Time to Jump Off the Cowboys Bandwagon

September 25, 2019

The Dallas Cowboys have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL in Weeks 1-3 of the 2019 season and have helped fantasy football owners greatly. However, Gage Bridgford explains why now is the time to sell dynasty football shares in the top Dallas players before their schedule lowers their value.

Through three games, the Dallas Cowboys are 3-0 while averaging over 32 points per game. At each of the four major fantasy positions, quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end, every player on the team is no worse than 11th at their position. Their kicker, Brett Maher, is 16th, and he would be higher up if his team wasn't scoring touchdowns every time they had the ball.

That's all well and good. Their offensive line gives QB Dak Prescott time to find an open receiver while Ezekiel Elliott finds holes to run through. All of that is amazing, but, and this is a giant but... is the other shoe going to drop on them when their schedule picks up? With that in mind, should you be selling high on your Dallas studs?

In Dallas' three wins, the three teams they've beaten have a combined record of 1-8, and, if Bruce Arians didn't make a questionable choice to take a delay of game call to push his kicker backward, that record might be 0-9. The Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins have looked like two of the worst teams in football, and Dallas properly trampled them. The schedule is going to get tougher which will hurt fantasy owners everywhere.

The Case to Sell

If you are here reading this, you are likely playing in a dynasty format. In dynasty, you're either contending or you're not. It's that simple. If you own any one of the big three, Dak, Zeke or wide receiver Amari Cooper, you should think about selling them. For most of them, their value is never going to be higher. If you're not contending, go full rebuild, and sell them all while you can.

In Dak's case specifically, his value has to come down just due to what he has done in his career. He's averaging 27.9 fantasy points per game right now. His previous high in his career was just 17.9, which he had last year along with his rookie season. Looking ahead, over the next five games, Dallas plays just one team with a passing defense DVOA that's within the top 10 in the Green Bay Packers, but, if you look at the back half of the schedule, they have five straight games between Weeks 11-15 that are teams within the top 10. Dak can get you to the playoffs with his schedule, but those of us that play in two-week per round playoffs could be in trouble with matchups against the Chicago Bears, on the road, and Los Angeles Rams.

For Zeke, we have more of the same, except there are even more difficult matchups for him. Division-rival Philadelphia Eagles have the fourth-best run defense in football, and they aren't even fully healthy. A matchup with them in Week 16 is what could doom you at the end of the season. Of the three major players, he's the one I would most likely hold onto because of his volume. True workhorse RBs aren't a dime a dozen these days.

Backup running back Tony Pollard is averaging 5.0 yards per carry. If you can find a taker for him, it would make sense to do so. As the season rolls on, he's just not going to be the guy for them.

Now we get to Amari Cooper. Since coming over to the Cowboys in a trade last season, Cooper has been a top-10 receiver in fantasy football. He's the primary receiver for Prescott, and it isn't particularly close. He is averaging seven targets per game, while the next closest are receivers Randall Cobb and Michael Gallup each at five per game. He's leading the team in receiving yards and touchdowns, and, with Gallup down with an injury, his target share will likely rise, but, as we talked about with Dak, the back end of that schedule gets tough.

For each of your big three, we have some major concerns. Elliott's volume makes him the most likely to sustain his scoring output, if not increase it. Cooper has scored four touchdowns per game, and it's just unlikely that he maintains that against better competition especially if Prescott struggles at all. Sometimes, it's best to quit while you're ahead to let these guys go. If you're in a dynasty league where you're a non-contender, focus on getting value for these guys while looking to the future. Their price will only go down from here.

The Case to Hold

Prescott has never finished lower than QB 11 in a full season. While he isn't averaging running numbers like Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, he does find the end zone. He's scored at least six rushing touchdowns in every season. Prescott is likely going to regress to his mean, but his mean is still pretty good. When you can get a consistent quarterback play, you want to hold onto that, especially with how quarterbacks have been dropping like flies so far this year.

As previously stated, Elliott is likely the only one of the big three that has his stock trending upward. In the team's matchup against the Redskins, Elliott saw 23 carries and a touchdown. When the team is in closer games, they want to give him the ball to control the pace of play. Tougher teams down the road will force the team to do just that. Also, he's had limited passing game work, but, last season, he had 77 receptions, which was more than his first and second seasons combined. That usage is likely going to go up moving forward.

Throughout his career, Cooper's major issue has been his consistency. He can be a number-one wideout one week, and he can fall off of a cliff the following week. For at least the next six games, the Cowboys will be able to feature him as a true number-one wide receiver. If you can have a player of that caliber on your roster, you hold onto them.

Michael Gallup showed promise of a second-year breakout early on until his unfortunate injury. If anything, he is a must-hold and could present a buy-low opportunity for owners looking to rebuild.

What Does This All Mean?

Ultimately, what you should do with these three guys depends on your situation. If you're a contender with depth, you're holding onto them to ride them as long as you can. However, if you're a contender, but you're thin at a lot of spots due to some injuries or other reasons, you can look to trade them. Dak can get you multiple starters, and Cooper can do the same. At the end of the day, everything is about winning a championship, and, late in the year, having consistent players is what you need to do.

On the flip side, if you're not going to be winning a title this year, the time to sell them while looking to the future is now. Zeke is a piece to build around, but, in regards to Dak and Cooper, there are a ton of talented quarterbacks and wide receivers coming out next season. Grab some draft picks and start taking bites at the apple.

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