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Week 13 brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mitch Trubisky, Derrius Guice, Tyler Higbee, and more.
In Week 13, several of the highest-scoring quarterbacks were guys who have been disappointing as of late. Carson Wentz has been struggling because his wide receivers have been injured, but he finally got Alshon Jeffery back and made the best of a good matchup against the Dolphins Defense to finish as the No. 4 quarterback on the week. Jared Goff has been harassed by opposing pass rushes as of late but he was able to shred a Cardinals Defense which gives up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks for 424 yards and two touchdowns finishing as the No. 6 quarterback in Week 13. Lamar Jackson finished as a low-end QB1 on the week which is not typical for him, but it actually isn't too bad considering the fact that he played against the 49ers Defense which gives up the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
There were 68 points scored between the Eagles and Dolphins on Sunday and as a result, Devante Parker and Alshon Jeffery finished as the top two receivers on the week. Kenny Golladay had a strong showing even though he had David Blough throwing him the ball and Davante Adams did what we expected him to do against the Giants Defense finishing with 21.4 PPR points. At tight end, Tyler Higbee, who is normally known for his blocking abilities, caught seven balls for 107 yards and a touchdown against a Cardinals defense that gives up the most fantasy points to tight ends, finishing No. 1 on the week. Mike Gesicki came through with five catches, 79 yards, and a touchdown in the shootout against the Eagles, while Jack Doyle saw 11 targets with Eric Ebron out of the lineup, rounding out the top-three at the position.
The running back position seemed to be rather chaotic in Week 13. James White finished as the No. 1 running back on the week, catching eight balls, mostly in garbage-time, ending up with a total of 22 touches for 177 yards and two touchdowns. Miles Sanders finally took advantage of an increased workload with Jordan Howard out of the lineup and scored, finishing in the top five at the position. After a hiccup in Week 12 against the 49ers, Todd Gurley had the ball fed to him 19 times, adding one catch, for 115 total yards and a touchdown. Saquon Barkley was widely expected to come through against a Packers Defense that had been giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs and he came up rather small, rushing for just 83 yards on 19 carries. Last week is now in the rearview mirror, and now we need to look ahead and evaluate how to move forward to Week 14.
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Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, MIA)
Week 13 Stats: 27-of-39, 365 yards, 3 TD, 2 PT
The Miami Dolphins absolutely shredded the Philadelphia Eagles Defense through the air in Week 13. No matter where Devante Parker lined up for the Dolphins he had an advantage against the Eagles secondary. Parker had a size mismatch on Ronald Darby and he was much quicker than Jalen Mills. Fitzpatrick exploited both Eagles cornerbacks all day throwing it up to Parker 10 times who proceeded to catch seven of his 10 targets for a whopping 159 yards and two touchdowns.
Bottom Line: Fitzpatrick is a decent streaming option as long as the weather and matchup are good. Historically, the Dolphins perform poorly when temperatures fall below 45 degrees, so keep that in mind.
Mitch Trubisky (QB, CHI)
Week 13 Stats: 29-of-38, 338 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
The Lions Defense was banged up on Thanksgiving day, most notably missing Damon Harrison while many others were playing injured. With Harrison out of the lineup, the Bears were able to run the ball somewhat effectively and the Lions were unable to match up well with Anthony Miller who had a huge day.
Bottom Line: Trubisky can only be trusted if the matchup is great. The Lions had been giving up the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and they had injury problems which set Trubisky up extremely well for success. The Bears play Dallas in Week 14 so you should probably look for other options at quarterback outside of two-quarterback leagues.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Week 13 Stats: 15-of-29, 175 yards, 1 TD, 3 carries, 25 yards, 1 TD
The Chiefs Defense scored on an interception return and didn't allow Oakland to score until very late in the game. Mahomes didn't play much of the fourth quarter and Darwin Thompson actually handled most of the carries at the end of the game. When Tyreek Hill did catch the ball, he looked fantastic, and if the Chiefs needed to throw more, both Hill and Mahomes could have had a huge day. All that being said, Mahomes still finished the week as a low-end QB1.
Bottom Line: The Chiefs defense performed very well in Week 13 and absolutely embarrassed the Raiders. Mahomes' relatively low output was due to lack of volume, so don't read into his Week 13 performance.
Allen Lazard (WR, GB)
Week 13 Stats: 3 targets, 3 catches, 103 yards, 1 TD
Allen Lazard went off for 103 yards in Week 13 but he did so on just three targets while playing just 55.2% of the snaps. On Lazard's first two catches he was able to get behind the entire Giants secondary and if Rodgers hit him in stride on the first target, he would have walked in for another touchdown. On Lazard's third catch there wasn't a Giants defender within five yards of him when he caught the ball but the secondary converged on him almost immediately and he went down after a decent gain.
Bottom Line: The Giants Defense is getting absolutely hammered by wide receivers this year and it should be a matchup you look to exploit into the fantasy playoffs. Don't chase Lazard's points because he's not playing enough snaps to be consistently viable.
Derrius Guice (RB, WAS)
Week 13 Stats: 10 carries, 129 yards, 2 TD, 3 targets, 2 catches, 8 yards
Most of Derrius Guice's 129 yards came on two long runs where he gained significant yardage after contact. Guice played just 29.2% of the snaps compared to 35.9% for Adrian Peterson and 35.9% for Chris Thompson. Although Guice ranked third on the Redskins backfield in snaps, he did get goal-line carries, converting two of them.
Bottom Line: Guice is explosive and looks really good when he has the ball, but until he starts playing more snaps and carrying the ball more, he will be hard to trust.
Raheem Mostert (RB, SF)
Week 13 Stats: 19 carries, 146 yards, 1 TD, 2 targets, 2 catches, 8 yards
Tevin Coleman played just 17.5% of the 49ers' snaps and touched the ball a mere six times, gaining 15 scoreless yards. Raheem Mostert was the hot hand in the San Francisco backfield in Week 13, playing on 73.7% of the snaps.
Bottom Line: The 49ers backfield situation is really hard to manage and you should only rely on a San Francisco running back if you are struggling at the position. Matt Breida should return to action in Week 14 which will only complicate things further.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
Week 13 Stats: 8 targets, 7 catches, 107 yards, 1 TD
Gerald Everett was out of the lineup for the Rams which led to an increase in usage for Higbee. When you couple the increased workload with the fact that every tight end goes off against the Cardinals Defense you shouldn't be surprised that this happened.
Bottom Line: Higbee cannot be trusted unless the matchup is great and Gerald Everett is out of the lineup.
OJ Howard (TE, TB)
Week 13 Stats: 6 targets, 5 catches, 61 yards
OJ Howard looked great in Week 13 against the Jaguars, making several contested catches. The Jaguars Defense seemed intent on shutting down Chris Godwin and Mike Evans and Howard was able to take advantage of the situation.
Bottom Line: Howard has looked good in spots this season, but he usually follows it up with a bad performance. Howard is worth consideration if you're desperate, but can only be considered to be, at best, a top 20 option.
Ian Thomas (TE, CAR)
Week 13 Stats: 4 targets, 4 catches, 24 yards
Greg Olsen took a nasty shot to the head towards the end of the Panthers' Week 13 game against the Redskins and in his place Ian Thomas was immediately involved in the passing game.
Bottom Line: If Greg Olsen misses time due to injury, Ian Thomas is likely to pick up right where Olsen left off and should be considered a top 15 tight end.
