The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 9

May 20, 2024

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued, and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 9 of the 2024 MLB season.

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 9 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season -- May 20 through May 26. This is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the season rolls on, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players.

If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord (which you can join by clicking here), or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Cedric Mullins - OF, Baltimore Orioles - 76% rostered

When fantasy managers drafted Mullins, they wouldn't have been doing so expecting a repeat of his 30/30 season in 2021. However, they would have expected more than they have gotten from him so far. After 40 games, Mullins has six homers, 18 RBI, 17 runs, and six stolen bases along with a .185/.234/.346 slash line.

Mullins does have a 162-game pace of 24 homers, 73 RBI, 69 runs, and 24 steals. The only thing holding Mullins back from being a top-40 outfielder is his batting average. At present, he ranks 63rd at the position, which still makes him borderline rosterable in most formats and league sizes. The concern is a reduction in his playing time if he doesn't improve that slash line. That's something we've begun to see this week.

We can see from Mullins' Statcast Profile that his expected numbers aren't a reason to expect a resurgence. He does have a lowly .202 BABIP this year (career .291 BABIP), so maybe an improved batting average is in play. But expecting anything better than a .230 batting average at the end of the year is too optimistic. Even without that, he's remained barely rosterable due to the power and speed he's displayed.

Mullins has started on the bench in three of the Orioles' last six games. All against right-handed pitchers (RHP). The recently promoted Kyle Stowers took his spot in the lineup on Friday. And with Austin Hays returning from the IL, the outfield is getting crowded. Regular playing time for Mullins doesn't look like a sure thing anymore. Given the Orioles' depth, it's far from a given that Mullins returns to being an everyday player moving forward.

Verdict: Mullins' counting stats have been good and a 20/20 season is on the cards. That is entirely dependent on his playing time, which is diminishing. If we start seeing a regular bench role moving forward, Mullins would be a drop candidate in all leagues. I've no problem holding Mullins in deeper leagues. But in shallow leagues, looking for a replacement off waivers is prudent.

Ian Happ - OF, Chicago Cubs - 64% rostered

After being a reliable if unspectacular option, Happ hasn't been able to produce any fantasy value in 2024. He's currently ranked 104th among outfielders on Yahoo!, so he hasn't even been rosterable in deep leagues. Through 42 games, Happ has two homers, 14 RBI, 22 runs, and one stolen base along with a .213/.330/.310 slash line. After a hot start to the year in which Happ was hitting .350/.458/.475 after 10 games, things have drifted.

That's not to say we won't see some improvement from Happ. After sitting out a couple of games earlier in the week, Happ returned to the lineup Thursday and hit his second homer of the season. His last three hits have all gone for extra bases (one home run and two doubles). The problem is, he's gone 3-for-25 in that span.

Happ's expected numbers are all similar to his actual ones. He also has a .304 BABIP, so we can't label Happ as being unlucky or a victim of a small sample. It's tough to see how he can get his batting average up to near his career mark (.247). We are looking at what is set to be Happ's worst full season in the majors unless there's a dramatic change in approach and results.

Verdict: Happ is still walking a lot. His 13.7% BB% ranks in the 91st percentile. That does mean in certain points leagues or those using OBP, he does have some value. In standard leagues, Happ hasn't been providing enough counting stats to offset his low batting average. He doesn't look like repeating last season's career highs in RBI, runs, and steals and looks like a safe option to drop.

Hold For Now

Evan Carter - OF, Texas Rangers - 84% rostered

Carter currently ranks as the 65th outfielder on Yahoo!, a far cry from being drafted inside the top-30 outfielders (ADP ~115). He's avoided an IL stint with a back issue this week and came off the bench to pinch hit on Friday. That was his first appearance since May 10 due to the back problem, which is something he's been dealing with throughout his young career.

Evan Carter is not playing tonight. Rangers are facing a LHP. Bochy said he's available & that back is not reason he's not playing. Rangers also facing lefty on Saturday. Carter hasn't started in more than a week now.

— Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) May 17, 2024

A back problem is still something that sits near the top of my red flag list. But that's not the sole reason Carter is appearing in this week's Cut List. It appears as though Carter is very much in a platoon, which will limit his upside. He has struggled this year after making such an impressive debut in 2023. So far, he has five homers, 15 RBI, 23 runs, and two stolen bases with a .211/.301/.406 (39 games).

Bruce Bochy's comments and the recent acquisition of Robbie Grossman (career 126 wRC+ against LHP) hint at Carter sitting against lefties more moving forward. Saturday's game gave us a glimpse of what we can expect moving forward. Grossman started the game with the Angels sending lefty Patrick Sandoval to the mound. Carter then pinch hit for Grossman in the seventh inning when the Angels turned to RHP Adam Cimber from the bullpen.

