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We have another abbreviated slate Thursday, but I like a couple of early-game betting opportunities in, fittingly, the two earliest games of the day.
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Without further ado, let's break down a pair of bets for two early-afternoon AL matchups on April 18 as we try to lock in some matinee profits.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rangers at Tigers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: DET -113
TEX: Jack Leiter | DET: Kenta Maeda
Game Time: 1:10 p.m. EDT
The Rangers' Jack Leiter sees his meteoric rise through the organization culminate in his big-league debut Thursday afternoon, with the right-hander with noteworthy MLB headlines getting the call up to the majors after opening the season at Triple-A Round Rock with a 1-1 record, 3.77 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 16.0 K/9.
Leiter's early-season numbers are certainly impressive, but it's also worth noting he struggled to a 6-16 record, 5.20 ERA, and 1.49 WHIP across his first 183.1 professional innings at the Double-A and Triple-A levels in the 2022-23 seasons. Leiter also recorded an elite 231 strikeouts in that span and surrendered well under a hit per inning, but walks were a persistent issue as evidenced by BB/9 figures that were well north 5.0 in each of the first three stops of his minor league tenure.
Leiter has that figure down to 1.91 over this season's small sample of 14.1 innings, but the jitters typically associated with a major league debut -- particularly one on the road -- could prompt some location issues to resurface. Detroit has been mostly harmless against right-handed pitching early this season despite its solid 10-8 record, but the Tigers do have a 9.8 percent walk rate against right-handed pitching at home thus far, placing them in the top 10 in the league in that split.
On the other side, the Tigers' Kenta Maeda has an unwieldy 6.00 ERA, but that's mostly the byproduct of a rough first start against the White Sox. Maeda has bounced back to post a 3.09 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over the 11.2 innings covering his next two starts, but those came against the mostly helpless Athletics and Twins.
The matchup against the Rangers is a lot more daunting, with Texas checking in with a .334 wOBA and 8.6 wRAA against right-handed pitching thus far. While it has been a bigger threat at home than on the road, Texas naturally has a dangerous array of bats that can muster at least a pair of runs over the first five innings. That's particularly true considering Maeda has had trouble in the past with a few current Rangers bats, allowing a combined .297 average and .933 OPS overall across 41 career encounters.
Pick: Both teams to score 2+ runs in first 5 innings (+165 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Corey Seager doesn’t need Spring Training. pic.twitter.com/u0kqmuCiod
— Michael Bier (@MichaelJBier) April 3, 2024
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Angels at Rays
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: Rays -146
LAA: Griffin Canning | TB: Ryan Pepiot
Game Time: 1:10 p.m. EDT
On paper, these are two vulnerable starters taking the hill Thursday afternoon. Griffin Canning has opened the season in particularly worrisome fashion, pitching to an 0-2 record, 9.88 ERA, and 1.83 WHIP across three starts. A 3.3 HR/9 is also part of his early-season statistical profile, and the bulk of his troubles have come in his two road starts.
Canning is facing a Rays team that's started off the season in middling fashion against right-handers, posting a .239 average and .302 wOBA. However, Tampa Bay still has most of the same talented bats that have produced an abundance of wins in recent seasons, and it has run into some poor luck when putting the ball in play against righties at home thus far -- the Rays have a .245 BABIP in that split despite a solid 20.3 percent line-drive rate, so they are bound to see some more hits start falling in soon if that latter figure persists.
On the other side, Ryan Pepiot is still getting acclimated to AL hitters after starting his career with the Dodgers, with which he produced a 5-1 record, 2.76 ERA, and 1.09 WHIP across 17 appearances (10 starts) over the last two seasons.
Pepiot drew the short straw for his season debut back on April 1 against the Rangers, and he allowed six earned runs across 5.1 innings to the defending champs. However, he bounced back to blank the Rockies over six innings at Coors Field while recording 11 strikeouts in his next start. He was somewhere in between versus the Giants in his most recent turn (five IP, five H, four ER, one BB, six K).
Ryan Pepiot's 10th and 11th Ks. pic.twitter.com/N787qK7SYm
— 野球しようぜ (@7hodvj9oCM78910) April 10, 2024
The Angels have a 23.8 percent strikeout rate, .231 average, and .303 wOBA against right-handed pitching on the road, and Los Angeles may sit out some players with today's series finale a matinee clash after a night game. Pepiot simply has better stuff than his opposite number and is in his pitcher-friendly home park, giving me a reasonable amount of confidence in Tampa Bay emerging from the first five innings with at least a one-run advantage.
Pick: Rays -0.5- 1st 5 innings (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
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