X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

State of the Meta: Punt FT% in Fantasy Basketball Leagues

Kent Shen reviews the strategy of punting free throw percentage (FG%) in fantasy basketball leagues, along with the players who have unexpectedly helped and hurt this strategy so far in the 2018-19 NBA season.

As we approach the new year, enough season has passed to afford us the chance to evaluate our early season calls and take the temperature of the NBA. With around a third of the season over, now is a good time to reflect and re-calibrate some of our expectations.

With this series, I'm going to take a look from a top-down point of view at some of the punt strategies, and look to give some guidance on how to move forward if your teams are in those particular strategies, and what kind of thoughts should be doing through our heads as we gear up for what is hopefully a successful stretch run and playoffs.

We'll move onto Punt FT%.

 

A Surprise To Be Sure... But A Welcome One

In the past, punt FT% was a strategy defined by the bigs, and a lot of players drafted it starting down the middle with guys like DeAndre Jordan, Dwight Howard and Andre Drummond being the headliners of the build.

This has been the generally accepted approach for years, going all the way back to proto-punt FT% teams headlined by Shaq making punt FT% the first punt strategy to really go mainstream as something that fantasy basketball players did to gain an edge.

As the strategy of punting has matured over the year, we arrive in 2018 with punt FT% in a very different place - I believe the strategy to be one defined by its guards, and the success and failure of the strategy comes down to how well you fill out your guard positions. This has actually worked to make punt FT% stronger than it has ever been in the metagame, where strong punt FT% teams can be pretty dominant across the board with few, if any weak categories if drafted correctly, and it's thanks to the evolution of the point guard position - from the pass first point generals of the 90s and early 2000s to the athletic freak combo guards of today.

 

Optimus Dime and the Brodie

Russell Westbrook and John Wall are the defining punt FT% players of 2018, imagine that a few years ago. Both players provide across the board production and help to greatly bolster the categories that punt FT% will naturally struggle within steals, points and assists. In addition to that, both their values this season have dropped overall due to dips in FT%, which obviously isn't a concern if you're punting it.

The combination of those factors has made these 2 guys easy trade targets if they're sitting on a team that isn't a punt FT% team. Both these guys also have their relatively poor field goal percentages and high turnover counts pulled up by the general high FG% and low TO nature of punt FT% teams making them elite across the board contributors with almost no weaknesses.

 

As Deep As It Gets

Another reason why the strategy is now defined by guards is that the center position is now deeper than it has ever been. Just take a look at how many top 50 guys there are in the strategy that are not attractive to other builds: Andre Drummond, DeAndre Jordan, Steven Adams, Rudy Gobert, Clint Capela, Hassan Whiteside, Montrezl Harrell. And then you have guys in the top 100 range like Willie Cauley-Stein and Derrick Favors who were incredibly cheap pickups on draft day as well as rookies like Mohamed Bamba and Marvin Bagley who will end up in that range soon as well and it's evident that punt FT% is as deep as it has ever been.

Couple that with the declining overall value (but not for punt FT%) of guys like Westbrook, Wall and even Eric Bledsoe, all of whom suddenly can't seem to hit their free throws anymore and it's incredibly easy to find incremental value for a punt FT% team up and down the board.

 

The Wire

One big advantage of being in a punt strategy is being able to find value in players who are not worth rostering for others. Here are some guys you should be grabbing if they are on your wires for your punt FT% teams. (% are for Yahoo leagues)

Marvin Bagley III, 57% Owned

Probably the most natural stash for the strategy, Bagley is available in almost half of the leagues out there and should absolutely be picked up, especially if you have an IR spot on your punt FT% team.

Points is probably the hardest category to pivot for in the build and Bagley will be able to provide a decent amount of that along with bolstering your peripheral stats to an extent. He has a decent steal rate for a big and his minutes should go up as the year goes on.

Mitchell Robinson, 12% Owned

Mitch Rob is also a good big man to stash, although I like him a lot less in punt FT% than something like punt rebounds or punt FG% due to his skill-set being too correlated to the strengths of the strategy.  If you still need to bolster blocks and FG%, then he should be a solid pickup.

I expect his minutes to go up as the season goes on, especially with the Knicks' recent benching of Enes Kanter. When your biggest competition for the starting spot is Luke Kornet, you're in a pretty good place to pick up decent minutes.

Lonzo Ball, 86% Owned

He's not a waiver guy but I have to mention him here as he is still on a decent number of waiver wires somewhere. If he is available in the 14% of leagues where he isn't owned, please pick him up.

Derrick Favors, 65% Owned

Easy scoop up if you need another big, and a great example of how easy it is to get quality bigs for the strategy and the advantages of building from the guard positions out. It's probably too late to grab him in a lot of leagues now but if he's still on your wire he's a solid pickup.

Maurice Harkless, 3% Owned

For deeper leagues, Moe Harkless is a solid flier. He returned top 100 value in punt FT% in 2016-2017 and contributes in your contrary categories (decent steals and 3s) which make him one of the cheapest pivots out there. I'd stash him to see how his playing time shakes out if you have room to do so.

Emmanuel Mudiay, 59% Owned

Another excellent pivot, especially when you are in the strategy that is best equipped to mitigate his crappy efficiency. Mudiay will provide a decent amount of points and assists, which is likely a welcome addition to your punt FT% team.

 

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith Finds End Zone in First Training Camp Practice
Tyler Shough

Pushing for Fully Guaranteed Rookie Deal
Ar'Darius Washington

Goes on PUP List
Lamar Jackson

to be Even Better in 2025?
Tre Harris

Agrees to Terms on Rookie Deal
Justin Herbert

Off to Good Start at Training Camp
Jameson Williams

Earning Rave Reviews from Lions Coaches
Christian Mahogany

Expected to Start for Lions
Zach Allen

an Extension Candidate in Denver?
Zaire Franklin

May Miss Start of Training Camp
Portland Trail Blazers

Damian Lillard Returning to Portland
Mason Taylor

to Play "Crucial" Role in Jets' Offense
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
T.J. Watt

Once Again Becomes Highest-Paid Non-QB
RJ Harvey

Reaches Agreement on Four-Year Rookie Contract
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Believe Rashee Rice Will Receive Two- to Four-Game Suspension
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jack Kiser

Inks Rookie Deal With Jaguars
Mike Green

Expected to Sign Rookie Deal with Ravens on Thursday
Mike Williams

Retiring After Eight NFL Seasons
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Jordan Addison

Pleads Guilty to Lesser Offense, Gets Fine and Probation
Jordan Mims

Titans Add Backfield Depth With Jordan Mims
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Believed to be Recovered From Shoulder Injury
Najee Harris

Chargers Place Najee Harris on NFI List
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF