Welcome back, RotoBallers! Below you will find part one of our Week 4 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Pierre Camus (@pfunk00) breaks down the first half of the Week 4 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis by Ben Ruppert (@Ben_Ruppert_21).

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

Editor's Note: Be sure to check out FantasyAces DFS contests. New users that sign up on Fantasy Aces and make a $20 deposit will receive RotoBaller's full season NFL Premium Pass for free (including Premium DFS), normally a $59.99 value. Expert DFS research, sample lineups, matchup ratings and lots more!

 

Week 3 Recap

Greatest Hits: Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB), DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN), Marvin Jones Jr. (WR, DET)

I'll be honest: I said Marvin Jones was a must-start, but I didn't know he would suddenly morph into the top receiver in the league! Sure wish I would have actually drafted him in any of my leagues. Murray continues to get better as a dual-threat back, quelling the notion that Derrick Henry would cut into his value. Aaron Rodgers, well, he's back to being Aaron Rodgers.

Greatest Misses: C.J. Anderson (RB, DEN), Kelvin Benjamin (WR, CAR), Emmanuel Sanders (WR, DEN)

Technically, I was wrong about the entire Denver-Cincinnati game, but who's counting? The Bengals certainly planned to stop the run, but seemed to forget that the Broncos still have a pair of really good wide receivers on the field. Kelvin Benjamin and the Panthers offense was held in check by the only team that might rival Denver for title of best defense in the NFL, the Vikings. Does Benjamin return to Love status this week? Let's find out.

 

Matchup Analysis for NFL Week 4

Colts @ Jaguars - Sunday 10/2 @ 9:30 AM EST

Matchups We Love

Frank Gore (RB, IND) - Frank still has it in him. He found the end zone in Week 3 and had his most productive game with 82 yards. The problem with Gore has been all about volume thus far. The Colts fell behind early in their first two games, forcing them to play catch up. After allowing 39 and 34 points in weeks 1 and 2 respectively, they stiffened a bit last week, which allowed the running game to get going. The Jags' offense has struggled all season, so Gore may get a chance to see 20+ carries again, with nobody remotely threatening his job security. Jacksonville is allowing 109.7 rushing yards per game, which makes a 100-yard game a distinct possibility for Gore.

T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND) - The loss of Donte Moncrief had an immediate impact on Hilton's value, in a very good way. Hilton was targeted 11 times - the third straight game he's had at least that many - but this time he was able to pull in eight for a whopping 174 yards. Jacksonville hasn't statistically been bad against the pass, but then again opponents haven't had the need to pass much against the 0-3 Jags. Hilton is always a big play threat and nobody in the opposing secondary seems to be a big impediment.

Matchups We Hate

Allen Robinson (WR, JAX) - Don't take it personal, A-Rob. It's not you, it's your quarterback... and O-line... and running backs... and head coach... Robinson has done nothing to hurt his own production and remains an elite talent at WR. He needs some help, however, and it doesn't look like it's coming soon. The Colts' secondary got Vontae Davis back last week and aren't as bad as advertised any more. London games are always tricky for teams with losing records, which doesn't bode well for embattled coach Gus Bradley, who may have to book a separate return flight for the trip home if the Jags get embarassed on international TV.

Notable Players

Blake Bortles (QB, JAX) - Panic time has officially set in for Bortles and the Jags, rightfully so. On the surface, the Colts might seem like the perfect remedy as a team allowing 304.3 passing YPG. Bortles was able to put up 300-yard efforts against Green Bay and San Diego, so there's a good chance he could do the same here. Will it be in garbage time again? Probably. Do fantasy owners care? Not one bit. His reputation as a garbage time stat-stuffer is well-deserved, as he has only thrown three first quarter TDs in his entire career. You can't trust him to come out with a great performance, but he should still be good for double-digit fantasy points.

Andrew Luck (QB, IND) - I don't particularly love or hate Luck this week, so here he is. He won't face a tough test, but that also means the Colts might not be forced to pass as much (hence the love for Gore). In anything above an 8 team league, you're starting him anyway.

 

Lions @ Bears - Sunday 10/2 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Matthew Stafford (QB, DET) - No Megatron, no problem. No Abdullah? So what? Stafford has found a new favorite receiver in Marvin Jones and is putting up passing yards at an impressive rate. A road game might actually benefit him, as he has gone over 340 yards and three TD in each of his two road contests this season. Chicago's defense has been generous to say the least, which is why this section will be filled with Lions.

Dwayne Washington (RB, DET) - Beat reporters have been talking about Washington's increased role this week after he saw 10 carries in Week 3. Now, the coaching staff is talking him up too, noting the progress he is making. Normally, we should be wary about such overconfidence for an unproven rookie, but this matchup is too tasty to pass up. The Bears allow 142.7 Rush YPG, trailing only Miami and New Orleans. If there is a breakout candidate this week, it's Washington. By the way, he is still unowned in 65% of fantasy leagues, in case anyone out there happens to have an injured running back.

