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Week 9 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions


It is a really tough week with six teams on a bye. Fantasy rosters will be stretched and owners will be desperately looking for options who can give them solid production. It may not be the most amazing upside in the world but when every team is hurting a solid six or seven points from a reliable contributor can be what you need to win a game. As always my recommendation is to try and balance the consistency with the ceiling. If a slightly less consistent player with a slightly higher ceiling has a good matchup this week then be brave. However, if those high ceiling guys have tough matchups and they are unreliable it might be time to find them a spot on your bench this week.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following week's waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of those players below.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

Quarterbacks

Rank Player Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Patrick Mahomes 216.94 27.12 6.78 20.34 33.9 0.25 135.56
2 Cam Newton 164.74 23.53 5.12 18.42 28.65 0.22 131.76
3 Carson Wentz 128.42 21.4 4.24 17.16 25.65 0.2 129.4
4 Philip Rivers 142.22 20.32 4.06 16.26 24.37 0.2 122.1
5 Alex Smith 106.14 15.16 2.61 12.55 17.77 0.17 103.2
6 Aaron Rodgers 152.92 21.85 6.14 15.71 27.99 0.28 99.56
7 Kirk Cousins 170.64 21.33 6.69 14.64 28.02 0.31 89.35
8 Russell Wilson 125.94 17.99 4.76 13.23 22.75 0.26 85.98
9 Matt Ryan 168.06 24.01 9.51 14.5 33.51 0.4 84.65
10 Andrew Luck 169.78 21.22 7.27 13.96 28.49 0.34 83.21
11 Tom Brady 152.9 19.11 6.19 12.93 25.3 0.32 78.16
12 Matthew Stafford 124.78 17.83 5.65 12.18 23.47 0.32 74.11
13 Ben Roethlisberger 144 20.57 8.33 12.24 28.9 0.4 71.38
14 Joe Flacco 130.86 16.36 5.15 11.2 21.51 0.32 68.27
15 Mitch Trubisky 162.16 23.17 12.03 11.13 35.2 0.52 67.76
16 Andy Dalton 140.18 17.52 6.19 11.33 23.72 0.35 67.09
17 Deshaun Watson 162.04 20.26 9.03 11.23 29.28 0.45 65.7
18 Jared Goff 161.2 20.15 9.61 10.54 29.76 0.48 62.39
19 Ryan Fitzpatrick 118 23.6 14.59 9.01 38.19 0.62 61.78
20 Eli Manning 116.98 14.62 4.77 9.85 19.39 0.33 59.43
21 Baker Mayfield 87.94 14.66 4.9 9.75 19.56 0.33 58.47
22 CJ Beathard 80.98 16.2 6.25 9.94 22.45 0.39 58.15
23 Drew Brees 146.5 20.93 12.05 8.87 32.98 0.58 57.27
24 Jimmy Garoppolo 46.02 15.34 5.76 9.58 21.1 0.38 56.19
25 Dak Prescott 116.28 16.61 7.94 8.68 24.55 0.48 51.38
26 Blake Bortles 136.98 17.12 9.22 7.9 26.34 0.54 48.92
27 Sam Darnold 104.3 13.04 4.84 8.2 17.88 0.37 48.16
28 Case Keenum 113.9 14.24 6 8.23 20.24 0.42 48
29 Derek Carr 114.68 16.38 8.97 7.41 25.36 0.55 46.29
30 Jameis Winston 68.34 17.09 11.49 5.6 28.57 0.67 42.49

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through three games from largest to smallest. Ryan Fitzpatrick is back in our lives! The Buccaneers decision to bench Fitzpatrick made some sense. They need to know what they have in Jameis Winston. However, from a fantasy point of view, it was someone what of a nightmare. Right now Fitzpatrick has a much higher fantasy ceiling that Winston and he should be on the cusp of a must-start option in most leagues this week.

Alex Smith remains the surprise in the top-10 here. Smith is wonderfully consistent as a fantasy option but in shallow leagues, his ceiling of 17.77 is concerning. This weak he is playing a Falcons defense who have had their problems. If he was going to be a starting option in any one quarterback 10- or 12-team leagues this would be the week. Even then I still cannot pull the trigger on him really.

Trubisky is a name to avoid this week if possible. The Bills have had success against quarterbacks, even making Tom Brady work hard and I think they can succeed against Trubisky. I would also avoid Watson this week in Denver especially given the limited time he has had with Demaryius Thomas. However, both Jared Goff and Drew Brees are must-starts in what should be a shoot-out in the New Orleans.

