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Week 6 Start/Sit: Monday Night Football Matchups Analysis


This game is a matchup of the two top teams in the NFC North, by the standings at least. The key to this game will, of course be the offenses. Both the Lions and Packers come into this game boasting offenses which rank in the top half of the NFL and this game should be no different.

We know Aaron Rodgers has a revenge mentality. He lost both games last season to Detroit and even Matt Patricia said this week, he is nervous for this exact reason. When the opposing coach is nervous, maybe you should be as well.

This line started at Packers -4 and has already moved to Packers -6 meaning a lot of people agree with Patricia’s assessment of the game. We will just have to wait and see who is right. But one thing is certain: there should be points put up in this one. On both sides of the football.

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Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

Game Time: Monday, October 14th, 2019 @ 8:15 pm EST
Game Line: Green Bay -6 O/U 46.5
Detroit Lions Record: 2-1-1
Green Bay Packers Record: 4-1

 

Must Start

Aaron Rodgers, QB - Green Bay Packers

Coming off a game against Dallas where, even though the Packers won, he did not throw a touchdown, Rodgers is going to be chomping at the bit in this one.

Aaron Rodgers is finally healthy and is rounding into form. But he has not had the monster game which we are all accustomed to. With only six touchdowns through five games, this could be the week where Rodgers lays the proverbial hammer down on another division rival. A feat he has done far too often for us to not think it is possible yet again.

However, if Rodgers is going to put up a big game, he'll have to do so without star receiver Davante Adams, who's been declared out with a lingering toe injury. With Adams out, make sure you have either Geronimo Allison or MVS to start in his place if possible.

Matthew Stafford, QB - Detroit Lions

In four games this season, Matthew Stafford is averaging 280.5 yards per game. He is also averaging 2.25 touchdown passes per game and has only thrown two interceptions. These are Rodgers-type numbers.

We all know Stafford had a down season in 2018. Much like Rodgers, he was dealing with a major injury. Unlike Rodgers, we did not know about this one until after the season ended. Not to mention the serious issues being dealt with by his wife. Anyone could have a down season with those kinds of stressors on them. So, I, for one, am giving him a pass for 2018.

But this season is different. He has an offensive line which is keeping him upright and he has a strong running game for once. With the improved surrounding cast, this has made Stafford that much better as well. This means the days of low-end QB2 weeks may be over as Stafford and the Lions both are on an upwards trajectory. So, climb aboard and enjoy the ride.

Kerryon Johnson, RB - Detroit Lions

The best running back Detroit has had since Barry Sanders, Johnson is also finally getting the work he deserves after the release of C.J. Anderson.

Coming off the bye, Johnson will see plenty of work in this one. We saw in the Packers last home game against the Eagles that they are beatable on the ground. If Jordan Howard can have three touchdowns against this defense, Johnson should be able to run for 100 yards and also score a touchdown. Not to mention he actually has hands as well. With Theo Riddick gone and Ty Johnson not providing a viable secondary option, this will be the Kerryon show.

With the potent offense of Green Bay, expect the Lions to try to keep their offense on the field. This means an even heavier workload for Johnson as they ground and pound the ball for as long as the game is within reach. This makes Johnson a top 10-to-12 RB play this week.

Aaron Jones, RB - Green Bay Packers

100 yards and four touchdowns against Dallas last week is a incredible game. Adding seven receptions for 75 yards makes itone for the books. He is not going to duplicate the performance this week, but with Jamal Williams out for another week, Jones is in line for similar work in this one.

The team is finally realizing how good he can be when given the opportunity. More importantly Aaron Rodgers trusts him. This is key since as with all teams, if the quarterback does not like you, you aren’t going to be used.

Much like Kerryon Johnson on the other side of the field, Jones is a monster in the pass game as well as the run game. His multi-faceted skillset allows him to stay on the field frequently, and this will keep drives moving at the faster pace the Packers yearn for with Rodgers handling the offense.

Trey Flowers was a big addition to the Lions defensive line this off season. But the line is still suspect, and the offensive line of the Packers should be able to control the trenches making Aaron jones a solid top-10 start at the RB position for the week.

Kenny Golladay, WR - Detroit Lions

Sure. The Lions and Darrell Bevell want to run the ball. And run al lot. But even the most run heavy teams still need to pass the ball. When the Lions do this, their first option is Kenny Golladay.

In four games this season, Golladay has 19 receptions for 243 yards and four touchdowns. While these numbers are not on the level of a top WR like Julio Jones, these are solid numbers for a number one receiver on a run-first offense. Not to mention the fact Detroit is winning using this strategy, meaning it will keep being employed. It is also clear that Golladay is the number one target for Matthew Stafford as he has averaged 9.0 targets in the four games this season.

While Green Bay has a good secondary, we saw last week they can be beaten when Amari Cooper gashed them for 227 yards. A total which could have been even higher had he not dropped a touchdown which led to an interception.

With this game expected to be high-scoring, the pass game will have to play a big part in the game plan. And for a team with two main targets in the pass game. Both should be in play in this one.

Marvin Jones, WR - Detroit Lions

Not far behind Kenny Golladay in the peeking order is Marvin Jones. With one less reception than Golladay on the season, he has more receiving yards with 277. The major difference between the two receivers is the value of the 6’5" Golladay in the red zone. This leads to more looks down near the end zone and there for the variance in touchdown numbers. But don’t get things twisted, when Stafford needs a big play, Jones is still very much in play.

With Jones healthy after being banged up in 2018, he's having another productive season as he mentors the younger Golladay into stardom.

While his six targets per gam lags far behind the nine given to Golladay, he is still a dangerous threat. His 15.4 yards per catch average is the best on the team for the regular performers and his big play ability has always been his calling card. Even when providing the deep threat to Golden Tate’s slot presence in previous seasons. Including a season in 2017 when both finished as top 12 receivers for fantasy.

Jones is not going to finish in the top 12 this season and probably not this week, but if you need a consistent, top-25 performer to play as your WR3, Jones may be your guy for this week and the rest of the season.

 

Consider Sitting

Danny Amendola, WR - Detroit Lions

Yes, Stafford is good this season. But with Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay getting much of the work, it will be difficult for Amendola to find any traction on the notoriously slippery Lambeau grass.

While the pass game should be good this game, the run game is really where the Lions will want to shine. This means a lot of blocking work for the likes of Amendola and T.J. Hockenson. This is the main reason both of these players find themselves in this section of the rundown.

We have seen in the past Danny Amendola van have some games. But they are few and far in between and most of them occur in the playoffs. Although important, this is not a playoff game. So, don’t expect a lot of work to land in his lap. This means, even as a flex, he is a tricky play. One which is not worth taking a risk on. As the ceiling is far to low to make it worth the risk.

T.J. Hockenson, TE - Detroit Lions

He was outstanding in Week 1 against the Cardinals, but after that, not so much.

The bye week came at the right time for Hockenson after suffering a scary concussion in Week 4. But he may not be fully back yet. If he does play, he is going to be used mostly as a dominant blocker for Kerryon Johnson to help the run game. His targets in this one will be limited and even if he does get a few, Green Bay is very good against the tight end position. This means the payoff will not be high. These are other tight end options out there this week which provide much higher ceiling and, more importantly a higher floor. A player like Gerald Everett or even Ricky Seals-Jones this week could provide you with a better week. So, for at least one more week, let the rookie sit this one out for you.

 

Possible Sleepers

Geronimo Allison, WR - Green Bay Packers

Allison becomes much more attractive with Davante Adams out. Allison now finds himself getting a significant boost. With MVS being smothered by Darrius Slay, it will come to Allison in the slot to handle the majority of the work. While Slay is an all-pro caliber defensive back, the slot corners for Detroit are subpar. This will allow Allison to feast on them while also allowing Aaron Jones to get work done in the run game.

Geronimo Allison should be a PPR machine in this game and a touchdown could easily follow.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR - Green Bay Packers

One of these two receivers is going to have a game worth using. Valdes-Scantling might have a tougher time, as he will likely see Darrius Slay who is a top cover corner in the NFL. MVS will have some deep ball opportunities though, but with Davante Adams out, MVS's value takes a hit due to the coverage he will see.

Jimmy Graham, TE - Green Bay Packers

Old and busted? Yes. But he is still 6’7 and you cannot teach size.

While Graham is no longer the dominant tight end we saw in New Orleans, he can still get you four catches for 40 yards and has the ability to score a touchdown when in the red zone. If this does happen it could make your week at the position. But of course, the risk is there like it is with all sleepers. They are after all, sleepers for a reason. Because they are risky.

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