Marvin Jones (WR, DET) - His 408 receiving yards and 136 YPG lead the league after three games. Chicago has actually been much stingier against the pass than the run, but the Bears are still playing without Kyle Fuller, Brandon Boykin, Lamarr Houston, and Danny Trevathan. He'd be hard-pressed to top 200 yards in consecutive weeks, but he has become a solid WR2 in all formats.

Matchups We Hate

Kevin White (WR, CHI) - White saw a whopping 14 targets last week, yet somehow managed just 62 yards on six catches. He will need to improve on his 48.1% Catch% if he is to become a true complement to Alshon Jeffrey. With a rookie at running back and a backup QB at the helm, it doesn't seem likely.

Theo Riddick (RB, DET) - As Washington's role increases, Riddick's will go down accordingly. Riddick should see 8-10 carries and will remain the primary pass-catcher, but I don't expect the Lions to be in catch-up mode on Sunday, meaning his role could be limited. That might not be enough to make him anything but a flex play in full PPR leagues.

Notable Players

Jordan Howard (RB, CHI) - Howard has been one of the hottest waiver adds of the week now that he gets the chance to shine as the starter. He showed some burst in the second half of Sunday night's game, finishing with 92 total yards and averaging five yards per carry. The Lions give up a 5.1 Y/A to opposing runners, so he should find some space to maneuver. It's hard to predict how many touches he will get, since the Lions may put up a good amount of points, but he is worth a shot given the state of the running back position these days.

 

Panthers @ Falcons - Sunday 10/2 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Kelvin Benjamin (WR, CAR) - 91 yards and a TD in Week 1, 108 yards and two TD in Week 2, a pair of goose eggs in Week 3. It's hard to explain, but the Vikings simply dominated the Panthers and took them out of their entire gameplan. The Falcons won't present the same problem. Atlanta is allowing 318.7 receiving yards per game, fifth-most in the league. They have also allowed ten receiving TDs, which is tied for most in the league. It wouldn't be surprising to see him reach the end zone twice.

Cam Newton (QB, CAR) - Carolina has had two brutal matchups to start their 2016 schedule with San Fran sandwiched in between. Now another respite as they travel to Atlanta and face the 30th ranked defense in the NFL. It's not likely the reigning MVP will have back-to-back letdowns, much less against the Falcons. Cam should be the top-ranked QB this week in all projections and may be worth his high price tag in DFS leagues.

Matchups We Hate

Matt Ryan (QB, ATL) - While you can't deny Ryan's great start, throwing for 970 yards and a 7/1 TD/INT rate, scheduling matters. The Falcons have faced three of the five worst pass defenses so far, but now they get the defending NFC champs. Mohamed Sanu left last week's game early and is questionable with a shoulder issue. Julio Jones is questionable every single week it seems, even during summer vacation. This matchup has letdown written all over it.

Cameron Artis-Payne (RB, CAR) - Desperate times call for desperate measures, which may include putting Artis-Payne in your lineup. He toted the rock 12 times for 47 yards against a tough Vikings defense last week. Things should be easier this week, but CAP is yet to do anything to truly inspire much confidence. He has never carried the ball more than 14 times in a game and probably won't do so this week as Fozzy Whittaker remains in the mix.

Notable Players

Julio Jones (WR, ATL) - Julio has gutted it out each week, despite his constant questionable tag. He doesn't look 100%, however, and inexplicably disappeared last Monday night with just one reception (when we needed you most!) He'll probably appear again and shouldn't be discounted, regardless of matchup. As long as he's in Atlanta's starting lineup, he has to be in yours.

 

Raiders @ Ravens - Sunday 10/2 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Michael Crabtree (WR, OAK) - The Raiders passing attack has been extremely efficient, but not exactly explosive. Amari Cooper remains a big play threat, but still hasn't shaken his case of the drops. Crabtree has been Mr. Reliable, posting a 76% Catch% and 19 catches for 220 yards. Going against a pair of cornerbacks in Baltimore that have yet to register an interception, Crabtree is a safe bet as a WR3.

Dennis Pitta (TE, BAL) - Pitta is experiencing a revival season with 18 catches for 183 yards in three games. Last year, Oakland was third-worst when it came to allowing fantasy points to tight ends. This season is no different, as they again rank near the bottom, allowing 10.2 fantasy PPG. Pitta has reached the lower tier of TE1 options in the early part of the season and should be started with confidence this week.

Matchups We Hate

Derek Carr (QB, OAK) - Carr has thrown for 867 yards, good for 10th among all QBs, with a 5/1 TD/INT rate. While the Raiders haven't had many problems scoring points, they also benefited from playing the Saints in Week 1 and Falcons in Week 2. Against a tougher defense in Tennessee, Carr posted a mediocre 249-1-1 line. The #3 defense so far, Baltimore has held opposing quarterbacks in check this season, allowing just 10.5 fantasy PPG. The run game will be focal point, which doesn't inspire hope that Carr will put up top 10 QB numbers. He may not come out with a negative turnover margin, but I'm not seeing 3+ TD either.

