Week 9 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions

1 year ago by Ben Rolfe

It is a really tough week with six teams on a bye. Fantasy rosters will be stretched and owners will be desperately looking for options who can give them solid production. It may not be the most amazing upside in the world but when every team is hurting a solid six or seven points from a reliable contributor can be what you need to win a game. As always my recommendation is to try and balance the consistency with the ceiling. If a slightly less consistent player with a slightly higher ceiling has a good matchup this week then be brave. However, if those high ceiling guys have tough matchups and they are unreliable it might be time to find them a spot on your bench this week.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following week's waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of those players below.

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Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Patrick Mahomes	216.94	27.12	6.78	20.34	33.9	0.25	135.56
2	Cam Newton	164.74	23.53	5.12	18.42	28.65	0.22	131.76
3	Carson Wentz	128.42	21.4	4.24	17.16	25.65	0.2	129.4
4	Philip Rivers	142.22	20.32	4.06	16.26	24.37	0.2	122.1
5	Alex Smith	106.14	15.16	2.61	12.55	17.77	0.17	103.2
6	Aaron Rodgers	152.92	21.85	6.14	15.71	27.99	0.28	99.56
7	Kirk Cousins	170.64	21.33	6.69	14.64	28.02	0.31	89.35
8	Russell Wilson	125.94	17.99	4.76	13.23	22.75	0.26	85.98
9	Matt Ryan	168.06	24.01	9.51	14.5	33.51	0.4	84.65
10	Andrew Luck	169.78	21.22	7.27	13.96	28.49	0.34	83.21
11	Tom Brady	152.9	19.11	6.19	12.93	25.3	0.32	78.16
12	Matthew Stafford	124.78	17.83	5.65	12.18	23.47	0.32	74.11
13	Ben Roethlisberger	144	20.57	8.33	12.24	28.9	0.4	71.38
14	Joe Flacco	130.86	16.36	5.15	11.2	21.51	0.32	68.27
15	Mitch Trubisky	162.16	23.17	12.03	11.13	35.2	0.52	67.76
16	Andy Dalton	140.18	17.52	6.19	11.33	23.72	0.35	67.09
17	Deshaun Watson	162.04	20.26	9.03	11.23	29.28	0.45	65.7
18	Jared Goff	161.2	20.15	9.61	10.54	29.76	0.48	62.39
19	Ryan Fitzpatrick	118	23.6	14.59	9.01	38.19	0.62	61.78
20	Eli Manning	116.98	14.62	4.77	9.85	19.39	0.33	59.43
21	Baker Mayfield	87.94	14.66	4.9	9.75	19.56	0.33	58.47
22	CJ Beathard	80.98	16.2	6.25	9.94	22.45	0.39	58.15
23	Drew Brees	146.5	20.93	12.05	8.87	32.98	0.58	57.27
24	Jimmy Garoppolo	46.02	15.34	5.76	9.58	21.1	0.38	56.19
25	Dak Prescott	116.28	16.61	7.94	8.68	24.55	0.48	51.38
26	Blake Bortles	136.98	17.12	9.22	7.9	26.34	0.54	48.92
27	Sam Darnold	104.3	13.04	4.84	8.2	17.88	0.37	48.16
28	Case Keenum	113.9	14.24	6	8.23	20.24	0.42	48
29	Derek Carr	114.68	16.38	8.97	7.41	25.36	0.55	46.29
30	Jameis Winston	68.34	17.09	11.49	5.6	28.57	0.67	42.49

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through three games from largest to smallest. Ryan Fitzpatrick is back in our lives! The Buccaneers decision to bench Fitzpatrick made some sense. They need to know what they have in Jameis Winston. However, from a fantasy point of view, it was someone what of a nightmare. Right now Fitzpatrick has a much higher fantasy ceiling that Winston and he should be on the cusp of a must-start option in most leagues this week.

Alex Smith remains the surprise in the top-10 here. Smith is wonderfully consistent as a fantasy option but in shallow leagues, his ceiling of 17.77 is concerning. This weak he is playing a Falcons defense who have had their problems. If he was going to be a starting option in any one quarterback 10- or 12-team leagues this would be the week. Even then I still cannot pull the trigger on him really.

