RADIO
Michael Florio's fantasy football sneaky starts, pivot plays, and post-waiver waiver pickups for Week 4 of 2024. Start 'em as under-the-radar fantasy sleepers.
We are nearly a quarter of the way into the NFL season. Despite plenty of big-name players currently being sidelined due to injuries, we have not had a ton of huge waiver names popping up just yet. That can make it difficult to set your lineups, even without byes hitting yet.
But there are always options you can find to plug in your lineup and help you survive the week. And that should be the goal right now. It doesn’t matter how they come, but if you can get a win, that is all that matters.
These are names that should be on your bench or waiver wire that you can plug in if you are in a pinch!
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Sneaky Starts and Pivot Options
If you need a QB…
Geno Smith is averaging more fantasy PPG than Patrick Mahomes right now. Plus, this week should be a shootout. The last three games between the Seahawks and Lions had between 60 and 90 total points. This will be the first game where the Seahawks have to keep their foot on the gas to match the other team. Smith could have his best fantasy game of the year so far this week.
Sam Darnold leads the league with eight passing touchdowns and has thrown multiple in every game this season. He has topped 19 fantasy points in his last two games. Plus, the Packers have allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns entering Week 4. Do not overthink this, ride the hot hand.
Sam Darnold pic.twitter.com/KLL20OnPqZ
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 24, 2024
Aaron Rodgers looked the best we have seen him in a Jets jersey last week. He went for 281 yards and two scores, adding in 18 yards with his legs, good for over 21 fantasy points. He is more of a safe-floor play than a high-upside one. But if you are looking for a safe 15 fantasy points with the upside to get around 20, Rodgers is a great option for you.
Justin Fields is a sleeper I like in a great matchup against the Colts. They rank middle of the pack in terms of fantasy PPG to QBs, but we did see Caleb Williams get them for 363 yards and two scores last week. But even more than that, they have struggled against the run, allowing the second-most rushing yards this season. We could get a season-high in rushing yards from Fields this week. If you miss out on all these options, Andy Dalton and Bo Nix are two fallback options for you.
If you need an RB…
Braelon Allen and Bucky Irving are the top pivot options at RB this week. They are largely rostered already, but you can elevate them from your bench if need be. Allen has been more utilized than expected and very much so looks the part. He is averaging just under 15 fantasy PPG in the last two weeks. Irving has run well and HC Todd Bowles said he would get more work moving forward. His role could continue to grow as he plays well.
Emanuel Wilson had 12 carries last week for 50 yards, compared to 43 yards on 14 carries for Josh Jacobs. Wilson also outproduced Jacobs in the passing game and had a receiving touchdown. He has run well as the RB2 and if Jacobs continues to struggle, we could see even more involvement for Wilson. He is boom or bust, but there is an upside here.
All-22 on Emanuel Wilson's week 3 game against the Tennessee Titans.
In this game he had 12 rush attempts for 50 yards while catching both of his targets, leading to a 41.2% opportunity share.
He played in 41.3% of the snaps and ran 9 routes - 36% route participation rate.… pic.twitter.com/oLNYK1y6Oj
— Bruce Matson (@MetricScout) September 25, 2024
Alexander Mattison is the Raiders back you want to trust, if any. Mattison gets the valuable touches for fantasy as the passing-downs back and goal-line runner. Zamir White can do all the damage he wants between the 20s, but if Mattison comes in to vulture the TD, he will be producing more in fantasy. The floor is low but Mattison has topped 13 fantasy points in two of three games so far.
Roschon Johnson is starting to get more involved as D'Andre Swift struggles to get going. Johnson played 38 percent of the snaps last week and outran Swift on fewer carries. He was also targeted five times and saw work near the goal line. The targets alone keep him in play as a deeper option. But the chance for him to earn more work is there.
Tyler Badie led the Broncos running for 70 yards in Week 3 on just nine carries. He splits time with two other backs and did not see any passing-game usage, so the floor here is low. But neither of the Broncos' other backs has been productive, so there is at least a chance Badie could earn more work moving forward. I have to throw some deep darts in a couple of leagues this week and Badie is one of them.
