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The temperature outside is near freezing here in the Northeast, there's a warm glow in the fireplace, and the ball that draws 2023 to a close has yet to drop in Times Square. So, you know what that means... it's the perfect time to speculate who will take home MLB Rookie of the Year in 2024!
Last year, Gunnar Henderson took home the hardware in the AL and Corbin Carroll took it home for the NL. Both were preseason favorites that lived up to expectations, but it seems a little cloudier of a picture going into 2024.
There are a few early contenders who already had a cup of coffee in the big leagues, but some others that have yet to make their MLB debuts. Let's see who's got the inside track for 2024.
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2024 AL Rookie of the Year Favorites
Evan Carter, Texas Rangers, OF
Carter got the call last September with the Rangers in the midst of a divisional race for first place, and all he did was get on base via hit or walk in 35 of the 39 games he played. In the postseason, when it mattered most, he had at least one hit in 15 of 17 games. More than half of the hits he had between the regular and postseason went for extra bases (37 total hits; 13 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR). He also chipped in six stolen bases over that time. Additionally, he had a 10.3% BB% or better at every single level on his way to (and including) the majors.
Looking at all these great numbers and looking toward 2024, the question becomes can he keep it up? The big concern in his game is that when he got to the big leagues, his K% spiked to 32%. He also had a .412 BABIP, albeit in a small sample size. Both of those things, however, point to possible regression in 2024 once the sample size becomes a 162-game season.
Nolan Schanuel, Los Angeles Angels, 1B
Schanuel was drafted with the 11th overall pick in 2023, and played just 22 minor league games before the Angels decided he was ready for the Show and called him up in mid-August. Of course the 21-year-old had a 10-game hit streak to begin his MLB career, and had at least one hit in 23 of the 29 games he played in.
As with Evan Carter, Schanuel had a good BB% (15.2%), but unlike Carter, the young Angels' first baseman had a lower K% (14.4%). He may not hit for power, as just four of his 19 hits went for extra bases, but when you can put the bat on the ball and have an eye at the plate the way Schanuel does, you're going to be in an MLB lineup every day. This should give him plenty of opportunity to compete for the award, beginning on Opening Day.
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays, INF
Caminero had a late-season cameo with the Rays in which he earned 38 PA, going 8-for-34 (.235) with a double, a HR, seven RBI, four R, and a BB:K of 2:8. So he didn't set the world on fire, but he didn't fall flat on his face either. Of course, to make your MLB debut as a 19-year-old is quite the accomplishment in itself. Caminero earned the promotion by slugging his way to the majors, blasting 31 HR in just 460 MiLB at-bats in 2023, plus 94 RBI and 85 R.
As of this writing, he's not projected to be in the Rays' Opening Day lineup, which could put him behind the eight ball in regards to some of these other candidates for ROY. If he's able to impress in the spring, there's no reason to think that the MLB's #6 overall prospect couldn't be in contention by season's end for ROY honors in the American League.
2024 NL Rookie of the Year Favorites
Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers, OF
By now, you've probably heard that 19-year-old Chourio signed the largest deal ever for a player never to have played an MLB game. The Brewers would not have offered that contract unless they thought Chourio was the real deal, and the numbers indicate he is. He spent most of his time at Double-A last season, with 559 PA there and 24 PA at Triple-A, hitting .282 across both levels. He's been compared to Ronald Acuna Jr. due to his power-speed combo, blasting 22 HR last season to go along with 44 SB.
Acuna put up a .293-26-64-78-16 line in just 111 games on his way to Rookie of the Year in 2018; that's a tall order for even the most talented prospects. Assuming Chourio is in the lineup on Opening Day, it doesn't seem unreasonable to project the youngster for similar numbers if he can log 140 or more games. RosterResource already has him projected to bat sixth in the lineup, which should afford him ample run scoring and RBI opportunities.
Noelvi Marte, Cincinnati Reds, 3B
Marte is currently the top-ranked Reds prospect, but with Matt McLain's success, the hype surrounding Elly De La Cruz, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand hitting seven HR over the final 12 games, Marte's late-season performance may have gone a bit unnoticed. This is also likely due to the fact that his bat was cold upon his call-up, hitting just .171 (6-for-35, 0 HR) in 11 August games. However, over the final 22 games, Marte's bat got hot; the Reds' third baseman hit .380 (30-for-79, 3 HR) with 13 RBI and 13 R over that stretch.
There wasn't a big jump in K% when he got to the big leagues (18.6% to 20.3%), but there was a sizeable drop in BB% (12.0% to 6.5%), so you'd like to see improvement in that area in 2024. He added six stolen bases during his late-season audition, and his FGDC projection has him with 13 swipes next season. The Reds scored 4.00 R/game in 2022 (23rd), but scored 4.83 in 2023 (ninth), so this is an offense on the ascent. If the 22-year-old can help them get to the postseason, he should certainly be in the mix for NL ROY.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers, SP
The elder statesman of the bunch, the 25-year-old Yamamoto has been pitching in Japan since 2017. For his career, he is 70-29 with a 1.82 ERA and 922 K in 897 IP. During the World Baseball Classic, the Japanese ace's four-seam fastball averaged 95.3 mph, and topped out at 97. He's got a Max Fried-like curveball -- but from the right side -- that averaged around 77 mph during the WBC. A splitter and a cutter complement his repertoire.
The righty signs onto a Dodgers team that will be at or near the top of the league in runs per game in 2024, so he should have plenty of support in order to rack up the W's. While he likely won't maintain his career 1.82 ERA in the MLB, the expectation is that his stuff is good enough to compete with big league batters; otherwise, the Dodgers wouldn't have given him a 12-year, $325 million contract. Assuming health, he'll be a ROY contender in 2024.
Honorable Mentions for 2024 Rookie of the Year
As we mentioned, it's early, so anything could happen. Major sportsbooks don't even have odds for ROY candidates at this point (this article will be updated when they do have them, so keep an eye out!). But there are a lot of good ball players out there that could make a run for the award. Here are a few others that we should at least keep an eye on:
Orioles Prospects
Even after some recent graduations and Gunnar Henderson winning the award last year, the Orioles still have plenty of talent to bring up to the Show. Look out for Heston Kjerstad, Jackson Holliday, and Colton Cowser.
Jordan Lawlar, Arizona Diamondbacks, SS
Lawlar, the MLB's 10th overall prospect, got the call a week into September. He didn't do much with it, going 4-for-31 (.129), but he was on the Diamondbacks' roster for the World Series. He's at least got the taste of a deep postseason run, which is more than the rest of these NL contenders can claim.
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