Trubisky is a name to avoid this week if possible. The Bills have had success against quarterbacks, even making Tom Brady work hard and I think they can succeed against Trubisky. I would also avoid Watson this week in Denver especially given the limited time he has had with Demaryius Thomas. However, both Jared Goff and Drew Brees are must-starts in what should be a shoot-out in the New Orleans.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Todd Gurley	237.1	29.64	4.32	25.32	33.95	0.15	233.15
2	Saquon Barkley	202.6	25.33	5.82	19.51	31.14	0.23	135.57
3	Melvin Gordon	158.5	26.42	6.6	19.82	33.02	0.25	132.14
4	Christian McCaffrey	134.3	19.19	5.16	14.03	24.34	0.27	90.56
5	James White	171.3	21.41	7.54	13.87	28.95	0.35	82.2
6	James Conner	177.2	25.31	12.12	13.2	37.43	0.48	78.21
7	Alvin Kamara	181.1	25.87	13.52	12.35	39.4	0.52	75.36
8	Ezekiel Elliott	132.4	18.91	7.33	11.58	26.25	0.39	67.69
9	Joe Mixon	113.4	18.9	7.9	11	26.8	0.42	64.13
10	TJ Yeldon	137	17.13	6.26	10.87	23.38	0.37	64
11	Kareem Hunt	166.4	20.8	10.24	10.56	31.04	0.49	63.05
12	David Johnson	120.2	15.03	5.04	9.98	20.07	0.34	59.8
13	Alex Collins	96.9	12.11	3.65	8.46	15.76	0.3	52.33
14	Kerryon Johnson	90.4	12.91	4.37	8.54	17.29	0.34	51.04
15	Tevin Coleman	83.7	11.96	3.88	8.08	15.83	0.32	48.85
16	Marshawn Lynch	79	13.17	4.92	8.24	18.09	0.37	48.39
17	Phillip Lindsay	108.7	13.59	5.65	7.94	19.23	0.42	46.29
18	Austin Ekeler	92.8	13.26	5.33	7.93	18.59	0.4	46.24
19	Tarik Cohen	120.2	17.17	10.52	6.65	27.7	0.61	45.19
20	Marlon Mack	74.7	18.68	13.19	5.48	31.87	0.71	45.11
21	Adrian Peterson	113.8	16.26	9.19	7.07	25.45	0.57	45.01
22	Devonta Freeman	14.1	7.05	1.34	5.71	8.39	0.19	44.04
23	Lamar Miller	89.2	12.74	5.5	7.24	18.25	0.43	42.25
24	Justin Jackson	4.6	2.3	0.14	2.16	2.44	0.06	39.71
25	Kenyan Drake	114.7	14.34	8.94	5.4	23.28	0.62	37.33
26	Mark Ingram	39.7	13.23	7.6	5.63	20.84	0.57	36.27
27	Javorius Allen	88.8	11.1	4.9	6.2	16	0.44	36.25
28	Jordan Howard	76.9	10.99	4.98	6	15.97	0.45	35.22
29	Ito Smith	51.3	8.55	2.94	5.61	11.49	0.34	33.39
30	Chris Carson	73.7	12.28	7.4	4.88	19.69	0.6	32.66
31	Giovani Bernard	55.3	13.83	10.74	3.09	24.56	0.78	31.63
32	Jay Ajayi	43.4	10.85	5.69	5.16	16.54	0.52	31.55
33	Nyheim Hines	95.5	11.94	7.44	4.5	19.38	0.62	31.09
34	Sony Michel	73.3	12.22	7.95	4.26	20.17	0.65	30.98
35	Jalen Richard	73.9	10.56	5.5	5.06	16.05	0.52	30.83
36	Chris Thompson	66.2	13.24	10.12	3.12	23.36	0.76	30.56
37	Dion Lewis	82.6	11.8	7.79	4.01	19.59	0.66	29.67
38	Royce Freeman	61	8.71	3.64	5.07	12.36	0.42	29.56
39	Wendell Smallwood	73	10.43	5.7	4.73	16.13	0.55	29.51
40	Carlos Hyde	78.2	11.17	7.66	3.52	18.83	0.69	27.47
41	Carlos Hyde	78.2	11.17	7.66	3.52	18.83	0.69	27.47
42	Isaiah Crowell	98.6	12.33	10.17	2.16	22.49	0.83	27.26
43	Aaron Jones	49.5	9.9	5.66	4.24	15.56	0.57	27.21
44	Matt Breida	86.7	10.84	7.31	3.53	18.14	0.67	26.91
45	Latavius Murray	91.2	11.4	8.92	2.48	20.32	0.78	25.97
46	Theo Riddick	39.8	7.96	3.54	4.42	11.5	0.44	25.87
47	Bilal Powell	62.3	8.9	4.93	3.97	13.83	0.55	24.97
48	Dalvin Cook	29.5	9.83	7.01	2.83	16.84	0.71	23.64
49	LeSean McCoy	61.4	8.77	5.63	3.14	14.41	0.64	22.43
50	Jamaal Williams	43	6.14	2.34	3.8	8.49	0.38	22.24

Once again this week the player in the top-15 I am staying well away from is Tevin Coleman. He has been maddeningly inconsistent and relied on the big play too much. The Redskins have a good defense that I think he struggles against. Alex Collins is a name to watch on the injury report this week. If active he could have a nice day at home against the Steelers.

