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Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for the Week 1 (September 2023) Main Slate. His top daily fantasy football lineups to target for DraftKings DFS contests.
Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to our weekly DraftKings NFL DFS article! If you read this article last year then you know what we're about here, but if you are a new reader, let me quickly summarize our goals with this article. We'll spend each week discussing a few NFL DFS plays at each position for the DraftKings main slate. I'll highlight my favorite players and break down my reasoning behind them in an attempt to help you succeed with your own DraftKings lineups.
Opening up the Week 1 salary scale on DraftKings is always like saying hello to an old friend that you haven't seen in a while. There might be a tiny bit of awkwardness initially, but before long, you fall into old rhythms and are right back in the groove. As a bonus, the Week 1 slate is always crammed full of excited, casual NFL DFS players that DraftKings wants to feel welcome, which means that pricing for the season-opening slate is the softest we'll see all year.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected DK points and ownership, overall upside/talent levels, and opportunity, as well as factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available on DK for Week 1. Also, be sure to check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups – let's dominate this slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Week 1 DFS Picks
Justin Herbert - MIA @ LAC ($6,900)
There are lots of reasons to be optimistic about Justin Herbert this season. After battling through the bulk of 2022 with an injury and being held back by then-Chargers offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi's dink-and-dunk scheme, Herbert enters the 2023 campaign fully healthy and with new hire Kellen Moore at the helm of the Chargers offense. Moore should now allow Herbert to capitalize on his tremendous arm strength and elite down-field passing ability.
We’re going to be seeing a lot more of Justin Herbert slinging the ball deep under #Chargers OC Kellen Moore.
Not only will this be a big season for Herbert, but also for the WR corps.
The league isn’t ready. #BoltUp pic.twitter.com/CqKh1V18UF
— Chargers Central (@BoltCentral) September 1, 2023
In addition to his long-term prospects this season, a Week 1 matchup with the Miami Dolphins also sets up well for Herbert. This game environment possesses both a tight point spread and a high projected point total, as well as a matchup of two explosive and highly competent offenses. It all adds up to fantasy goodness for Herbert and a fast-paced L.A. unit that led the NFL last season in plays per game and will face a Dolphins secondary that will be without Jalen Ramsey.
Anthony Richardson - JAX @ IND ($5,600)
A rookie NFL quarterback making his first pro start can always be described as a hit-and-miss proposition. That feels like an understatement for Indy's rookie signal-caller Anthony Richardson, who only totaled 13 career starts at the University of Florida and is widely considered to be the "rawest" of the quarterbacks selected at the top of the 2023 NFL Draft. Despite those obstacles, I believe Richardson has a much higher DFS floor than most are giving him credit for thanks to his freakish athleticism and rushing ability.
It's easy to envision him being inconsistent and erratic, though it's also tough to see him not finding at least a moderate amount of success on the ground with upside for much more if he gets things going through the air. Richardson is one of my favorite price-considered plays on this Week 1 slate, as his dual-threat potential gives him DFS upside that's hard to find with regularity at this price point.
DraftKings Running Backs - Week 1 DFS Picks
Aaron Jones - GB @ CHI ($6,300)
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has always had conservative, run-first tendencies. That philosophy was present even with Aaron Rodgers under center in Green Bay and I look for it to increase exponentially - at least initially - with Jordan Love now taking the snaps under center in 2023.
We can expect LaFleur to ease Love into things by leaning on Aaron Jones and the ground game, especially with two of the Packers starting wideouts - Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs - currently looking questionable with injuries. It makes lots of sense for LaFleur and company to stick to the ground attack, considering Green Bay's Week 1 opponent - the Chicago Bears - was destroyed by opposing running backs last season, allowing the second-most RB fantasy points in the NFL in 2022.
Jordan Love ➡️ Aaron Jones
— NFL on DAZN (@NFLonDAZN) September 1, 2023
While Chicago has made moves to improve their offense during the offseason, the Bears have done little to upgrade their defense ahead of 2023. Jones has proven himself to be a dynamic back who can succeed both on the ground and through the air. He logged a career-high 1,121 rushing yards while hauling in 59 receptions in 2022.
Miles Sanders - CAR @ ATL ($5,600)
I'll be the first to admit that Miles Sanders routinely burned me in DFS last year as a member of the Philadelphia Eagles. Despite that (painful) history, I'm willing to open the 2023 season by hopping right back on the Sanders train.
