Seven under Seven: DraftKings NFL DFS Pivot Plays for Week 17

December 31, 2021

Thunder Dan Palyo gives you his top seven plays on DraftKings for tournaments in Week 17 of the 2021 NFL season. These players are all projected to be low-owned in tournaments this week.

The penultimate week of the NFL season is upon us and with no Thursday or Saturday games (or byes), we finally have a full 14-game slate with only four teams not playing on Sunday afternoon. I hope you played a few guys featured in this piece last week as Joe Burrow was the highest-scoring QB on the slate, Mecole Hardman found his way into the end zone, and Isaiah McKenzie had himself a career day against the Patriots (and was only around 1% owned in tournaments).

As someone who writes, edits, and digests a lot of DFS content during the week, I often see the same players recommended in article after article across the industry. There are dozens of fantasy football or DFS sites these days and there's no shortage of content to consume. But so many of these articles just recommend the same plays over and over again, right? Not me - not in this article, at least.

If you want some chalky recommendations, you can check out some other articles on our site or others. And if you're looking for cash game plays, you've come to the wrong place. This article is going to focus on GPP plays only and I will attempt to unearth some potential slate-winning plays that are projected to be low-owned. The goal each week is to find seven players that are projected under 7% ownership on Sunday who have the potential to win you a lot of money. Let's see what we can do. Here are my top low-owned pivots for the main slate on DraftKings on Sunday, January 2nd, 2022.

Quarterback NFL DFS Pivots

Patrick Mahomes ($7,800) @ Cincinnati: 4% Projected Ownership

With such a large number of QBs to choose from, we should see the ownership on them really spread out. When I first looked at this slate, I'll admit I skipped over Mahomes pretty quickly to look at some more affordable options and that's what I think a lot of DFS players will do this week, too. Josh Allen is the guy that many will pay up for against Atlanta, but Mahomes has just as much upside in this spot against the Bengals in my opinion.

I have Mahomes with the fifth-best matchup of any QB on the slate and this game checks in with the second-highest total on the board at 51 points. I have a lot of respect for what the Bengals have done this year, especially on offense and with their front-seven really improving against the run. But their secondary is still the weak link on this team and this game sets up as one where Mahomes may need to throw 40+ times.

Mahomes made easy work of the Steelers last week and didn't even need to throw much in the second half nor did he have to lean on Tyreek Hill all that much. This week, he gets Travis Kelce back and will have Hill, Kelce, Hardman, and Pringle all at his disposal. Mahomes against a pass-funnel defense in a game with a high total - what's not to like there? This game is very stackable and my preference would be to run Mahomes with one of his pass-catchers and bring it back with a guy like Joe Mixon or Tee Higgins.

Running Back NFL DFS Pivots

Devin Singletary ($5,400) vs. Atlanta: 7.5% Projected Ownership

I have to admit, this stat surprised me a bit when I saw it.

RBs with at least 75% of their team's backfield touches over the last month

Najee Harris - 91%
Sony Michel - 91%
David Montgomery - 85%
Jonathan Taylor - 84%
Josh Jacobs - 78%
Joe Mixon - 77%
Devin Singletary - 75%

— TJ Hernandez (@TJHernandez) December 30, 2021

We haven't thought of Singletary in the same category as these other "bell-cow" backs but he's certainly moved into that role for Buffalo over the last month and is posting the type of numbers that we DFS players should be paying notice to. Singletary has always been appealing due to his passing game chops, but with 63 carries over the last five games, he's finally getting the volume we are looking for as well.

While Josh Allen and his pass-catchers have an elite matchup against this Atlanta secondary, Singletary has a great matchup of his own as Atlanta ranks 25th in run DVOA defense and has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to running backs this season. As huge home favorites, it's certainly reasonable to think that the game script could favor Singletary and the running game if the Bills get up big early. I absolutely love him at this price and I'm hoping the glut of other playable backs in this range keeps his ownership down in single digits.

Rashaad Penny ($6,100) vs Detroit: 5% Projected Ownership 

Penny has exploded onto the scene with two huge performances sandwiched around one stinker against the Rams. I'm willing to forgive him for struggling against a good Rams run defense. Let's talk instead about those other two games. In good matchups against the Bears and Texans, Penny ran for 137 and 135 yards, respectively. He's been explosive too, breaking off some big runs and averaging nearly eight yards per carry in those games.

Detroit is a team we have targeted with backs all season, so why would we shy away from Penny in this spot? Seattle has shown they are still committed to running the ball first and foremost, meaning that Penny should have every opportunity to have a big day on the ground. A lot of folks forgot what kind of dynamic runner he could be since he has missed so much of the last few seasons due to injury. He's well worth investing in this week at this price as this truly is a "smash spot" (sorry for the cliche).

Wide Receiver NFL DFS Pivots

CeeDee Lamb ($7,100) vs. Arizona: 7% Projected Ownership

Picking a Dallas receiver to use in DFS the last few weeks can be a challenging and frustrating exercise. With the return of Michael Gallup, we've seen all three of the Cowboys' receivers end up splitting the targets pretty equally which is great for their offense, just not for our DFS lineups.

Of the three, however, Lamb does have the most targets and probably the most secure role in this offense. He runs a large variety of routes and has made a lot of big plays for this team this year. He clearly has the confidence of his quarterback, who has looked his way in tough spots. His ability to run after the catch gives him some nice upside too as we've seen him break some big plays that way.

What I am really saying here is that if I have to play one Cowboys receiver, it's Lamb. And with Dallas having one of the highest team totals on the slate and facing a mediocre Arizona secondary, we should be interested in their passing game for our DFS lineups.

Antoine Wesley ($3,600) @ Dallas: 2.5% Projected Ownership

I'm staying in the same game here, but I'll keep it short and sweet. Wesley was targeted eight times two weeks ago against the Lions and then four times last week against the Colts, pulling in one of those targets for a touchdown. With DeAndre Hopkins out and Rondale Moore looking dicey for this week, Wesley could end up operating as the third receiver for Arizona - a pass-heavy offense that loves to use three-receiver sets.

I love Zach Ertz this week, but so does everyone else. If you want to be different from the pack, run Wesley out there in lineups and hope that Trevon Diggs puts the clamps down on Christian Kirk and forces Kyler Murray to look Wesley's way. He's got good size and a growing role in this offense, I'm buying in this week as I think Arizona will need to throw it a bunch in this game.

Hunter Renfrow ($6,500) @ Indianapolis: 5% Projected Ownership

It's looking very unlikely that Darren Waller will play for the Raiders this week, which is too bad because their offense could really use a boost and this is an absolute must-win game for them. Indy has a solid run defense and I expect them to stuff the box and look to take away Josh Jacobs and the running game, thus forcing Derek Carr to try to beat them.

Renfrow is the type of possession receiver that every QB loves to have. He excels at running short and intermediate routes and working the middle of the field, much like a tight end usually does. Waller's extended absence has been the main reason why Renfrow emerged in this offense and for a span of three weeks (Weeks 12-14), he was one of the top-scoring wideouts in the entire NFL.

Renfrow relies on volume for much of his scoring, but he does have six touchdowns this season too and a 29% red zone target share. With a pass-heavy game script likely for the Raiders, I think Renfrow could have plenty more targets coming his way this week.

Tight End NFL DFS Pivots

Tyler Higbee @ Baltimore ($4,000): 4% Projected Ownership

I've gone on record now a bunch of times with my love for targeting Baltimore's secondary and this week sets up nicely for the Rams receivers. While many will flock to Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. (and rightfully so, they are great plays), I think Higbee is the guy that gets overlooked despite an equally good matchup.

The Ravens have allowed the ninth-most points to tight ends this season. Higbee has a reliable role in this offense, averaging a little over five targets a game. So far, he's only scored three touchdowns despite being a big red zone target for Stafford. While Kupp and Michel are the most likely players to score for the Rams this week, Higbee certainly has a solid shot at getting in the end zone, too, and has a 17% red zone target share. The price is right and the opportunity should be there.

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