 

Running Backs

Rank Player Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Todd Gurley 237.1 29.64 4.32 25.32 33.95 0.15 233.15
2 Saquon Barkley 202.6 25.33 5.82 19.51 31.14 0.23 135.57
3 Melvin Gordon 158.5 26.42 6.6 19.82 33.02 0.25 132.14
4 Christian McCaffrey 134.3 19.19 5.16 14.03 24.34 0.27 90.56
5 James White 171.3 21.41 7.54 13.87 28.95 0.35 82.2
6 James Conner 177.2 25.31 12.12 13.2 37.43 0.48 78.21
7 Alvin Kamara 181.1 25.87 13.52 12.35 39.4 0.52 75.36
8 Ezekiel Elliott 132.4 18.91 7.33 11.58 26.25 0.39 67.69
9 Joe Mixon 113.4 18.9 7.9 11 26.8 0.42 64.13
10 TJ Yeldon 137 17.13 6.26 10.87 23.38 0.37 64
11 Kareem Hunt 166.4 20.8 10.24 10.56 31.04 0.49 63.05
12 David Johnson 120.2 15.03 5.04 9.98 20.07 0.34 59.8
13 Alex Collins 96.9 12.11 3.65 8.46 15.76 0.3 52.33
14 Kerryon Johnson 90.4 12.91 4.37 8.54 17.29 0.34 51.04
15 Tevin Coleman 83.7 11.96 3.88 8.08 15.83 0.32 48.85
16 Marshawn Lynch 79 13.17 4.92 8.24 18.09 0.37 48.39
17 Phillip Lindsay 108.7 13.59 5.65 7.94 19.23 0.42 46.29
18 Austin Ekeler 92.8 13.26 5.33 7.93 18.59 0.4 46.24
19 Tarik Cohen 120.2 17.17 10.52 6.65 27.7 0.61 45.19
20 Marlon Mack 74.7 18.68 13.19 5.48 31.87 0.71 45.11
21 Adrian Peterson 113.8 16.26 9.19 7.07 25.45 0.57 45.01
22 Devonta Freeman 14.1 7.05 1.34 5.71 8.39 0.19 44.04
23 Lamar Miller 89.2 12.74 5.5 7.24 18.25 0.43 42.25
24 Justin Jackson 4.6 2.3 0.14 2.16 2.44 0.06 39.71
25 Kenyan Drake 114.7 14.34 8.94 5.4 23.28 0.62 37.33
26 Mark Ingram 39.7 13.23 7.6 5.63 20.84 0.57 36.27
27 Javorius Allen 88.8 11.1 4.9 6.2 16 0.44 36.25
28 Jordan Howard 76.9 10.99 4.98 6 15.97 0.45 35.22
29 Ito Smith 51.3 8.55 2.94 5.61 11.49 0.34 33.39
30 Chris Carson 73.7 12.28 7.4 4.88 19.69 0.6 32.66
31 Giovani Bernard 55.3 13.83 10.74 3.09 24.56 0.78 31.63
32 Jay Ajayi 43.4 10.85 5.69 5.16 16.54 0.52 31.55
33 Nyheim Hines 95.5 11.94 7.44 4.5 19.38 0.62 31.09
34 Sony Michel 73.3 12.22 7.95 4.26 20.17 0.65 30.98
35 Jalen Richard 73.9 10.56 5.5 5.06 16.05 0.52 30.83
36 Chris Thompson 66.2 13.24 10.12 3.12 23.36 0.76 30.56
37 Dion Lewis 82.6 11.8 7.79 4.01 19.59 0.66 29.67
38 Royce Freeman 61 8.71 3.64 5.07 12.36 0.42 29.56
39 Wendell Smallwood 73 10.43 5.7 4.73 16.13 0.55 29.51
40 Carlos Hyde 78.2 11.17 7.66 3.52 18.83 0.69 27.47
41 Carlos Hyde 78.2 11.17 7.66 3.52 18.83 0.69 27.47
42 Isaiah Crowell 98.6 12.33 10.17 2.16 22.49 0.83 27.26
43 Aaron Jones 49.5 9.9 5.66 4.24 15.56 0.57 27.21
44 Matt Breida 86.7 10.84 7.31 3.53 18.14 0.67 26.91
45 Latavius Murray 91.2 11.4 8.92 2.48 20.32 0.78 25.97
46 Theo Riddick 39.8 7.96 3.54 4.42 11.5 0.44 25.87
47 Bilal Powell 62.3 8.9 4.93 3.97 13.83 0.55 24.97
48 Dalvin Cook 29.5 9.83 7.01 2.83 16.84 0.71 23.64
49 LeSean McCoy 61.4 8.77 5.63 3.14 14.41 0.64 22.43
50 Jamaal Williams 43 6.14 2.34 3.8 8.49 0.38 22.24

Once again this week the player in the top-15 I am staying well away from is Tevin Coleman. He has been maddeningly inconsistent and relied on the big play too much. The Redskins have a good defense that I think he struggles against. Alex Collins is a name to watch on the injury report this week. If active he could have a nice day at home against the Steelers.

