X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Spencer Aguiar's 2019 PPR RB Projections and Rankings (Part Two)

Spencer Aguiar's 2019 fantasy football projections for running backs (part two). He highlights his RB rankings with tiered analysis and projections for fantasy-relevant NFL running backs.

I've already projected this year's quarterbacks and the first four tiers of running back. Now, it's time to continue by looking at the rest of the most fantasy-relevant running backs on draft day. Listed below are my rankings and projections for the 2019 season, which will hopefully help you find some clarification if you are having any issues separating players into different ranks.

We will assume typical scoring of 0.10 points per rushing or receiving yard, six-point TDs, and full PPR. Please note that there may be minor discrepancies between the projections and rankings.

All players have been updated to account for injuries, holdouts, and any other circumstances that may affect their team's context or performance in 2019.

Editor's Note: Access RotoBaller’s trusted fantasy football rankings for PPR, Standard, Dynasty, Super Flex, and Best Ball formats. Get tiered cheat sheets, expert analysis, and player outlooks to dominate your draft from every angle.

2019 Fantasy Football RB Rankings

Be sure to also check out all of our fantasy football rankings, powered by our All-Star team of analysts, including Nick Mariano who has been a top-10 accuracy expert over the past two seasons.

Our Rankings Wizard is loaded up with rankings for PPR, Half-PPR, Standard, best-ball and dynasty formats - including rankings tiers, auction values and the latest player news and stats. Set your league size - then sort, filter and download your rankings. All in one easy place - and it's all free!

 

Tier 5

#19 - David Montgomery

Projected Fantasy Points: 202.88

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
228 4.4 1003.2 7 31 7.6 235.6 1

David Montgomery has some obstacles he is going to have to overcome during his rookie season. Tarik Cohen isn't going away for the time being as the teams third-down back, and Mike Davis wasn't signed to a two-year, six million dollar contract to sit on the bench and never play.

The Bears drafted Montgomery knowing they were grabbing a potential three-down workhorse, but it seems obvious to me that the rookie is coming along quicker than Chicago had anticipated. The crowded backfield might limit his upside in 2019, but Montgomery has all the tools needed to be one of the next great backs in the NFL and is worth a shot in the middle of round four. I'm not sure he will make it that far with his soaring ADP, but if someone grabs him in round three or before, tip your hat and move on.

 

#20 - Sony Michel

Projected Fantasy Points: 211.29

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
283 4.3 1216.9 12 10 7.6 76 0

Sony Michel finished his rookie season with 209 carries for 931 yards, scoring six touchdowns in 13 games. However, during the Patriots' Super Bowl run, Michel averaged 112 yards per game and scored six TDs. His lack of pass-catching ultimately diminishes his upside, but the second-year pro will be a focal point of New England's hard-nosed style.

Think LeGarrette Blount when you are trying to figure out Michel's ceiling. Blount rushed for 1,161 yards in 2016, scoring 18 touchdowns with seven receptions. That is the upside of what you are hoping to get here with Michel, but 12 scores and slightly over 1,200 yards sounds reasonable for him in year two.

 

#21 - Phillip Lindsay

Projected Fantasy Points: 200.78

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
204 4.7 958.8 6 37 7 259 1

Talks of a split between Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman have scared many owners away from the 25-year-old. Of the projected touches that Denver's big two backs would receive, I have given Lindsay slightly above 59% of them and Freeman 41% to get my projection for both.

Lindsay's stock will take more of a hit if those two numbers ever coincide, but 1,200 yards projected from scrimmage and seven touchdowns would be more than satisfactory to produce as a back-end RB2.

 

#22 - Derrius Guice

Projected Fantasy Points: 199.65

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
205 4.6 943 6 35 8.1 283.5 1

If you are chasing upside with your selection in this range, Derrius Guice is your man. The 22-year-old is in a similar position this season as he was last preseason, starting the offseason projected to be a top-50 pick in drafts, but the ACL injury that caused him to miss all of 2018 has caused his ADP to slide to beyond 70th.

