October 1, 2016

Ben Ruppert's Week Three fantasy football matchups analysis (part 2) for the 2016 NFL season. Starts and sits for fantasy football lineups based on matchups.

What's up RotoBallers. Below you will find part two of our Week 4 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Ben Ruppert breaks down the second half of the Week 4 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part one of this week's matchups analysis by Pierre Camus (@pfunk00).

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

Editor's Note: Be sure to check out FantasyAces DFS contests. New users that sign up on Fantasy Aces and make a $20 deposit will receive RotoBaller's full season NFL Premium Pass for free (including Premium DFS), normally a $59.99 value. Expert DFS research, sample lineups, matchup ratings and lots more!

Week 3 Recap

Greatest Hits: Christine Michael (RB, SEA), Mike Evans (WR, TB), Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)

Christine Michael dominated the San Fransisco 49ers last week, rushing for over 100 yards and a TD. Even with Russell Wilson struggling, it looks like they will be able to lean on Michael to get the job done. Mike Evans continues to receive a ton of targets in this offense, getting 13 last week giving him 37 on the season (second behind Antonio Brown). Ezekiel Elliott had easily his best pro game, rushing for 140 yards. He missed out on a score, but things are looking extremely bright for the young RB.

Greatest Misses: DeAngelo Williams (RB, PIT), Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA), Carlos Hyde (RB, SF)

DeAngelo Williams put up a major bust last week, just in time for Le’Veon Bell to get back and take over. Williams still has value as one of if not the top handcuff in the league. I said I loved Tyler Lockett last week…. Whoops. He went out there and didn’t record one catch. A popular breakout candidate coming into the season, he is someone to drop or place firmly on your bench until he shows signs of life in that offense. Carlos Hyde was able to find some running room against the stout Seattle defense last week, rushing for 103 yards and two scores (averaged 4.9 YPC). I did not think he would be able to perform like that, and was clearly proven wrong.

Matchup Analysis for NFL Week 4

Bills @ Patriots - Sunday 10/2 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

LeSean McCoy (RB, BUF)

With Sammy Watkins officially ruled out for this week's action, the Bills will once again lean on McCoy for solid production. He has done well so far in 2016 while averaging 20 touches per game, and is coming off his best game of the season. Against the Arizona Cardinals he was able to rush for 110 yards and two scores on 17 carries. Lamar Miller and David Johnson have been able to find success against this defense; I expect the same for Shady this week. He is the only Bills player I would play confidently each week.

Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE)

Rob Gronkowski put up a dud last week, but he is so good that if he’s healthy, you’re playing him. He has been limited in practice this week but is expected to play in this one. Gronk has dominated the Bills in his career; over nine games played he has scored 10 TDs (the most he has scored against one team), while averaging five catches for 77 yards. No matter who the Patriots play at QB, it’s not difficult to locate the massive TE running routes on the field. Expect Gronk to have a big bounce-back week, especially if Jimmy Garoppolo can play.

LeGarrette Blount (RB, NE)

LeGarrette Blount has given the Patriots exactly what they needed while Tim Brady is out; solid, consistent RB play. So far this season, Blount has averaged 25 carries for 99 yards and a TD per game for New England. The Bills are still without All-Pro defensive lineman Marcel Dareus, so there will be holes for Blount to hit once again this week. Buffalo has allowed Matt Forte and David Johnson to run rampant on them over the past two weeks. Blount is in line to have another great game, complete with a TD or two.

Matchups We Hate

Tyrod Taylor (QB, BUF)

Although his stats don’t necessarily show it, Tyrod Taylor and the Bills offense looked much better in Week 3 under new OC Anthony Lynn. Taylor threw for only 119 yards and an INT, but was able to scramble and rush for 76 yards and a score. However, the Patriots defense hasn’t made things easy on opposing QBs all season. Last week they completely shut down Brock Osweiler and the Texans. Taylor will be able to use his legs again to gain yards, but I don’t see him putting up big passing numbers if the Pats D is able to take away the deep pass again.

Notable Players

Charles Clay (TE, BUF)

With Watkins inactive, it should be Charles Clay’s time to shine. Granted, this is what we all thought last week, but this week it’s different. Last season, after games when Clay was held to one catch (happened three times, excluding the last game of the regular season), he averaged six catches for 48 yards. Respectable numbers from the TE spot. He still makes for a risky play Week 4, but Clay has some potential if you are in a tough spot with the TE position. With the Bills likely having to throw to keep up, Clay should bounce back this week.

