Projecting Where Wide Receiver Emmanuel Sanders Finishes in 2015

Don’t expect Emmanuel Sanders to have a repeat performance in 2015 despite his highly enjoyable career year last season. Sanders racked up over 100 receptions (5th in NFL) for 1,404 yards (5th in NFL) and nine touchdowns, all career highs. Those touchdowns came in bunches which would be a difficult feat to repeat. In a five-week span, Sanders caught seven touchdowns including a three-touchdown performance against San Diego. There were 11 games when Sanders did not record a touchdown reception.

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With tight end Julius Thomas moving on to the Jacksonville Jaguars, defenses will be able to focus on Sanders. The threat in the middle of the field won't be as high to opposing defenses with Owen Daniels, Virgil Green and James Casey filling the void.

The combination of an aging Peyton Manning (everyone remembers the AFC Divisional Round against the Colts) and new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak will lead to a less pass-happy Broncos offense. The days of Sanders having high targets days (double-digits four times in 2014, 7+ targets eight times) will be limited, as Kubiak has already begun hinting that they will run the ball more than previous seasons. Sanders was as entertaining as any wide receiver last season but expecting that high level of production again is a mistake.

Although that last paragraph sounds overly negative, Sanders isn’t going to completely fall off the map. Before going to the Broncos, Kubiak was the offensive coordinator of the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens were seven targets short of having two wide receivers with 100 each, as Steve Smith Sr. had 133 targets and Torrey Smith had 93. The Broncos are similarly set up with the same tight end in Owens alongside wide receivers with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.

The question boils down to this: Is Sanders is going to be a top-10 wide receiver in 2015?

Odds are, yes he will. But will he end up in the top-five like 2014? Unlikely.

Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Jordy Nelson and Dez Bryant are the clear-cut four wide receivers that finished ahead of Sanders and common sense says they will again.

Sanders and Odell Beckham Jr. flip-flop at fifth and sixth depending on if you’re using ESPN or Yahoo. Here’s the reminder that Beckham Jr. missed four games last season and that nobody is selecting Sanders before Beckham Jr. in this year’s drafts.

Then there’s Calvin Johnson. Johnson missed three games last season and caught 71 passes with eight touchdowns (one less than Sanders). Sanders caught more than six touchdowns for the first time in his career, while Johnson has had four seasons of double-digit touchdowns. The Denver wide receiver had a great season, but it’s more than likely that Johnson duplicates his type of success than Sanders, who still has to prove he isn’t a one-hit wonder.

Next is Julio Jones. He falls into the eye test category. If the clock is running for a draft selection and the two wide receivers on the board are Jones and Sanders, how many people are selecting Sanders? Jones had three more receptions than Sanders last season in one less game played. I’m putting my money on Jones outperforming Sanders this season if I was forced to make a decision between the two.

It’s not a knock against Sanders to be excluded from a group involving Brown, Thomas, Nelson, Bryant, Beckham Jr., Johnson and Jones. But here is where the discussion begins, seven wide receivers deep.

The next slew of wide receivers include Randall Cobb, Jeremy Maclin, Alshon Jeffrey, T.Y. Hilton, Mike Evans, Golden Tate and Kelvin Benjamin. And for me at least, it’s all about offensive systems.

The easiest to knock off this list is Maclin. It’s hard to imagine he’ll replicate his line of 143 targets, 85 receptions, and 10 touchdowns going from Chip Kelly’s offense to the Jamaal Charles-led attack of the Chiefs. Next is Mike Evans, who will have to prove that his 12-touchdown rookie year can be duplicated with rookie quarterback Jameis Winston now under center. Golden Tate is also in the regression category for me, as defenses will show him more respect from his terrific 2014 season. Along with respect, Johnson missed three games last season and was used as a decoy for two of the 13 he played in. If Johnson plays 15 or 16 games at full health, I’m not sure Tate will receive top-10 targets again

That leaves Cobb, Hilton, Jeffrey and Benjamin. As simple as it sounds, I’m nixing Jeffrey and Benjamin because of their quarterbacks. Give me the options of Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers over Cam Newton and Jay Cutler. Sometimes the decision making is that simple.

Sanders, Cobb, and Hilton round out the 8^th, 9^th and 10^th best wide receivers for 2015. If I had to pick an order, Cobb finishes ahead of both Hilton and Sanders. With the offensive mindset changing in Denver, I’m giving the edge to Aaron Rodgers' second wide receiver over Peyton Manning’s.

Final Projection: 8^th-10^th best fantasy wide receiver in 2015.

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