Carter ended up having three plate appearances as the game went into the 13th inning. All three came against RHP. He's only had 29 plate appearances against LHP this year. But he's struggled with a .111/.172/.111 slash line and -17 wRC+ against them. Carter is still at least on the strong side of a platoon and in daily lineup leagues, you can just switch him out when the Rangers face a left-hand starting pitcher.

In deeper leagues, Carter also has enough upside and has been solid enough against RHP to be worth rostering. I'd only be looking at replacing Carter in shallower leagues with weekly lineups. That could change as we get deeper in the season and he is someone I'd be monitoring more closely than most other outfielders on my teams.

Gleyber Torres - 2B, New York Yankees - 80% rostered

Torres is featuring for the second time this season. When appearing as a Reader Request in the Week 5 edition, I suggested he's worth holding on to for now. He's now moved to that section of the article, largely down to what he has done over the last week. Since last Sunday, Torres has gone 7-for-24 with one homer, four RBI, four runs, and one stolen base. His modest five-game hitting streak was ended in yesterday's contest.

We've had false dawns with Torres already this season. It's difficult to declare him as being back after one productive week. On the season, Torres has two homers, 11 RBI, 20 runs, and four stolen bases with a .218/.294/.287 slash line (47 games). He's sporting a career-low 77 wRC+. While one good week isn't enough to justify Torres as being worth holding on to, if we go back further, we can see why I'm not prepared to drop him just yet.

Since April 27 (20 games), Torres is hitting .253/.309/.387 with two homers, nine RBI, eight runs, and one steal. He has a 102 wRC+ in that time. The Yankees are expecting DJ LeMahieu back soon. The concern is that the versatile Oswaldo Cabrera has been performing well enough in his stead that Torres might lose some at-bats.

However, Cabrera has sat in two of the last three games, with Jon Berti getting the start at third base. Even though Torres is in the final year of his contract, it's difficult to see him lose much playing time to someone who's seemingly lost playing time themselves. If Torres continues hitting like he has in recent weeks, he should be able to stick in the lineup and provide fantasy value at a position with limited options.

When LeMahieu returns, if we see a drop-off in playing time for Torres, then he enters the droppable conversation in all leagues. And he still needs to build on his recent improvement at the plate to warrant consideration in shallower leagues. We should have a clearer and more definitive picture by the end of the month.

On the Hot Seat

Bo Bichette - SS, Toronto Blue Jays - 96% rostered

It's fair to say the Toronto Blue Jays have had more players requested to feature in The Cut List than any other team so far. Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman have appeared with both having a ~5.00 ERA. Daulton Varsho and George Springer have both been covered, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has so far eluded inclusion. That's largely down to his track record and the fact he's still hitting .280/.373/.393.

Bichette has a similar track record but the time is right to take a deeper look at him. After 41 games, Bichette has a .217/.279/.306 slash line with two homers, 15 RBI, 13 runs, and four stolen bases. That's a 162-game pace of eight homers, 60 RBI, 51 runs, and 16 stolen bases. Needless to say, that would represent his worst full season in the majors.

Bichette has improved his plate discipline this year. His 15.1% K% is a career low while his 6.4% BB% is almost one percentage point higher than his career walk rate. That is despite Bichette seemingly being even more aggressive at the plate. If we look at a comparison of Bichette's Swing Take Profile from 2023 and 2024, it shows he's swinging at more pitches in the heart of the strike zone. And fewer pitches missing the zone.

Bichette's ability to make contact with the ball has been even more evident this year. His 84.7% Contact% is a career high and Bichette's 95.1% Z-Contact% (contact on pitches inside the strike zone) ranks as the sixth highest among 166 qualified hitters. If he's swinging at more strikes, making more contact, and striking out less, there has to be an issue with the quality of contact Bichette is making.

The below table compares some of Bichette's quality of contact numbers along with his expected stats over the previous three seasons. As we can see, the shortstop is simply not hitting the ball as well as he has done in previous years.

Bichette has shown he can have success with a drop in hard contact by hitting more line drives like he did in 2023. This year, he's hitting more ground balls, fewer line drives, and making weaker contact than he did in 2022 and 2023. He's had the negatives in his quality of contact over the last two years all occur this year.

There is an argument to be made that Bichette is a slow starter. April has historically been his worst month. His career slash line in April is .254/.296/.414. His 97 wRC+ in the first month of the season is lower than any other month. The concern is those struggles have carried over into May, with a .224/.296/.306 slash line and 79 wRC+ this month.