Julian Edelman (WR, NE)

The only thing really holding me back from loving Edelman this week is that we don’t know who will be playing QB. With Garoppolo at the helm for Week 1 and 2, Edelman averaged seven catches for 71 yards. In Week 3 with Jacoby Brissett, he caught only four passes for 38 yards. Edelman will see his value skyrocket with the return of Tom Brady, but if Brissett is leading the charge again he makes for a bit of a risky play.

Browns @ Redskins - Sunday 10/2 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Jamison Crowder (WR, WAS)

Jamison Crowder has quickly become the favorite target of QB Kirk Cousins. Through the first three weeks of the season it is Crowder who has been the most targeted receiver in the offense, after being heavily out-targeted by Jordan Reed and Pierre Garcon last season. Crowder has averaged just over five catches and 58 yards per game, while scoring a TD in two of three contests. Crowder will undoubtedly catch a ton of passes in this one with the number of targets he gets. He is a great play in PPR formats.

Jordan Reed (TE, WAS)

Jordan Reed has underwhelmed to start the 2016 season, mainly because of where he was drafted by many owners. Through three games Reed has averaged five catches for 63 yards per game, with zero scores to show for it. Luckily for Reed, he enters a great matchup with the Browns this week. Cleveland allowed Zach Ertz to have a solid game in Week 1, and Dennis Pitta went rogue on them in Week 2 catching nine balls for 102 yards. Expect Reed to have his best game of the season so far.

Isaiah Crowell (RB, CLE)

Isaiah Crowell may not get the high number of carries some of the better backs in the league receive, but the ones he does get he has done well with this season. He is averaging 6.1 YPC over the first three games with two TDs. The Redskins have not done well against the rush this season, allowing the second most fantasy points to the RB position in the league behind only the New Orleans Saints. Crowell will have no trouble keeping the good things rolling in Week 4.

Matchups We Hate

Matt Jones (RB, WAS)

The Cleveland Browns have had a middling rush defense so far in 2016. However, Matt Jones has been equally middling through three weeks. He is only averaging 12 rushes for 50 yards per game, while ceding work to Chris Thompson and Robert Kelley. Jones has yet to show that big, game breaking ability he flashed last season. The Redskins are one of the highest passing percentage teams in the league, meaning the window for Jones to have a big game is only cracked open.

Notable Players

Terrelle Pryor (WR, CLE)

Terrelle Pryor showed he can literally do it all last week. Pryor caught eight passes for 144 yards, rushed four times for 21 yards and a score, and threw for 35 yards passing. The ultimate Swiss army knife was so impressive, that this week he will have the pleasure of being shadowed by top CB Josh Norman. Pryor has come out and said he isn’t worried about the matchup, but Norman is one of the best CBs in the league. This matchup, at least on the receiving end, will be a tough one for Pryor to take advantage of.

DeSean Jackson (WR, WAS)

DeSean Jackson has been solid for the Redskins this season, catching 14 passes for 238 yards and a TD through three games. Jackson has the ability to take the top off the defense at any time with his game breaking speed. However, I expect this game to lean more towards Reed than in previous weeks, meaning less targets/receptions to go around. Jackson is a fine play in this matchup, but I would expect a stat line closer to what he did in Week 2 against the Cowboys.

Broncos @ Buccaneers - Sunday 10/2 @ 4:05 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders (WR, DEN)

Last week against a legit Bengals passing defense, Marcus Siemian was able to connect with his favoirte receivers, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, a combined 15 times. The dynamic duo each went over 100 yards with three combined TDs (two for Sanders, one for DT). This week they face a defense that has been solid against the rush this season, holding opposing RBs to only 3.3 YPC. Look for Siemian to find success through the air once again this week, meaning a healthy dose of targets for each of his two receiving threats.

Charles Sims (RB, TB)

Even though Charles Sims only rushed 13 times last week, he still proved he is more than capable of handling a starters’ workload. He ran for 52 yards (4.2 YPC), and also caught six passes for 69 yards. This week he faces a Broncos defense that has been susceptible to the run this season. Last week the Bengals were able to use both of their backs to find space on the ground and through the air, and in Week 2 Frank Gore was able to rush and receive his way to a successful fantasy day. It may be tough for Jameis Winston to get much going through the air, so look for him to lean on Sims to gain yards on the ground and with short passes.

