andrew Luck's ability to orchestrate the offense and place the team in scoring situations, but with Luck entering the season questionable with an ankle injury, there is bust potential if Mack's touchdowns decline too far down the board.

I am not going to remove him from this tier because of those concerns, but I have not landed Mack in a single mock or real draft at the time of writing this article. I have too many players in this tier that I like above him, which means it is almost impossible for me to land him in many scenarios.

*** With Andrew Luck's retirement, I have downgraded his season-long projection to account for this move. 

#25 - Melvin Gordon

Projected Fantasy Points: 280.04

I have massive concerns that we don't see Melvin Gordon suit up this season for the Los Angeles Chargers. Maybe it just ends up being a few games, but the longer this situation lingers on for, the more serious it is for everyone involved.

It is difficult to completely revamp my projections because the length of Gordon's absence is unknown. Injuries are easier to project and adjust for on the fly, but this is a situation that might end up being all or nothing. The projection listed is obviously under the pretense that Gordon plays 16 games for the Chargers, but his ranking places him as my eighth pick of the fourth round.

If Gordon decides to pull a Le'Veon Bell and not play this season, I believe Justin Jackson will garner the majority of Gordon's rushing attempts, although it must be noted that Austin Ekeler will not only add a fair share to his total but also has standalone value with Gordon available. Jackson, on the other hand, either inherits around 150+ carries or is left with barely any.

When I select Gordon in this perceived range, I always jump a round or two earlier to make sure I also secure Jackson. There is a chance that Gordon gets traded and both men can have worth, but a fifth-round pick and a ninth is worth the risk for the production you would be expecting to receive given the questionable situation. Best case scenario: You spent a fifth and a ninth for a first-round talent in Gordon. Worst case: You end up with Jackson as a fifth-round value because Gordon never suits up this season. The latter of the two options wouldn't be the preferable outcome, but I believe it is worth the risk at that point in drafts.

Tier 6

Tier six and beyond will just include the season-long projections. All forecasts are updated to account for the current situation for each player and will be tiered off into sections. The players listed below are my top 48 in terms of projected fantasy points, but I'd make a conscious effort to avoid ADP in spots and reach for running backs like Darwin Thompson, Justice Hill and Tony Pollard over some names in this mix. We know what a RB like Jordan Howard will most likely provide you, but Thompson, Hill and Pollard could be league-winners if things click.

***Austin Ekeler's projection is not including missed time from Melvin Gordon, but his ranking is updated to account for some of the potential of that playing out.  If Gordon does miss the season, Ekeler would transform into a high-end RB2 for me. On the other hand, Justin Jackson's projection is if Gordon misses the year. Ekeler has standalone value in all scenarios, as where Jackson wouldn't be worth projecting if we didn't include what his upside would be in the best-case outcome for him.

#26 - Austin Ekeler

Projected Fantasy Points: 139.26

#27 - Mark Ingram

Projected Fantasy Points: 190.53

#28 - Duke Johnson

Projected Fantasy Points: 193.51

#29 - Tarik Cohen

Projected Fantasy Points: 191.91

#30 - James White

Projected Fantasy Points: 188.85

#31 - Tevin Coleman

Projected Fantasy Points: 186.31

Tier 7

#32 - Kenyan Drake

Projected Fantasy Points: 178.9

#33 - Miles Sanders

Projected Fantasy Points: 162.42

#34 - Dion Lewis

Projected Fantasy Points: 171.76

Tier 8 and The Rest

#35 - LeSean McCoy

Projected Fantasy Points: 156.65

#36 - Latavius Murray

Projected Fantasy Points: 137.61

#37 - Rashaad Penny

Projected Fantasy Points: 134.42

#38 - Matt Breida

Projected Fantasy Points: 136.55

#39 - Ronald Jones II

Projected Fantasy Points: 142.05

#40 - Jordan Howard

Projected Fantasy Points: 130.39

#41 - Kalen Ballage

Projected Fantasy Points: 126.14

#42 - Justin Jackson

Projected Fantasy Points: 158.03

#43 - Peyton Barber

Projected Fantasy Points: 116.26

#44 - Darrell Henderson

Projected Fantasy Points: 114.24

#45 - Royce Freeman

Projected Fantasy Points: 116.26

#46 - Ito Smith

Projected Fantasy Points: 129.36

#47 - Nyheim Hines

Projected Fantasy Points: 126.85

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