It's still too early to give up on Bichette. We've seen what he can do and the fact he was drafted as a top-10 shortstop was down to his track record. However, Bichette currently ranks as the 43rd shortstop on Yahoo! and he's yet to shake off a normally poor April. I wouldn't be dropping him just yet, but there could be a tough decision to be made in the coming weeks.

If we're looking at the same profile and lack of quality contact in mid-June, it would be fair to believe this is a down year for Bichette. Moving on from him is something that will need to be considered. If you were to trade him away now and get a solid return still, it's not a move I'd be second-guessing.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Yainer Diaz - C/1B, Houston Astros - 93% rostered

Diaz was generally being drafted as a top-five catcher in fantasy drafts. He's failed to live up to that value as he's currently ranked 17th among catchers on Yahoo! Still far from dreadful but he is on the bubble of being rosterable in standard leagues. If we were drafting again today, I'd still have no problem taking Diaz in the top 10 at the position.

So far in 2024, Diaz is hitting .259/.294/.373 with three homers, 21 RBI, 16 runs, and no stolen bases (44 games). Only three catchers have had more plate appearances than Diaz (177), so he's had the volume to be a top-five catcher. After hitting 23 homers in 104 games last year, Diaz's power hasn't been close to matching last year. His expected numbers are almost identical to his actual ones, so he hasn't been unlucky.

The drop in home runs looks like being down to the significant increase in how many ground balls Diaz has been hitting. After having a 44.3% GB% (ground-ball rate) and 29.6% FB% (fly-ball rate) in 2023, Diaz has a 56.1% GB% and 20.1% FB% this year. Despite the struggles, Diaz is still someone I'd be rostering in any league size. If this is his floor, it would only take a small improvement to end the year as a top-10 catcher.

Spencer Torkelson - 1B, Detroit Tigers - 70% rostered

Fantasy managers won't need to be told that Torkelson hit his first home run of the season last Sunday in his 38th game of the season. That was followed by his second homer of 2024 on Monday. It felt like patience was being rewarded to those who kept Torkelson on their rosters. In the four subsequent games, he's gone 4-for-18 and still has a disappointing .226/.292/.345 slash line with two homers, 16 RBI, 19 runs, and no stolen bases (43 games).

Spencer Torkelson is finally on the board.

If you include Spring Training, this was his first home run in his last 205 AB.

Let's see if this gets him going.#RepDetroit pic.twitter.com/2pShF39vVT

— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) May 13, 2024

The likelihood of Torkelson hitting another 28 homers in the Tigers' remaining 117 games is unlikely. So we can rule out any repeat of his 30-homer season from last year. However, if his back-to-back homer games have kick-started his season, we could still see a productive first baseman over the remainder of 2024. Torkelson's 30 home runs came in 159 games. If he matches that pace over the next 117 games, he'll hit another 22 home runs.

There's a lot more hope than expectation in that. There isn't anything in his numbers that would lead me to believe Torkelson will end the season with 20 homers. We shouldn't forget how bad he was during the first 37 games of the season. But if you have held him this long, it wouldn't be the worst idea to hold Torkelson for another week (or two). Don't be afraid to drop him if another option presents itself on waivers.

Aaron Civale - SP, Tampa Bay Rays - 45% rostered

It's been a tough season so far for Civale. After nine starts, he's sporting a 2-3 W-L record, 5.83 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 49 Ks (46.1 IP). It might seem like Civale is an easy cut. However, I'd be looking to hold on to him. If we look at some of Civale's numbers, he appears to have been unlucky in the early goings and there's plenty to suggest he can be a solid contributor over the remainder of 2024.

Civale has a 3.46 xFIP and 3.54 SIERA. Among the 76 qualified starters, he ranks inside the top 30 for both. His .310 BABIP is the 18th highest among that group while Civale's 16.4% HR/FB% is the fourth highest. He has had home run trouble before. In 2021, he had a 17.2% HR/FB% but still managed to put up a 3.84 ERA. Civale has also had trouble keeping the ball on the ground. Despite a career 41.1% GB%, he has a 31.9% GB% this year.

The Rays analytics department will be all too aware of this and will no doubt be working on Civale's arsenal and usage. Another elephant in the room is Civale's health. He's yet to reach 125 innings in a Major League Baseball season, so it's difficult to believe he'll get over 150 IP this year. That will limit his fantasy value. As long as he is healthy, I'd look to hold Civale believing that his luck will improve. He can still be a top-60 starting pitcher the rest of the season.

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