Matchups We Hate

Jameis Winston (QB, TB)

While the rushing defense of the Broncos has some holes, their passing defense does not. This unit through three weeks has shut down opposing QBs, holding them to under 200 yards passing per game on average. They have 12 sacks total, and one INT in every game so far. Winston had troubles against a tough Cardinals secondary in Week 2, and this Broncos secondary is capable of causing Winston even more troubles. He will need to pass to keep up in this one, but the results won’t be pretty.

Notable Players

C.J. Anderson (RB, DEN)

After two solid weeks from C.J. Anderson, he ran into a brick wall against the Bengals last week. He was only able to rush for 37 yards on 14 carries (2.6 avg.) while hauling in one pass for four yards. In Week 1 he found success against the Panthers defense, so last week could be labeled an off week for the young RB. However, this week he faces the Buccaneers defense which has been stingy against the run so far in 2016. Like last week, if the rushing attack isn’t there look for the Broncos to turn to the passing game. Anderson is better than what we saw last week, but like any RB he may have troubles against a tough defense, especially since he isn’t too involved in the passing game.

Mike Evans (WR, TB)

The Broncos passing defense is one of the best in the league. However, there are three things keeping Mike Evans from my hate list for this week: 1) His ability. Mike Evans has been one of the best receivers in the league this season, start him no matter what. 2) His size. At 6’5” 231 lbs., Evans is a physical freak. No cornerback in the league can properly match up with Evans, and even with double coverage his size makes him an extremely difficult matchup. 3) His targets. Evans is second in the league in targets to only Antonio Brown, so even if he faces a difficult matchup the volume will still be there for him making a productive day possible. I would keep expectations in check, but Evans still has the potential to put up a good fantasy day.

Rams @ Cardinals - Sunday 10/2 @ 4:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love

David Johnson (RB, ARI)

David Johnson can do it all. He can rush, receive passes, and is an excellent blocker. He has done well against every opponent he has faced so far, and draws a Rams defense this week that has been very susceptible to the run this season. They have allowed opposing backs to average 4.4 YPC and a TD per game. Last week receiving back Charles Sims torched them for 69 receiving yards on six catches. Johnson is capable of doing all of this and more, so look for him to continue his excellent play this week.

Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI)

Larry Fitzgerald has been the only consistent member of the Cardinals excellent WR corps. Fitz has per game averages of seven catches for 73 yards and a TD while catching mostly short to intermediate passes. The Rams this season have not been good against slot receivers, allowing Jeremy Kerley (Week 1) and Adam Humphries (Week 3) to have their best games of the season. Fitz is clearly immensely more talented than those two WRs, so expect more of the same if not better in Week 4 from Fitzgerald.

Matchups We Hate

John Brown (WR, ARI)

John Brown finally welcomed himself to the 2016 season last week, leading the Cardinals in receiving yards catching six passes for 70 yards against the Bills. However, there are still some reasons to be worried about the young WR moving forward. He only played in 47-of-82 offensive snaps for the Cardinals (57%), which was well behind the rates posted by Larry Fitzgerald (98%) and Michael Floyd (90%). Brown did most of his receiving damage halfway through the third quarter and onwards, when the Cardinals were in catchup-up mode. I don’t expect the Cardinals to be trailing, so with a limited snap count Brown will have little chance to put up numbers.

Todd Gurley (RB, LA)

Gurley had a nice week for fantasy owners in Week 3, rushing a whopping 27 times (second highest total in Week 3 behind Ezekiel Elliott’s 30) and finding the endzone twice. Unfortunately, with all of those attempts he was only able to gain 85 yards (3.1 avg.), leaving his YPC at an ugly 2.9 so far this season. The lack of a passing attack is really hurting Gurley, who is having a very difficult time finding any running room. I expect the Cardinals to take this game handily, meaning the number of rushing attempts will be limited for Gurley. If he can only do little with the attempts he does get, we won’t see much success once again for him this week.

Notable Players

Carson Palmer (QB, ARI)

Carson Palmer looked lost against the Bills secondary last week. He was never able to get anything going through the air, and ended the day with a 52% completion percentage, zero TDs, and four INTs. This was a big regression from Week 2 when the Cardinals totally dominated the Buccaneers in all aspects of the game. The Rams defense is one you can take advantage of, but the inconsistent QB play from Palmer early in the season leaves fantasy owners confused on how to handle him. It remains to be seen which version of Palmer shows up this Sunday.