Marlon Mack has become a monster and is someone you should not hesitate to start going forward. With the Colts on a bye I would absolutely look to trade for him if his owner needs an option this week.

Drake, Howard, and Carson will continue to be head scratchers in their situations. Surprisingly of the three, the one I like the most going forward is Carson. Dion Lewis looked like he had crept ahead of Derrick Henry in the Titans last game before their trip to London. I am interested to see whether that continues this week coming out of the bye.

Wide Receivers

Rank Player Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Adam Thielen 205 25.63 4.48 21.14 30.11 0.17 172.08
2 Antonio Brown 149.2 21.31 4.81 16.51 26.12 0.23 115.79
3 Julian Edelman 67.1 16.78 3.32 13.45 20.1 0.2 101.43
4 DeAndre Hopkins 172.2 21.53 6.25 15.27 27.78 0.29 95.65
5 Davante Adams 157 22.43 6.98 15.45 29.41 0.31 94.5
6 AJ Green 156.7 19.59 5.98 13.61 25.56 0.31 83.77
7 Mike Evans 151 21.57 7.78 13.79 29.36 0.36 81.35
8 Tyler Lockett 103.5 14.79 3.57 11.21 18.36 0.24 75.94
9 Julio Jones 138.2 19.74 7.17 12.58 26.91 0.36 74.14
10 Odell Beckham Jr 155.3 19.41 7.81 11.61 27.22 0.4 67.68
11 Emmanuel Sanders 145.7 18.21 7.05 11.16 25.26 0.39 65.26
12 Willie Snead 88.3 11.04 2.31 8.72 13.35 0.21 63.67
13 Michael Thomas 150.9 21.56 11.62 9.93 33.18 0.54 61.54
14 Deandre Carter 4.1 2.05 0.07 1.98 2.12 0.03 61.48
15 Brandin Cooks 115.5 16.5 6.37 10.13 22.87 0.39 59.27
16 Robert Woods 142.2 17.78 7.85 9.92 25.63 0.44 58.01
17 Tyreek Hill 164 20.5 11.84 8.66 32.34 0.58 55.99
18 Stefon Diggs 150.3 18.79 9.8 8.99 28.59 0.52 54.81
19 DeSean Jackson 120.3 17.19 8 9.19 25.18 0.47 54.13
20 Keenan Allen 102.2 14.6 5.41 9.19 20.01 0.37 54.02
21 Golden Tate 119.9 17.13 8.16 8.96 25.29 0.48 53.07
22 JuJu Smith-Schuster 117.4 16.77 7.84 8.93 24.61 0.47 52.65
23 Tyler Boyd 142.3 17.79 9.38 8.41 27.16 0.53 51.53
24 Rashad Greene 3.7 1.85 0.07 1.78 1.92 0.04 50.25
25 Alshon Jeffery 90.1 18.02 10.41 7.61 28.43 0.58 49.21
26 Darius Jennings 4.9 1.63 0.06 1.58 1.69 0.04 47.84
27 T.Y. Hilton 85.3 14.22 6.1 8.11 20.32 0.43 47.33
28 Cooper Kupp 106.3 17.72 11.78 5.94 29.49 0.66 44.37
29 Will Fuller 108.3 15.47 8.55 6.92 24.02 0.55 43.46
30 Jarvis Landry 118.8 14.85 7.9 6.95 22.75 0.53 42.76
31 Michael Crabtree 98 12.25 5 7.25 17.25 0.41 42.25
32 Devin Funchess 95.1 13.59 6.44 7.14 20.03 0.47 42.23
33 Paul Richardson 55.5 9.25 2.65 6.6 11.9 0.29 41.49
34 John Brown 114 14.25 7.54 6.71 21.79 0.53 41.19
35 Chris Godwin 87 12.43 5.78 6.65 18.21 0.47 39.15
36 Kenny Golladay 95.7 13.67 7.37 6.3 21.04 0.54 39.04
37 Geronimo Allison 62.3 12.46 5.98 6.48 18.44 0.48 38.42
38 Allen Robinson 69.5 11.58 5.17 6.41 16.76 0.45 37.51
39 Sterling Shepard 109.2 13.65 7.91 5.74 21.56 0.58 37.2
40 Demaryius Thomas 95.2 11.9 5.8 6.1 17.7 0.49 36.33
41 Dede Westbrook 96 12 5.94 6.06 17.94 0.49 36.26
42 Curtis Samuel 27 9 2.98 6.02 11.98 0.33 36.17
43 Marvin Jones 95.7 13.67 8.44 5.23 22.11 0.62 35.81
44 Josh Gordon 61.3 10.22 4.16 6.06 14.37 0.41 35.34
45 Cameron Meredith 26.4 8.8 3.01 5.79 11.81 0.34 34.51
46 Nelson Agholor 88.4 11.05 5.31 5.74 16.36 0.48 34.04
47 Ryan Grant 59 9.83 4.07 5.76 13.9 0.41 33.59
48 Christian Kirk 88.2 11.03 5.47 5.55 16.5 0.5 33.24
49 Anthony Miller 53.8 8.97 3.35 5.62 12.31 0.37 32.98
50 Tyrell Williams 88.3 12.61 8.24 4.37 20.86 0.65 31.92