Why? Well, Sanders signed a huge free-agent deal with the Carolina Panthers during the offseason, and instead of dealing with losing carries and precious goal-line opportunities to the likes of Jalen Hurts, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott such as we saw last year in Philly, Sanders will be the undisputed main man in the backfield for Carolina.
With rookie QB Bryce Young under center for the Panthers, we can expect Sanders to handle a large workload on the ground and I look for him to be utilized as a receiver at a higher clip than he ever was as an Eagle. He draws an Atlanta squad that finished the 2022 season ranked 29th in the NFL in Run Defense DVOA.
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DraftKings Wide Receivers - Week 1 DFS Picks
Justin Jefferson - TB @ MIN ($8,800)
The soft Week 1 pricing on DraftKings allows us some flexibility to spend up. I'll be using that salary to target Justin Jefferson at the wide receiver position. The consensus No. 1 overall pick in season-long fantasy formats, Jefferson is also an impactful and elite DFS weapon that led all WRs in DraftKings points scored in 2022.
Justin Jefferson needs 176 yards Week 1 to become the fastest player to reach 5,000 career receiving yards, surpassing Lance Alworth.
If Jefferson breaks the record Week 2, he will tie Alworth’s record.
If Jefferson breaks the record Week 3, he becomes the 2nd fastest. pic.twitter.com/h3WutGH92j
— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) September 2, 2023
Jefferson is the centerpiece of a concentrated and pass-heavy offense. In head coach Kevin O'Connell's first year at the helm in 2022, the Vikings were one of the NFL's most pass-happy teams, finishing the season third in the league in pass attempts. While Tampa Bay was a middling secondary unit last season, Jefferson will have ample opportunities to carve up the Bucs in Week 1.
Deebo Samuel - SF @ PIT ($5,500)
After a disappointing (by his lofty standards) 2022, Deebo Samuel reportedly showed up to Niners camp highly motivated and in the best shape of his life. That has to strike a little fear into the hearts of opposing defensive coordinators, as Samuel has proven himself to be one of the NFL's most versatile and dynamic offensive weapons when healthy.
In addition to the glowing reports on Samuel out of camp, his ridiculously low $5.5k price tag jumps out as one of the most egregious on the main slate. Sure, Samuel will have to compete with the likes of Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk for touches (though George Kittle will likely be out), which makes him somewhat volatile. However, his upside is undeniable and he has the big-play ability needed to smash salary-considered expectations against a Steelers secondary that yielded an average of 8.42 yards per target to opposing WRs last season.
DraftKings Tight Ends - Week 1 DFS Picks
Tyler Higbee - LAR @ SEA ($4,800)
With Cooper Kupp recently being ruled out for the Rams' season-opening trip to Seattle, Tyler Higbee immediately jumps into the conversation as one of the top TE options on the DraftKings slate. In eight games without Kupp last season, Higbee was targeted 43 times, hauling in 28 catches for 235 yards and three scores. We must also remember that some of those outings were without having the benefit of Matthew Stafford at quarterback.
The Seahawks allowed 10 Top 12 TE performances last season. LA are now +5 point road dogs with a 46 point Total.
Tyler Higbee is coming off of a career high 72 catches/108 targets. Easily Stafford’s most experienced target option. Great Week One spot. pic.twitter.com/bJXFVp0oLH
— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) September 5, 2023
As an added bonus to Higbee's increase in volume, he draws an excellent matchup against a Seahawks defensive unit that was brutalized by opposing tight ends in 2022 and relinquished the NFL's third-most DK points to the position. While there are some questions that linger about this Rams offense after last year's abysmal season, Higbee is certainly in a prime position to succeed in the season opener.
Luke Musgrave - GB @ CHI ($2,900)
As mentioned in the Aaron Jones section of this article, we can expect the Packers to deploy a fairly conservative offensive approach in an effort to ease Jordan Love into the role as Green Bay's new starter. That said, Love will throw the ball some. With both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs missing practice on Wednesday and currently looking questionable, it makes sense to explore which Packer pass catchers could see increased usage in Week 1.
Enter rookie tight end, Luke Musgrave, a player the Packers selected in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. An athletic, "next-gen" type tight end, Musgrave led the Packers in preseason target share when Jordan Love was on the field and has an immediate path to a three-down role in this Green Bay offense. I had the rookie projected at 4-5 targets when analyzing this game initially and that projection would increase if Watson and/or Doubs were to miss this divisional tilt against the Bears. I'll take my chances at the $2.9k price point.
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