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2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft Values: Corey Dickerson


By Keith Allison on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr as "Corey Dickerson") [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

With the recent trade from the Colorado Rockies to the Tampa Bay Rays, Corey Dickerson’s opportunity for more playing time has drastically improved. Unlike his tenure with the Rockies, Dickerson’s position as an everyday outfielder is his to lose. Tampa Bay will likely look to use Dickerson as their everyday left fielder. Dickerson’s last season was plagued by injuries. Now healthy, and plenty of opportunity for at-bats (AB), fantasy owners should expect a high return on their investment this year.

Editor's note: Be sure to check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings tool, which is already loaded up with lots of great articles. Aside from staff rankings and ADP analysis across all positions, we also dig into MLB prospect rankings, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well.

 

2014-15 In Review

Dickerson’s ISO (isolated power) over the last two seasons is well above .230. In those 712 plate appearances (PA), he exploded for 34 HR and 107 RBI with a slugging percentage (SLG) above .540. Combined with his 19.0% HR/FB ratio, Dickerson has proven that he can be a power slugger.

Another testament to his hitting abilities is how hard he hits the ball. During his career, he has produced a 45.7% Med% and 38.1% Hard% on balls in play. Med% is the percentage of balls in play that were classified as hit with medium speed and Hard% is similarly hit at hard speed. Also, Dickerson has shown an ability to hit to all parts of the field, as evidenced by his 2014 spray chart below, courtesy of fangraphs.com:

chartNot everything looked favorable for Dickerson last year. He experienced a sharp decline in his walk-to-strikeout (BB/K) ratio, from .39 and .37 in his first two major league years to .18 last year. He also has been flirting with an unusually inflated BABIP (batting average on balls in play) for the last two years. At .356 and .367, I don’t expect his BABIP to hold that high. I expect both his BABIP, and consequently his average (AVG), to sink below where they have been the past two seasons.

Another ominous sign is Dickerson’s career versus left-handed pitching. His career AVG versus left handed pitching is 67 points below his career versus right-handers. Even worse, his SLG is a full 200 points lower and his ISO is 133 points lower against southpaw’s verse righties.

2016 Outlook

He will also have to bring a little extra this year. He no longer will be in the hitter friendly confines of Coors Field. However, the right field porch in Tropicana is significantly shorter than Coors. The right field line measures at 322 feet in Tropicana verse 350 in Coors. Right-center is similar, with measurements of 370 to 375 feet. 17 of Dickerson’s 24 HR in 2014 were hit in that range. Therefore, his HR production might not drop as much as thought at first glance.

In 2014, Dickerson finished tied for 28th in HR (24), 46th in RBI (76), 53rd in R (74), and 18th in AVG (.312). His wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) for the past two seasons were 140 and 119, respectively. Dickerson was ranked 97th overall and the 26th best outfielder in ESPN’s latest ranking update, January 28th. If that placement holds, Dickerson would be a steal in the mid rounds of the draft.

 

Conclusion

Overall, if Dickerson can continue his level of production in Tampa that we saw in Colorado, he will bring a high level of production from around the century mark of the draft. Just don’t wait too long.

 

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