Latavius Murray (RB, OAK) - Murray has been efficient in limited time, scoring three TD and totaling 153 rushing yards on just 32 carries for a 4.8 average. Unfortunately, that limited time is a result of the three-headed committee unexpectedly forming in Oakland. Two rookies are cutting into Murray's carries and it doesn't show any signs of slowing. Baltimore has allowed only two rushing TD and one run over 20 yards this season, so chances of busting a big play aren't too great.

Notable Players

Mike Wallace (WR, BAL) - He put up huge numbers against Cleveland then nothing against Jacksonville. Go figure. The Raiders allowed seven passing TD in the first two games, then none last week. What will give in Week 4? A pair of Raiders corners (Sean Smith and David Amerson) graded out as the tops in their position last week according to Pro Football Focus. It seems the Raiders' D is playing closer to their potential now, making Wallace a risky proposition.

 

Titans @ Texans - Sunday 10/2 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love

DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN) - The Texans are only in the middle of the pack against RB this season, so nothing about this matchup should scare away fantasy owners. Murray has been a revelation since his escape from Philadelphia, racking up 245 rushing yards and 132 receiving yards. PPR owners should be pleased with his 17 receptions, tops among all running backs. Play him with confidence.

Will Fuller (WR, HOU) - The speedy rookie put up two 100-yd efforts at home to start the season, then laid an egg along with the whole team on Thursday night in New England. Fortunately, the Texans are back at home and will have an easier time against Tennessee. The Titans have been fairly stout against the pass, but all Fuller needs is one big play to cash in for fantasy owners. He's worth the upside this week.

Matchups We Hate

Lamar Miller (RB, HOU) - Miller is fourth in rushing yards this season and gets a home matchup against Tennessee this weekend. Sounds tempting, but look deeper and his yardage has mainly come as a result of high volume. Miller has carried the ball more times (74) than any other running back aside from LeGarrette Blount (75). He is averaging just 3.6 Y/A, hasn't broken a run longer than 15 yards and is yet to cross the goal-line. Add in the fact that the Titans have been pretty good against the run under Dick LeBeau, limiting RB to 12.9 fantasy PPG and this could be another letdown. Yes, you still need to start him because of his big play potential, but if you're expecting a breakout performance this week, you could be disappointed.

Notable Players

Marcus Mariota (QB, TEN) - Life got a lot easier for Mariota when news broke that J.J. Watt wouldn't be around for this matchup. The Texans will need to find ways to compensate for the elite pass-rusher, but still boast a tough defense. Mariota hasn't done much to deserve starting consideration either, especially after being held out of the end zone against a Raiders defense that looked porous in the first two games. Keep Mariota benched until he shows signs that he is developing into the type of QB everyone expects.

 

Seahawks @ Jets - Sunday 10/2 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Matt Forte (RB, NYJ) - Consider last week's debacle a lesson learned for Todd Bowles. Forte touched the ball 27 times in a one-point loss in Week 1, then 32 times in a Week 2 victory. That number dropped to 17 last week and the Jets relied on the arm of Ryan Fitzpatrick instead. We all know how that turned out. Seattle does boast the top-ranked defense in terms of total yards allowed, so don't expect another 100-yard, three TD day. Still, Forte should be a solid RB2 and should see his involvement in the pass game jump up.

Matchups We Hate

Christine Michael (RB, SEA) - In three games, he has already surpassed his season-high for rushing yards with 232, including an impressive 5.2 Y/A. The Jets come into Week 4 with the 4th toughest run defense statistically this season and have as strong a front seven as anyone outside Denver. Russell Wilson is a warrior, but he won't provide much relief in the pass game if he's nursing two injuries simultaneously. Remember the first two weeks when Michael ran for 66 and 60 yards with no scores? Expect something closer to that.

Brandon Marshall (WR, NYJ) - Eric Decker's status for Sunday is looking increasingly shaky. Marshall may see more targets, but not necessarily more receptions. Seattle still has one of the best defenses in the league, Richard Sherman is still on top of his game and the team has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to WR so far. Don't forget that Marshall has been listed on the injury report himself since last week. Expect the Jets to lean on their running game and defense in this one.

Jimmy Graham (TE, SEA) - Graham busted out with a 100-yard game last week, which was a welcome sight for fantasy owners and Seahawks fan. For similar reasons mentioned above with Christine Michael, this could be a low-scoring game, especially on the Seattle side. Russell Wilson may trot out there once again, but he's obviously not 100%. The Jets were shredded by Travis Kelce, which might lead some to expect similar results from Graham. Keep in mind, Graham is still recovering from patellar tendon surgery. He admitted to John Clayton just days ago that he is "still not 100%" yet and it will be a long road back to reaching that performance level. His prospects for the rest of the season are trending upward, but not this week.

Notable Players

Russell Wilson (QB, SEA) - As mentioned above, Wilson is recovering from an MCL sprain a week after tweaking his ankle. He seems hell-bent on starting, but may not be much of a factor against a tough Jets defense. In shallow leagues, you may be better off rolling with another QB.