I am under the assumption that Guice is going to begin the year EXTREMELY SLOWLY. That means if you weren't able to acquire him in your draft, Guice is a perfect target to secure for an owner that panic sells him off. If you do want to try and grab him in the draft, I'd prefer round seven but be patient and aware that things might not look great for the first few weeks.

 

#23 - Derrick Henry

Projected Fantasy Points: 198.98

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
262 4.3 1126.6 10 14 8.8 123.2 0

Fantasy football is a weekly game, so a player earning nearly 60% of his season-long points in five weeks is less than ideal. However, Tennessee is in a position for Henry to increase his workload in 2019, and that should be enough to keep him close to an RB2 finish in all settings.

Henry finished last season ranked third in both attempts within the five-yard line and total touchdowns within the five, so while the Tennessee big man has never been my cup of tea from a fantasy perspective, he still has RB2 upside in the Titans' run-first system.

 

#24 - Marlon Mack

Projected Fantasy Points: 197.56

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
257 4.4 1130.8 6 24 7.7 184.8 1

Marlon Mack is the primary early-down rusher for an upper-tier offense, but his lack of usage in the passing game isn't ideal for PPR settings. Most of his value will come from Andrew Luck's ability to orchestrate the offense and place the team in scoring situations, but with Luck entering the season questionable with an ankle injury, there is bust potential if Mack's touchdowns decline too far down the board.

I am not going to remove him from this tier because of those concerns, but I have not landed Mack in a single mock or real draft at the time of writing this article. I have too many players in this tier that I like above him, which means it is almost impossible for me to land him in many scenarios.

*** With Andrew Luck's retirement, I have downgraded his season-long projection to account for this move. 

 

#25 - Melvin Gordon

Projected Fantasy Points: 280.04

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
241 4.4 1060.4 7 60 9 540 3

I have massive concerns that we don't see Melvin Gordon suit up this season for the Los Angeles Chargers. Maybe it just ends up being a few games, but the longer this situation lingers on for, the more serious it is for everyone involved.

It is difficult to completely revamp my projections because the length of Gordon's absence is unknown. Injuries are easier to project and adjust for on the fly, but this is a situation that might end up being all or nothing. The projection listed is obviously under the pretense that Gordon plays 16 games for the Chargers, but his ranking places him as my eighth pick of the fourth round.

If Gordon decides to pull a Le'Veon Bell and not play this season, I believe Justin Jackson will garner the majority of Gordon's rushing attempts, although it must be noted that Austin Ekeler will not only add a fair share to his total but also has standalone value with Gordon available. Jackson, on the other hand, either inherits around 150+ carries or is left with barely any.

When I select Gordon in this perceived range, I always jump a round or two earlier to make sure I also secure Jackson. There is a chance that Gordon gets traded and both men can have worth, but a fifth-round pick and a ninth is worth the risk for the production you would be expecting to receive given the questionable situation. Best case scenario: You spent a fifth and a ninth for a first-round talent in Gordon. Worst case: You end up with Jackson as a fifth-round value because Gordon never suits up this season. The latter of the two options wouldn't be the preferable outcome, but I believe it is worth the risk at that point in drafts.

 

Tier 6

Tier six and beyond will just include the season-long projections. All forecasts are updated to account for the current situation for each player and will be tiered off into sections. The players listed below are my top 48 in terms of projected fantasy points, but I'd make a conscious effort to avoid ADP in spots and reach for running backs like Darwin Thompson, Justice Hill and Tony Pollard over some names in this mix. We know what a RB like Jordan Howard will most likely provide you, but Thompson, Hill and Pollard could be league-winners if things click.

***Austin Ekeler's projection is not including missed time from Melvin Gordon, but his ranking is updated to account for some of the potential of that playing out.  If Gordon does miss the season, Ekeler would transform into a high-end RB2 for me. On the other hand, Justin Jackson's projection is if Gordon misses the year. Ekeler has standalone value in all scenarios, as where Jackson wouldn't be worth projecting if we didn't include what his upside would be in the best-case outcome for him.