Marlon Mack has become a monster and is someone you should not hesitate to start going forward. With the Colts on a bye I would absolutely look to trade for him if his owner needs an option this week.

Drake, Howard, and Carson will continue to be head scratchers in their situations. Surprisingly of the three, the one I like the most going forward is Carson. Dion Lewis looked like he had crept ahead of Derrick Henry in the Titans last game before their trip to London. I am interested to see whether that continues this week coming out of the bye.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Adam Thielen	205	25.63	4.48	21.14	30.11	0.17	172.08
2	Antonio Brown	149.2	21.31	4.81	16.51	26.12	0.23	115.79
3	Julian Edelman	67.1	16.78	3.32	13.45	20.1	0.2	101.43
4	DeAndre Hopkins	172.2	21.53	6.25	15.27	27.78	0.29	95.65
5	Davante Adams	157	22.43	6.98	15.45	29.41	0.31	94.5
6	AJ Green	156.7	19.59	5.98	13.61	25.56	0.31	83.77
7	Mike Evans	151	21.57	7.78	13.79	29.36	0.36	81.35
8	Tyler Lockett	103.5	14.79	3.57	11.21	18.36	0.24	75.94
9	Julio Jones	138.2	19.74	7.17	12.58	26.91	0.36	74.14
10	Odell Beckham Jr	155.3	19.41	7.81	11.61	27.22	0.4	67.68
11	Emmanuel Sanders	145.7	18.21	7.05	11.16	25.26	0.39	65.26
12	Willie Snead	88.3	11.04	2.31	8.72	13.35	0.21	63.67
13	Michael Thomas	150.9	21.56	11.62	9.93	33.18	0.54	61.54
14	Deandre Carter	4.1	2.05	0.07	1.98	2.12	0.03	61.48
15	Brandin Cooks	115.5	16.5	6.37	10.13	22.87	0.39	59.27
16	Robert Woods	142.2	17.78	7.85	9.92	25.63	0.44	58.01
17	Tyreek Hill	164	20.5	11.84	8.66	32.34	0.58	55.99
18	Stefon Diggs	150.3	18.79	9.8	8.99	28.59	0.52	54.81
19	DeSean Jackson	120.3	17.19	8	9.19	25.18	0.47	54.13
20	Keenan Allen	102.2	14.6	5.41	9.19	20.01	0.37	54.02
21	Golden Tate	119.9	17.13	8.16	8.96	25.29	0.48	53.07
22	JuJu Smith-Schuster	117.4	16.77	7.84	8.93	24.61	0.47	52.65
23	Tyler Boyd	142.3	17.79	9.38	8.41	27.16	0.53	51.53
24	Rashad Greene	3.7	1.85	0.07	1.78	1.92	0.04	50.25
25	Alshon Jeffery	90.1	18.02	10.41	7.61	28.43	0.58	49.21
26	Darius Jennings	4.9	1.63	0.06	1.58	1.69	0.04	47.84
27	T.Y. Hilton	85.3	14.22	6.1	8.11	20.32	0.43	47.33
28	Cooper Kupp	106.3	17.72	11.78	5.94	29.49	0.66	44.37
29	Will Fuller	108.3	15.47	8.55	6.92	24.02	0.55	43.46
30	Jarvis Landry	118.8	14.85	7.9	6.95	22.75	0.53	42.76
31	Michael Crabtree	98	12.25	5	7.25	17.25	0.41	42.25
32	Devin Funchess	95.1	13.59	6.44	7.14	20.03	0.47	42.23
33	Paul Richardson	55.5	9.25	2.65	6.6	11.9	0.29	41.49
34	John Brown	114	14.25	7.54	6.71	21.79	0.53	41.19
35	Chris Godwin	87	12.43	5.78	6.65	18.21	0.47	39.15
36	Kenny Golladay	95.7	13.67	7.37	6.3	21.04	0.54	39.04
37	Geronimo Allison	62.3	12.46	5.98	6.48	18.44	0.48	38.42
38	Allen Robinson	69.5	11.58	5.17	6.41	16.76	0.45	37.51
39	Sterling Shepard	109.2	13.65	7.91	5.74	21.56	0.58	37.2
40	Demaryius Thomas	95.2	11.9	5.8	6.1	17.7	0.49	36.33
41	Dede Westbrook	96	12	5.94	6.06	17.94	0.49	36.26
42	Curtis Samuel	27	9	2.98	6.02	11.98	0.33	36.17
43	Marvin Jones	95.7	13.67	8.44	5.23	22.11	0.62	35.81
44	Josh Gordon	61.3	10.22	4.16	6.06	14.37	0.41	35.34
45	Cameron Meredith	26.4	8.8	3.01	5.79	11.81	0.34	34.51
46	Nelson Agholor	88.4	11.05	5.31	5.74	16.36	0.48	34.04
47	Ryan Grant	59	9.83	4.07	5.76	13.9	0.41	33.59
48	Christian Kirk	88.2	11.03	5.47	5.55	16.5	0.5	33.24
49	Anthony Miller	53.8	8.97	3.35	5.62	12.31	0.37	32.98
50	Tyrell Williams	88.3	12.61	8.24	4.37	20.86	0.65	31.92