Again the top-25 here are fairly self-explanatory. There is the odd impostor and Willie Snead is perhaps not someone you consider a must-start option. However, Snead has been extremely solid and there should be little hesitation using him as a third receiver or a flex option on a weekly basis.

With the departure of Tate, I am hopeful we see more consistency from Golladay and Jones in Detroit. Both should get a relatively even split of Tate's targets and both should be in line for some big performances to end the season. Same goes for Thomas in his trade to the Texans. Thomas will be second to Hopkins but Fuller was a huger part of that offense for Houston and they do not really have much more right now.

Christian Kirk and Anthony Miller will continue to have good games as we get deeper into their rookie season. The same goes for D.J. Moore who did not make it onto this list. If they are available then go and pick them up ASAP.

 

Tight Ends

Rank Player Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Zach Ertz 145.4 18.18 6.24 11.94 24.41 0.34 71.13
2 Travis Kelce 132.2 16.53 8.24 8.28 24.77 0.5 49.66
3 Eric Ebron 121.4 15.18 7.19 7.98 22.37 0.47 47.19
4 George Kittle 110.4 13.8 7.21 6.59 21.01 0.52 40.22
5 Tyler Conklin 3.3 1.65 0.07 1.58 1.72 0.04 40.15
6 Kyle Rudolph 79.1 9.89 3.49 6.4 13.38 0.35 37.92
7 OJ Howard 87.9 12.56 6.61 5.94 19.17 0.53 36.4
8 Jordan Reed 67.6 9.66 3.6 6.06 13.26 0.37 35.55
9 Hakeem Valles 3.1 1.55 0.07 1.48 1.62 0.05 35.53
10 Greg Olsen 41.2 10.3 4.35 5.95 14.65 0.42 34.69
11 Jared Cook 101.4 14.49 10.91 3.58 25.39 0.75 33.72
12 Jack Doyle 36 12 7.55 4.45 19.55 0.63 31.07
13 Tyler Eifert 38.9 9.73 4.65 5.07 14.38 0.48 30.05
14 Rob Gronkowski 79.8 11.4 6.99 4.41 18.39 0.61 30
15 Trey Burton 87.3 12.47 8.92 3.55 21.4 0.72 29.9
16 Jimmy Graham 71 10.14 5.37 4.77 15.51 0.53 29.29
17 Austin Hooper 78.1 11.16 7.36 3.8 18.51 0.66 28.08
18 Vance McDonald 61.1 10.18 6.88 3.31 17.06 0.68 25.27
19 Nick O'Leary 20.2 10.1 6.79 3.31 16.89 0.67 25.13
20 Geoff Swaim 45.5 7.58 3.4 4.18 10.98 0.45 24.5
21 Benjamin Watson 52 8.67 4.81 3.85 13.48 0.56 24.27
22 David Njoku 74.7 9.34 6.51 2.83 15.85 0.7 22.73
23 Evan Engram 45.5 9.1 7.25 1.85 16.35 0.8 20.52
24 Mark Andrews 49.4 6.18 2.76 3.42 8.93 0.45 19.99
25 Demetrius Harris 27.4 6.85 3.65 3.2 10.5 0.53 19.71
26 Chris Herndon IV 49.1 8.18 6.15 2.03 14.34 0.75 19.06
27 Michael Roberts 28.3 9.43 9.93 -0.5 19.37 1.05 18.39
28 Will Dissly 35.6 8.9 8.98 -0.08 17.88 1.01 17.72
29 Seth DeValve 14.4 7.2 5.09 2.11 12.29 0.71 17.38
30 Dallas Goedert 55.8 7.97 7.46 0.51 15.43 0.94 16.49

There are realistically 10 options here that you can trust most weeks and then after that, you are streaming based on matchups. Tight end is a tough position to get right in fantasy leagues but it is nice if you have one of the top 15-17 guys here (Excluding the clear outliers).

Hopefully, both Njoku and Engram can find some consistency to end the year. Both have been in rough situation offensively but we know they are talented. I want to draw some attention to Chris Herndon who is not a sexy pick but has been scoring recently and appears to have a good thing going with Darnold. If you are really stuck this week then gamble on a touchdown from him.

 

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