The All-Regression Team

October 30, 2019

Gage Bridgford (@GbridgfordNFL) looked at the first half of the season at some of the early successes to look at some players that may have been overperforming. These overperformers are going straight to the All-Regression team.

The NFL season has reached its halfway point. About half of the league has played eight games, and the rest of the league has played seven with their byes out of the way. With the regular season half over, it's likely the majority of your fantasy regular season is over as well. We've seen some overachievers thus far this year, and we have some players that are going to see the regression start to come in full effect.

Today, we're looking at the All-Regression Team. You aren't going to see the studs like Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook or Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey on this list, but you are going to see some guys that you've likely relied upon so far that you may want to look into selling while their value is still high.

They are not a regression candidate, but the New England Patriots Defense is the third-best player in fantasy, regardless of position, through eight weeks. They're just at an absurd pace that we haven't seen in a very long time. They just had to be mentioned.

2019 All-Regression Team Candidates

Quarterback - Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

As things stand right now, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is the No. 5 quarterback in fantasy. He's been crazy efficient, and he has lit up softer opponents at times this year. Despite all that, he's a prime candidate to regress in the second half of the season. Early on this year, we looked at Dallas' soft schedule which led to a lot of their early-season success. That schedule is about to become one of the more difficult runs in the NFL.

In four out of their next six games, Dallas is playing defenses that are in the top-10 in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. One of those is the aforementioned Patriots defense in a game on the road in Foxborough. Prescott's schedule softens up during the fantasy playoffs with good matchups in the final three weeks but in regards to your playoff push, he's not going to be a consistent player that can help you get there.

Running Back - Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

If fellow Chargers running back Melvin Gordon III had gotten traded at yesterday's deadline, Austin Ekeler likely wouldn't be on this list. From Week 1 through Week 4, Ekeler was the second-best running back in fantasy behind only McCaffrey. Since Gordon's return in Week 5, Ekeler is just the RB13. He's splitting touches too much to be relied upon as the locked-in starter that he was before Gordon ended his holdout.

This Chargers team has been circling the drain for weeks, and the arrow hasn't been pointing upwards in the slightest. In the team's remaining games, the Chargers will be playing just one team without playoff hopes, the division-rival Denver Broncos. Ekeler is splitting touches and he has to play teams that are actively trying to win. While Ekeler continues to get passing game work, he's become nothing more than an RB3 or flex play every week. It was fun while it lasted though.

Running Back - Mark Ingram, Baltimore Ravens

Through the first four games of the season, Ravens running back Mark Ingram was the sixth-best running back in fantasy football. He scored five of his seven touchdowns, and he had gotten to at least 70 total yards in each game. In Weeks 5 through 7, with Week 8 excluded for the bye, he's been the RB25. He's hit the 70-yard mark in just one of those games, and he only has two touchdowns compared to the five he had in the first four weeks.

Baltimore has been running the ball a lot, they are No. 1 in the NFL, but they've been doing it more with quarterback Lamar Jackson. Jackson has 576 rushing yards on the season, including 268 in the last two games. Baltimore has to play four top-16 run defenses in their next five games. Ingram's schedule is about to get extremely difficult, and he hasn't been getting the volume to make up for his inefficiencies. If you can find someone desperate for a running back, he's someone you should look to sell before his stock falls.

Wide Receiver - Terry McLaurin, Washington Redskins

Unfortunately for rookie sensation wide receiver Terry McLaurin, his stock is about to start trending downward. Interim coach Bill Callahan has put a massive emphasis on the running game, and the quarterbacks aren't giving him a reason to do otherwise. Quarterback Case Keenum has struggled to stay healthy and backup quarterback Dwayne Haskins is being forced, even though he's not ready, to start as a result.

McLaurin was the 23rd-best receiver in fantasy through the first four weeks, and he's been just WR28 over the past four weeks. Washington still has their bye week ahead and several bad matchups are remaining on their schedule, such as the Buffalo Bills in Week 9 and the Green Bay Packers in Week 14, right in the thick of the fantasy playoffs. If Keenum's injury is long-term, Washington doesn't have a capable quarterback that can keep McLaurin's fantasy value afloat.

Wide Receiver - Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals wideout Larry Fitzgerald has been one of the most consistent NFL players during his long and storied career. He's been WR25 so far this year despite playing with a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach. He has lined up in the slot the majority of the time, and he's given quarterback Kyler Murray a safe spot to get rid of the ball, as evidenced by the fact that he leads the Cardinals in every major receiving category.

In the back half of this season, life is going to get a lot more difficult. The Cardinals have to play the San Francisco 49ers, who have been arguably the second-best defense in the NFL this season, twice in the next three weeks. Teams like the Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, and Pittsburgh Steelers, who all can take advantage of the struggling Cardinals' offensive line, are also looming on the schedule. You can sell Larry based on his name value because his stock will likely take a major hit after Thursday night.

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