Again the top-25 here are fairly self-explanatory. There is the odd impostor and Willie Snead is perhaps not someone you consider a must-start option. However, Snead has been extremely solid and there should be little hesitation using him as a third receiver or a flex option on a weekly basis.

With the departure of Tate, I am hopeful we see more consistency from Golladay and Jones in Detroit. Both should get a relatively even split of Tate's targets and both should be in line for some big performances to end the season. Same goes for Thomas in his trade to the Texans. Thomas will be second to Hopkins but Fuller was a huger part of that offense for Houston and they do not really have much more right now.

Christian Kirk and Anthony Miller will continue to have good games as we get deeper into their rookie season. The same goes for D.J. Moore who did not make it onto this list. If they are available then go and pick them up ASAP.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Zach Ertz	145.4	18.18	6.24	11.94	24.41	0.34	71.13
2	Travis Kelce	132.2	16.53	8.24	8.28	24.77	0.5	49.66
3	Eric Ebron	121.4	15.18	7.19	7.98	22.37	0.47	47.19
4	George Kittle	110.4	13.8	7.21	6.59	21.01	0.52	40.22
5	Tyler Conklin	3.3	1.65	0.07	1.58	1.72	0.04	40.15
6	Kyle Rudolph	79.1	9.89	3.49	6.4	13.38	0.35	37.92
7	OJ Howard	87.9	12.56	6.61	5.94	19.17	0.53	36.4
8	Jordan Reed	67.6	9.66	3.6	6.06	13.26	0.37	35.55
9	Hakeem Valles	3.1	1.55	0.07	1.48	1.62	0.05	35.53
10	Greg Olsen	41.2	10.3	4.35	5.95	14.65	0.42	34.69
11	Jared Cook	101.4	14.49	10.91	3.58	25.39	0.75	33.72
12	Jack Doyle	36	12	7.55	4.45	19.55	0.63	31.07
13	Tyler Eifert	38.9	9.73	4.65	5.07	14.38	0.48	30.05
14	Rob Gronkowski	79.8	11.4	6.99	4.41	18.39	0.61	30
15	Trey Burton	87.3	12.47	8.92	3.55	21.4	0.72	29.9
16	Jimmy Graham	71	10.14	5.37	4.77	15.51	0.53	29.29
17	Austin Hooper	78.1	11.16	7.36	3.8	18.51	0.66	28.08
18	Vance McDonald	61.1	10.18	6.88	3.31	17.06	0.68	25.27
19	Nick O'Leary	20.2	10.1	6.79	3.31	16.89	0.67	25.13
20	Geoff Swaim	45.5	7.58	3.4	4.18	10.98	0.45	24.5
21	Benjamin Watson	52	8.67	4.81	3.85	13.48	0.56	24.27
22	David Njoku	74.7	9.34	6.51	2.83	15.85	0.7	22.73
23	Evan Engram	45.5	9.1	7.25	1.85	16.35	0.8	20.52
24	Mark Andrews	49.4	6.18	2.76	3.42	8.93	0.45	19.99
25	Demetrius Harris	27.4	6.85	3.65	3.2	10.5	0.53	19.71
26	Chris Herndon IV	49.1	8.18	6.15	2.03	14.34	0.75	19.06
27	Michael Roberts	28.3	9.43	9.93	-0.5	19.37	1.05	18.39
28	Will Dissly	35.6	8.9	8.98	-0.08	17.88	1.01	17.72
29	Seth DeValve	14.4	7.2	5.09	2.11	12.29	0.71	17.38
30	Dallas Goedert	55.8	7.97	7.46	0.51	15.43	0.94	16.49

There are realistically 10 options here that you can trust most weeks and then after that, you are streaming based on matchups. Tight end is a tough position to get right in fantasy leagues but it is nice if you have one of the top 15-17 guys here (Excluding the clear outliers).

Hopefully, both Njoku and Engram can find some consistency to end the year. Both have been in rough situation offensively but we know they are talented. I want to draw some attention to Chris Herndon who is not a sexy pick but has been scoring recently and appears to have a good thing going with Darnold. If you are really stuck this week then gamble on a touchdown from him.