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Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. With just a few weeks left, I'll revisit an all-encompassing metric for realized performance: wins above replacement (WAR).
WAR was developed as an attempt to measure a player's relative value compared to a replacement-level player, or a readily-available player (think free agent). The calculation is rather complicated and is broken down with further explanation here for those who are interested. The gist of the metric is that the higher a player's WAR is, the more valuable a player they are.
Now is a good time to take a look back at how starters fared throughout the season and what statistics they have to show for it. WAR is a great indicator of success, so let's investigate some Studs and Duds!
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WAR Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, September 17, 2023.
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
11-6, 3.70 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 27.3% Strikeout Rate, 5.4 WAR
Upon initial glance, Zack Wheeler's record and ERA would suggest a middling season. However, his 5.4 WAR is the highest among qualified starters. What was going on under the hood for Wheeler that fantasy managers may have missed?
Everything across the board has suggested that Wheeler has been a top-tier starter once again. His Statcast profile is red all over, hence his strong WHIP and strikeout numbers. His .292 BABIP is in line with his .296 career mark, so he hasn't gotten unlucky in that regard. Nothing really explains his relatively high ERA, but his 3.19 xERA, 3.17 FIP, and 3.49 SIERA all suggest that he has gotten a bit unlucky.
Wheeler's Statcast profile does not suggest a 3.70 ERA and while it is unfortunate that his ERA hasn't caught up to his underlying numbers, fantasy managers can feel hopeful for another strong season in 2024. Pitching was more volatile this season than it has been in some time, but Wheeler's WAR and underlying measures suggest he was a solid performer.
Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs
16-4, 2.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 24.2% Strikeout Rate, 4.5 WAR
Justin Steele built off of his strong 2022 season with an even better 2023, going 16-4 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 24.2% strikeout rate. He may not have started the season prominently on the fantasy radar, but his 4.5 WAR shows that he has been very effective. What has Steele done to continue his success?
Steele has excelled with his two pitches. His fastball and slider aren't overpowering, but they are extremely deceptive. His fastball only averages 91.8 mph, but he gets a ton of spin with it at 2,399 RPM. His slider gets 14.3 inches of horizontal break, which is 123% above the league average. He has located his pitches well, which has allowed him to be so effective as a two-pitch starter.
Steele's contributions in 2023 have been pivotal for the Cubs and fantasy managers. His two pitches get a lot of spin on them and are located well. He may not be the most exciting fantasy option but his WAR indicates that he has provided plenty of value.
WAR Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, September 17, 2023.
Lance Lynn, Los Angeles Dodgers
11-11, 5.94 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 23.8% Strikeout Rate, 0.5 WAR
Lance Lynn has suffered a career-worst season in 2023, much to the frustration of fantasy managers. The 36-year-old's numbers plummeted to a 5.94 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 23.8% strikeout rate in 29 starts. His 0.5 WAR is the second-lowest among qualified starters. What went wrong for him and can fantasy managers expect a rebound next season?
Oddly, nothing really changed in his underlying profile. Lynn's pitch movements and velocities have been pretty much the same as last season along with his batted-ball profile. He has allowed middling hard contact throughout his career but has found success, so this doesn't seem to be a culprit.
The obvious culprit has been the massive spike in home runs. Lynn has experienced a career-high 20.0% HR/FB rate compared to an 11.2% career mark and has endured a devastating 2.21 HR/9 rate. His 4.25 SIERA suggests that he has gotten very unlucky with the long ball given his batted-ball profile, but no qualified starter has a higher HR/9 rate.
The only positive takeaway from Lynn's season is that there wasn't a clear sign to indicate that his decline will continue next season. The clear issue was HR, but there isn't an explanation in his batted-ball profile. Obviously, Lynn did not help fantasy managers this season, but there is some hope for next season.
Alex Cobb, San Francisco Giants
7-6, 3.62 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 20.5% Strikeout Rate, 1.8 WAR
Alex Cobb has once again been a useful fantasy option this season, compiling a 3.62 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 20.5% strikeout rate in 27 starts. However, his 1.8 WAR is in the bottom-1o among qualified starters. What should fantasy managers make of this and what can they expect from the 35-year-old in 2024?
The confounding thing is that Cobb has looked like two completely different pitchers when pitching at home versus on the road. He has been excellent when pitching in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park with a 1.95 ERA and a .225/.266/.344 slash line in 74 innings pitched. He has been awful on the road with a 5.26 ERA and a .307/.357/.505 slash line in 75 1/3 IP.
The differences in his performances can be found in his batted-ball profiles. Cobb managed a 62.5% groundball rate, 12.8% HR/FB rate, and 30.9% hard-hit rate in his home starts. However, on the road, he posted a 52.7% groundball rate, 23.6% HR/FB rate, and 39.6% hard-hit rate. While Oracle Park is more forgiving for pitchers, it alone does not explain the stark differences in his numbers.
Cobb has now been a useful back-of-the-rotation fantasy option for several seasons now. He managed decent overall numbers this season due to his stellar home starts. While his road starts were very poor, there isn't a lot out there to explain the differences. It did take a toll on his WAR, but hopefully, Cobb can figure it out for 2024 and provide even more value for fantasy managers.
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