 

#26 - Austin Ekeler

Projected Fantasy Points: 139.26

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
90 4.7 423 2 38 9.2 349.6 2

 

#27 - Mark Ingram

Projected Fantasy Points: 190.53

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
199 4.7 935.3 7 28 7.5 210 1

 

#28 - Duke Johnson

Projected Fantasy Points: 193.51

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
147 4.2 617.4 4 47 9.1 427.7 3

 


#29 - Tarik Cohen

Projected Fantasy Points: 191.91

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
87 4.5 391.5 2 62 9.8 607.6 3

 

#30 - James White

Projected Fantasy Points: 188.85

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
57 4.3 245.1 2 69 8.6 593.4 4

 

#31 - Tevin Coleman

Projected Fantasy Points: 186.31

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
185 4.6 851 5 31 9.1 282.1 2

 

Tier 7

#32 - Kenyan Drake

Projected Fantasy Points: 178.9

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
122 4.5 549 3 50 8.8 440 2

 

#33 - Miles Sanders

Projected Fantasy Points: 162.42

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
161 4.2 676.2 4 36 8 288 1

 

#34 - Dion Lewis

Projected Fantasy Points: 171.76

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
115 4 460 1 56 7.1 397.6 4

 

Tier 8 and The Rest

#35 - LeSean McCoy

Projected Fantasy Points: 156.65

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
161 4 644 3 39 7.5 292.5 1

 

#36 - Latavius Murray

Projected Fantasy Points: 137.61

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
126 4.4 554.4 5 27 7.1 191.7 1

 

#37 - Rashaad Penny

Projected Fantasy Points: 134.42

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
149 4.7 700.3 4 19 8.1 153.9 1

 

#38 - Matt Breida

Projected Fantasy Points: 136.55

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
121 4.7 568.7 4 27 8.4 226.8 1

 

#39 - Ronald Jones II

Projected Fantasy Points: 142.05

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
117 4.1 479.7 4 36 7.8 280.8 1

 

#40 - Jordan Howard

Projected Fantasy Points: 130.39

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
167 4.1 684.7 6 16 6.2 99.2 0

 

#41 - Kalen Ballage

Projected Fantasy Points: 126.14

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
151 4.2 634.2 4 22 7.6 167.2 0

 

#42 - Justin Jackson

Projected Fantasy Points: 158.03

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
157 4.1 643.7 5 31 8.6 266.6 1

 

#43 - Peyton Barber

Projected Fantasy Points: 116.26

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
137 3.8 520.6 5 20 7.1 142 0

 

#44 - Darrell Henderson

Projected Fantasy Points: 114.24

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
87 4.6 400.2 3 27 8.6 232.2 1

 

#45 - Royce Freeman

Projected Fantasy Points: 116.26

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
137 4.1 561.7 5 17 7.7 130.9 0

 

#46 - Ito Smith

Projected Fantasy Points: 129.36

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
107 4.1 438.7 4 31 7.9 244.9 1

 


#47 - Nyheim Hines

Projected Fantasy Points: 126.85

Attempts Average Yards Touchdowns Receptions Average Yards Touchdowns
58 4.2 243.6 2 47 6.7 314.9 2

More Fantasy Football Analysis


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Demarcus Robinson

Sentenced to Three Years of Probation
Jalen Nailor

In Line for WR3 Role in Minnesota
Andrew Thomas

Could Miss Start of 2025 Season
Alex Bregman

Expected to Return on Friday
Julio Rodríguez

Julio Rodriguez Won't Suit Up for Midsummer Classic
Trey Smith

Chiefs, Trey Smith Expected to Work Out Long-Term Extension
Bernhard Raimann

a Candidate for an Extension This Summer
C.J. Stroud

Could Sign Multi-Year Deal Before 2026 Season
Kyle Juszczyk

Says Christian McCaffrey Looks Healthy, Explosive
Kyren Williams

Showing Improved Explosiveness
Christian Barmore

"Dominant" this Spring
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF