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Mike looks at five sneaky fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for starting pitchers in Week 18 (2024) who are on hot streaks and sees if they can sustain their success.
Finding viable starting pitching options on the waiver wire isn’t easy, especially in deeper fantasy baseball leagues. Injuries haven’t helped things, thinning the pool of viable targets.
As managers make a push for a fantasy title, streaming the right pitchers down the stretch could be key. Are Drew Thorpe, Luis L. Ortiz, Andrew Heaney, Kyle Freeland, and JP Sears just viable streaming options, or could any of them be worth rostering for the entirety of the stretch run?
Let’s dig into the stats for these five starters and discuss if they can sustain their current level of success. All roster percentages are via Yahoo.
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Drew Thorpe, Chicago White Sox (31% rostered)
Thorpe had one bad start against the Diamondbacks in which he gave up eight runs (seven earned) over 3.1 innings. He has given up two or fewer runs in each of his other six outings. What’s equally as impressive is that he has logged at least six innings in each of his last five starts.
MLB's No. 37 prospect Drew Thorpe lowers his ERA to 3.03 with his fifth straight quality start for the @whitesox:
6 IP
3 H
0 R
2 BB
5 K pic.twitter.com/0lIwaf7rXn— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 21, 2024
Thorpe has been pretty lucky with his .164 BABIP allowed, a mark that is not sustainable. He also has just a 15.4% strikeout rate to go along with his 10.9% walk rate. Four of his starts have come against the Mariners, Tigers, Rockies, and Marlins, each of which ranks inside the bottom half of baseball in runs scored. Thorpe is a viable streaming option, but his low strikeout rate and the high likelihood that his BABIP will rise don’t make him a must-roster player.
Luis L. Ortiz, Pittsburgh Pirates (30% rostered)
Ortiz was a disaster last season with his 4.78 ERA and 5.57 FIP. That makes his 2.57 ERA and 3.09 FIP this year even more surprising. While he has spent the bulk of the time coming out of the bullpen for the Pirates, he has started in four of his last five outings. Over those four starts, he allowed two runs and recorded 19 strikeouts across 24.2 innings.
Ortiz has shown a significant improvement in his command this season, dropping his walk rate to 7.0% after posting a 12.0% rate last year. He has also given up just three home runs over his 73.2 innings. A key difference for him has been the use of his cutter. After barely throwing the pitch last year, he has thrown it 20.2% of the time this year. Opponents only have a .260 wOBA against his cutter.
As impressive as Ortiz has been, he has just a 19.7% strikeout rate. He’s a viable streaming option in 12-team leagues when he has a favorable matchup, but he shouldn’t be considered as anything more than that.
Andrew Heaney, Texas Rangers (26% rostered)
Heaney has logged at least five innings and allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last five starts. During that span, he recorded 30 strikeouts across 27.1 innings. Making those stats even more impressive is that two of those five outings came against one of the better-hitting teams in baseball, the Orioles.
While Heaney has been good lately, he has a 4.39 ERA and a 4.38 FIP for his career. He can have control issues and he has just a 23.5% strikeout rate this season. There isn’t much upside that comes with rostering him, so only stream him when he has a significant matchup advantage.
Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies (11% rostered)
Freeland has been locked-in since returning from the injured list, posting five straight quality starts. During that span, he had a 1.05 WHIP. Three of those starts even came at Coors Field, making his recent success even more noteworthy.
Kyle Freeland's 7th and 8th Ks. pic.twitter.com/9o1LwZbpoa
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 11, 2024
Even with Freeland looking so impressive since his return from injury, it’s difficult to get excited about a pitcher with a career 1.42 WHIP who played his home games at Coors Field. He still has an overall WHIP of 1.54 for this season. He would have to have a significant matchup advantage to even consider streaming him in most leagues.
JP Sears, Oakland Athletics (10% rostered)
Sears has logged at least five innings and allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last four starts. He also recorded 24 strikeouts over 22.1 innings during that span. That’s not the norm for him, given that he only has a 17.6% strikeout rate this year. For his career, he has a 19.8% strikeout rate.
Even with his recent hot streak, Sears has a 4.49 ERA and a 4.78 FIP for the season. He has given up 1.5 HR/9 for his career and has a modest career 1.27 WHIP. He can be useful as a streamer, especially when he starts at his pitcher-friendly home park. However, be wary of him when he doesn’t have a matchup in his favor or when he faces teams that hit a lot of home runs.
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