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Pranav's fantasy baseball starting pitcher breakouts who are poised to improve even further in 2025. These are SP fantasy baseball sleepers and draft targets.
Everyone's scanning for a breakout pitcher in their drafts. Wins are often decided at the margins, but it helped in 2024 when the guys on the margins at the beginning of the season were Reynaldo Lopez.
Going into 2025, we shouldn't simply forget those that already had their breakout seasons. While many of those pitchers will take a step back, a few may take it to the next level and solidify themselves as true stalwarts in fantasy baseball.
The only criteria for inclusion here is that they must have debuted before 2024 and had their breakout in 2024. We're going to take a look at four such starting pitchers. These four all pitched in the MLB before last year but had a breakout campaign. All four pitchers are set to be even better in 2025.
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Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners
Bryan Woo had one of the more interesting breakout seasons, with a 2.89 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 0.90 WHIP, 21.4% strikeout rate, 2.8% walk rate, and 30.4% CSW%; though, several injuries limited him to 121 1/3 innings and 22 starts.
The most dramatic change from his 2023 season was the decrease from an 8.4% walk rate to an unthinkable 2.8% walk rate. This isn't dumb luck either, Woo jumped to an elite 108 Location+ grade while maintaining a 106 Stuff+ grade.
His fastball is what sets Woo apart from the rest of the crop, with a 16.1% SwStr%, 72.9% strike rate, and 30.1% CSW%.
The main concern outside of health is the decline in strikeout performance, largely due to less impressive secondary pitches. In 2023, Woo's sinker sported an impressive 10.5% SwStr%, but that fell to 4.8% in 2024 (but induced a 67.9% ground ball rate).
His changeup, sweeper, and slider all had 9% usage rates with varying levels of success, but all have utility.
With Woo, it's likely only a few tweaks to his pitch mix that will take him back to the 25% strikeout rate he posted in his rookie year.
Bryan Woo's 2Ks in the 5th. pic.twitter.com/arAMAnGfgS
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 25, 2024
Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
A season line of a 3.49 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 1.27 WHIP, and 25.1% strikeout rate across 170 innings doesn't look too bad for a starting pitcher, but it may be difficult to feel confident in that pitcher at a premium draft price.
However, Hunter Brown pitched a better season than those numbers indicate. If you disregard an awful April, Brown maintained a 2.51 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 26% strikeout rate, 1.12 WHIP, and 106 Pitching+ grade across 24 starts for the rest of the 2024 season.
Additionally, a 3.31 xERA, .307 BABIP, 12.7% HR/FB ratio, and an elite 30.3% hard-hit rate all point to a more stable 2025 if fate favors him going into his fourth season in the league.
This is not to say he jumps to a Cy Young-tier level in 2025, but the 26-year-old should carry a version of himself into 2025 that will look better over a full season than his numeric output in 2024 -- more than justifying his 110 ADP.
Hunter Brown just stole Luis Arráez's Soul. 👻 pic.twitter.com/3bOrOznuZ1
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 18, 2024
Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies
Cristopher Sanchez gave himself a shot at a rotation spot after a surprisingly good 2023 when he held a 3.44 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 24.2% strikeout rate, and 4% walk rate through 18 starts. However, very few people would have called Sanchez's 2023 season a legitimate breakout.
Declaring a pitcher as a breakout requires some consensus that the player is set to produce for the long run. Many felt the opposite about Sanchez, as he was still fighting for a rotation spot (and fantasy relevance, with an ADP in the late 200s).
The formerly unranked pitcher proved all the doubters wrong and secured a long-term deal and rotation spot with his 2024 performance. Through 31 starts, he held a 3.32 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 20.3% strikeout rate, 1.24 WHIP, 5.8% walk rate, and elite 58.3% GB% through 31 starts.
With a 4.7 fWAR, there is no doubt that Sanchez can provide value in any fantasy baseball context, but there is still worry that the 28-year-old has hit his ceiling.
Obvious improvement can come via the strikeouts category. A nearly four-point drop in strikeout rate -- even while maintaining his elite 36.4% chase rate -- is concerning. The primary culprit is his sinker (47% usage rate), which held a 28.5% CSW% and 58.2% zone% in 2024 -- down from a 33% CSW% and 63.6% zone% in 2023.
With reports that Sanchez is adding a new pitch to his repertoire in 2025, he may not even need the juiced-up sinker to come back to a serviceable strikeout rate.
With his workload, a juggernaut Phillies lineup behind him, and pitch mix improvements incoming, you can feel comfortable taking Cristopher Sanchez at his 188 ADP.
Cristopher Sánchez, Dirty 88mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/chdrWJVRGX
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 29, 2024
Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
In his first season as a starting pitcher, Crochet blew the doors off, with a 3.58 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 2.53 SIERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate, and 16.2% SwStr% across 32 starts earning him an All-Star nod for an abysmal Chicago White Sox squad.
Traded this offseason to the Boston Red Sox, the 25-year-old immediately slots in as the ace on a team in the playoff mix.
There's plenty of data points that suggest his 2024 season was not only sustainable but worse than it should've been. His 14.4% HR/FB and .318 BABIP indicate that luck was not on his side.
Breaking free from the league-worst Chicago White Sox defense (by DRS) and moving to a top-10 Boston Red Sox defense (by DRS) means there's a better shot of Crochet's ERA approaching his elite 2.69 FIP in 2025.
Boston's defense should improve as well, considering Ceddanne Rafaela will move off shortstop (-7 OAA at SS, 5 OAA at his natural position of CF), Enmanuel Valdez (-9 OAA ) is on the Pirates, and Trevor Story (8 OAA in 2023) is healthy.
While some worry about his injury history and struggles in the second half of the 2024 season, 142 innings and 32 starts in his first season as a starter isn't concerningly low. His second-half 5.12 ERA looks concerning, but an increasingly dysfunctional White Sox clubhouse likely exacerbated natural regression.
With some of the best stuff in the league and a solid wins floor, a healthy Crochet should solidify himself as a top-shelf fantasy baseball pitching option for 2025 and beyond.
Garrett Crochet, Vicious Cutters. 😤 pic.twitter.com/E0LFtnASFu
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 20, 2024
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