Tavon Austin (WR, LA)

Tavon Austin has led the Rams in targets all season long, and finally put together a decent game last week. He caught five passes on eight targets for 82 yards and his first TD of the season. Austin is coming off of the best year of his career last season, and as the top receiver on the team he will be targeted often moving forward. The Rams will need to pass plenty to keep up in this one. What keeps me from loving him this week is that with his 29 targets on the season, he has only hauled in 14 passes for 145 yards. Austin is a risky play, but if he can find some consistency he can be someone to flex every week.

Saints @ Chargers - Sunday 10/2 @ 4:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Michael Thomas (WR, NO)

With Brandin Cooks drawing the coverage of top CB Jason Verrett and Willie Snead still hobbled by a toe injury, rookie WR Michael Thomas will have an excellent chance to build off of his Week 3 totals. In a shootout last week against a weak defense, Thomas caught seven passes for 78 yards including a three yard TD in the second quarter. All season long Thomas has had consistent production, averaging six catches for 62 yards per game. Against another weak secondary, Thomas should have plenty of room to operate even if QB Drew Brees spreads the ball around like he normally does. He is a great play this week.

Mark Ingram (RB, NO)

Mark Ingram was able find some running room last week against the Falcons, rushing 15 times for 77 yards (5.1 avg.), while also catching four passes for 30 yards and a score. It was the highest number of rushing attempts he has had in a game all season. He is averaging 4.6 YPC this season, so the only problems Ingram has faced is a lack of touches and TDs. The Chargers, like the Falcons (though not AS bad as the Falcons), have struggled against the run. They were able to limit the Jaguars, but their offense has been the polar opposite of the Saints to this point. Ingram will make the most of his chances against the Chargers.

Drew Brees (QB, NO)

Drew Brees goes up against his former team this week in San Diego. Brees was spectacular last week against the Falcons, throwing for 376 yards and three scores. While Brees does not fair as well on the road as he does at home, he has done very well against the Chargers since he’s left. Over two games against them, Brees has thrown seven TDs while completing 69% of his passes, while averaging 355 yards per game against them. Brees has said before that these games mean “a little bit more” to him, and the results show it.

Travis Benjamin (WR, SD)

Travis Benjamin has become the de facto WR1 in this offense, and has done well with the role so far. Last week Benjamin reeled in four passes for 82 yards, including a long 43 yard reception. Benjamin is capable of catching passes all over the field, and uses his speed to rip off big gains. He will need to put a cap on his fumbling issue (fumbled twice last week, lost one), but otherwise will be a solid start this week against a Saints secondary with plenty of holes.

Tyrell Williams (WR, SD)

Tyrell Williams has been thrust into a big role in this offense with all of the injuries to the offense. Operating as the number two receiver, Rivers will look his way often while the Chargers pass to keep up with the potent Saints passing attack. Williams has averaged 65 yards receiving over the past two weeks, and saw his production rise from Week 2 to 3. Expect another rise in production this week from Williams as he becomes more acclimated in the offense.

Melvin Gordon (RB, SD)

Gordon had a difficult time last week getting anything going on the ground against a weak Colts defense, rushing 16 times for 35 yards. Good thing for Gordon and fantasy owners, he is heavily involved in the passing game with the loss of Danny Woodhead. He hauled in four passes for 43 yards. Last week the Saints were ripped apart on the ground and through the air by the combination of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, something Gordon will look to do this week. In a game where the Chargers will need to pass to keep up, expect Gordon to be involved heavily once again.

Matchups We Hate

Willie Snead (WR, NO)

Snead has proven to be one of Brees’ favorite targets while healthy. During Weeks 1 and 2, Snead caught 14 passes for 226 yards and two TDs. He missed last week’s game while dealing with a toe injury, and has been limited at practice this week. Even if he does suit up, his production could be capped due to the injury and the emergence of other targets like Michael Thomas and Brandon Coleman, whom Brees looked comfortable throwing to last week. Snead is a risk this week, but once fully healthy should go back to being an every week start in this offense.

Notable Players

Coby Fleener (TE, NO)

Coby Fleener had his first good game of the season last week, as the chemistry between Brees and himself continues to blossom. Last week Fleener caught seven of 11 targets for 109 yards and a score; the type of production we thought we would get when we drafted him. This matchup is a great one for Fleener, as the Chargers have allowed the sixth most points this season to the TE position. However, I would like to see this connection string together good performances multiple weeks before you fire up Fleener every week. He is a good start, but carries some risk.