If you need a WR…
Jauan Jennings has to be started after what he did last week. He caught 11 of 12 targets for 175 yards and three scores. Sure, 46.5 fantasy points will likely go down as his career day. But as long as Jennings is getting consistent playing time on one of the best offenses in the league, he needs to be elevated to the starting lineup. Just monitor Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle’s health leading up to Sunday.
Demario Douglas is coming off his best game of the season. He should have an encore in store against the Niners, who have allowed the fifth-most yards and touchdowns to receivers this season. But they have allowed the most yards to receivers lined up in the slot, which is where Douglas operates. In a game where the Pats will have to throw, and likely very quickly, Douglas is an upside sleeper.
DeMario Douglas was finally a focal point for the #Patriots offense, tying a team-high with 8 touches designed to get him in space, including:
- Well-designed pitch off motion
- Intermediate in-breakers
- Quick-hitters vs LBs as the #3 in empty
- Slants from spread
- Screens pic.twitter.com/QW3xyIO7Xz— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) September 20, 2024
Darnell Mooney has been heavily involved as of late for the Falcons. He has 15 targets in his last two games with 17.8 and 14.6 PPR points in each of those games. We may want all the volume to go to Drake London and Kyle Pitts, but it is not. Mooney is currently a strong second target for Kirk Cousins. He is in play in a game where the Falcons could be chasing points.
Michael Wilson does not leave the field for the Cardinals, but that had not translated into big fantasy production until last week. He caught eight of his nine targets for 64 yards. This is two weeks in a row now where he out-targeted Greg Dortch. Plus, when Trey McBride exited last week, it was Wilson who Kyler Murray relied on. Oh, and he has the best matchup a receiver can have against the Commanders. He is a sleeper with upside this week.
Wan'Dale Robinson has seen eight targets in two of three games. He sees short-yard targets, so his ceiling is not very high, but it does give him a pretty safe floor. This week, the Giants may be forced to throw more than they typically do in an attempt to keep up with the Cowboys. If you are looking for a safe 10 fantasy points, Robinson is your guy.
Don’t look now, but Jalen Tolbert has been getting more utilized for the Cowboys. Last week, he finished with three catches, 42 yards, and a touchdown on five targets. Two weeks ago, he went for 82 yards on nine targets. Brandin Cooks looks at the end of his rope. There is an opportunity for Tolbert to be the WR2 on a team that has thrown on over 70 percent of its plays. In a favorable matchup against the Giants, he is in play as a deep sleeper.
If you need a TE…
Tyler Conklin put up five catches for 93 yards on six targets last week. Now, he gets the Broncos, who have allowed an 83 completion percentage on passes to tight ends, as well as a 110.6 passer rating when targeted. If Patrick Surtain II can limit Garrett Wilson, that will likely lead to the Jets targeting their secondary options more. Conklin brings upside this week.
The #Patriots struggled in coverage against tight ends on Thursday night.
Tyler Conklin (No. 83) notched a career high 93 yards. Jeremy Ruckert added 2 catches for 15. pic.twitter.com/rwDB2luDNS
— Mike Kadlick (@mikekadlick) September 21, 2024
Cole Kmet is coming off a huge fantasy day. He caught 10 of 11 targets for 97 yards and a touchdown. He will not do that again, but the Bears play a very banged-up Rams defense this week. It is much better for Kmet if Keenan Allen sits again, but if you need upside at tight end (and who doesn’t), Kmet is an option for you.
Zach Ertz sees about four or five targets each week, but he gets high-percentage targets. He has caught all but one pass that has gone his way this season. He may not bring a ton of upside, but the floor is starting to look safe. Plus, this could be a high-scoring matchup, which elevates the ceiling.
Mike Gesicki saw his volume take a hit with Tee Higgins back last week, but he managed to salvage his day when the Bengals were in catch-up mode. He has topped eight fantasy points in two straight. He may not have in Week 1, but he just missed out on a touchdown then. He at least brings some upside on a good offense.
Elijah Higgins is in play if Trey McBride is out in Week 4. He will not give McBride production, but there will be opportunities for him as the lead tight end against a Commanders defense that gets torched through the air weekly. He is a low-floor, upside play for those in deep formats.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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