Philip Rivers (QB, SD)

This game is a dream matchup for Philip Rivers owners, but the loss of key offensive weapons has hurt his production this season. Last week on the road in Indianapolis, he threw for 326 yards but no touchdowns. In Week 2 he threw for four of his five TDs against a weak Jaguars defense. This week he draws the Saints, who were successful in limiting Matt Ryan to only an OK game last week (while being blasted by the running game). I like Rivers in this matchup, but I don’t LOVE him.

Cowboys @ 49ers - Sunday 10/2 @ 4:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)

Ezekiel Elliott is coming off his best game as a pro, rushing 30 times for 140 yards against the Chicago Bears. This week they travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers. The 49ers have allowed 122.7 yards per game on the ground this season, including a 106 yard performance from Christine Michael last week. With Dez Bryant out of the picture, the Cowboys will lean even heavier on Elliott to be a major contributor on offense.

Cole Beasley (WR, DAL)

Speaking of missing Dez Bryant, look for more targets to go the way of Cole Beasley. Beasley has seen his yardage totals rise every year he has been in the league, and with the way things are trending this season expect the same. Beasley is a PPR gold mine, but this week he can be fired up in all formats.

Carlos Hyde (RB, SF)

Carlos Hyde was able to tear through the stout Seahawks defense last week, rushing 21 times for 103 yards and two TDs. This week he has a much easier task against the Cowboys, who in their own right have not been bad against the run, but any defense compared to the Seahawks doesn’t seem as intimidating. As the main offensive weapon in the offense, look for Hyde to get plenty of chances to carry the load in Week 4.

Matchups We Hate

Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)

Dak Prescott just lost his top receiving target in Dez Bryant for the next few weeks. Prescott has done a good job at limiting mistakes so far in his rookie season, but hasn’t done much damage through the air averaging 256 yards per game with only one passing score. The 49ers were able to limit Russell Wilson and Cam Newton’s ability to run the ball, so expect Prescott to have to throw his way to a win, which I am not sure he is capable of doing. We will see a heavy dose of Elliott, leaving little for Prescott.

Notable Players

Jason Witten (TE, DAL)

Jason Witten will continue to be a reliable target for Prescott, and will benefit from the loss of Bryant. Witten has seen his receptions drop each week this season, but expect a big rise this week from the two catches he totaled last week. Witten is a tough play in standard leagues with his main attribute being the amount of passes he catches, so temper expectations there. Fire up Witten in PPR formats this week.

Chiefs @ Steelers - Sunday 10/2 @ 8:30 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Antonio Brown (WR, PIT)

Even against stud CB Marcus Peters, Antonio Brown will find his space in Week 3. Even when Big Ben was struggling to get things going last week, Brown was still after to be wildly productive catching 12 passes for 140 yards (54% of Roethlisberger’s total passing yards). Expect a large number of passes thrown his way once again in Week 4. The Steelers are a much better team at home compared to on the road.

Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)

Big Ben had a rough outing Week 3. The offense struggled to get anything going in the air or on the ground. Roethlisberger completed only 24-of-44 passes for 257 yards and an INT, as the Steelers got down early and were never able to recover. The Steelers are markedly better at home compared to on the road, so expect a big improvement for the offense overall even with a tough matchup on their plate.

Matchups We Hate

Jeremy Maclin (WR, KC)

The Steelers have held opposing WR1s to extremely limited production so far this season. Jordan Matthews and A.J. Green over the past two weeks have combined for four catches for 57 yards. This week Jeremy Maclin comes to town, and with the limitations of QB Alex Smith this could be another rough outing for Maclin, who caught only four passes for 35 yards last week. Sit Maclin if you can, and if not, keep expectations extremely low.

Notable Players

Spencer Ware/Jamaal Charles (RB, KC)

It is unclear at this point whether or not Jamaal Charles will play this week, or if we will have the Spencer Ware show at RB once again. If they both play they will be a RBBC for Charles’ first week back. If he sits once again, then Ware could be in line for a big game. The Steelers have allowed the fifth most fantasy points against the RB position so far in 2016, meaning that even if they both play there could be enough production to go around.

Le’Veon Bell (RB, PIT)

In his first game back from suspension, Bell immediately takes over the bell cow role in this offense. Unfortunately, he will be pitted up against a tough KC defense who just held Matt Forte to 65 yards rushing on 15 attempts. Bell should be immediately ready to roll and is a definite start this week, but I do not love the matchup he draws. Bell has a great shot at a TD and even a two-point conversion attempt if the Steelers can cross the plane in this one.